Alex Rios to White Sox?

Rumor now has it that the White Sox are the team that claimed Alex Rios on waivers.  I sent an email on Friday to Henry Schulman of the SF Chronicle, and a couple of hours later he posted a blog item saying that the Giants’ official he talked to said strongly hinted that the Giants were not the claiming team (it’s against Baseball rules to say who is put on waivers or what teams claim the player placed on waivers — that’s why it’s a big secret).

If it was the White Sox, then the question is whether they have to give up any players to get him or just assume his contract.  Presumably, there are talks going on right now between the ChiSox and the Blue Jays as to the parameters of Rios changing teams.

It seems clear to me that any players the Jays get in exchange for Rios will be essentially an indirect sale, because the better the prospect they get, the more of Rios’ contract the Jays have to continue paying.  Some commentators think that the Jays will simply allow the claiming team to take Rios and all of his contract, so that the Jays can use the savings to sign cheaper (and better?) free agents this winter.

Getting nothing in return but dumping 100% of Rios’ salary makes sense to me (although it certainly wouldn’t hurt the Jays to ask the ChiSox to put together a list of ten players they’d be willing to sell at a price(s) certain).  In this Winter’s free agent market, $60+ million in savings will buy a lot of ballplayers between now and 2014.

I think that this coming free agent market will be heavily determined by how deep the Yankees go in the post-season this year.  If they go as far as the World Series, I doubt they will sign three more gigantic contracts like the ones they gave C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Texiera last off-season.  If they make the World Series and particularly if they win it, my guess they only give out only one gi-normous contract and make one or two smaller signings to fill in holes.

The Mets have not made the money they were hoping to this year, what with the new ballpark and all.  In New York, the fans expect a winner and the Mets are currently seven games under .500.  If their finances are hurting, the Mets may not be as active as they have been the last few off-seasons.

If the New York teams don’t spend money like drunken sailors, it will depress the whole market.  Derek Lowe’s $60 million contract with Atlanta is the prime example.  Once the Yankees scooped up Sabathia and Burnett, Lowe was the best guy left for all the other teams that needed a starter to bid on.

In the current market with the economy looking like it will pick up again about the time the 2010 season starts, teams would be wise, in the right circumstances to sign the tweener free agents to two and three year contracts, while they can lock them in to what will certainly be below-market annual rates in an off-season or two.

For example, I kind of think the Nationals made a mistake signing Adam Dunn to a two year contract rather than a three year deal.  The third year would the year that Dunn turns 31, which is a pretty good age to bet on a last peak season.  Of course, many commentators will say that Dunn, because of his awful defense, isn’t worth $10 million a year.  However, if you like him enough to sign him for two years at $20 million, you should at least consider three years at $30 million.  If nothing else, he sure does hit a lot of long flies.