The 6 Biggest Flight Risks of the 2015 NBA Unrestricted Free-Agent Class
Midway through the 2014-15 NBA regular season is no time to start thinking about free agency.
Oh, wait. Yes it is.
Free agency won't officially begin for almost six months, but the prep work is already underway. Certain teams, such as the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers, have structured their entire financial outlooks around this summer. These offseason ventures will try to land the biggest of names, poaching valuable players from other teams.
Who might those flight risks be? That's why we're here: to find them.
Figuring out which unrestricted free agents are liable to leave is all about circumstance. Positional logjams, opportunities—or lack thereof—to win and eventual price tags all play a part in determining futures. Simply put: If a player doesn't definitively fit into a team's long-term vision, or if an incumbent squad loses its luster, there's room to speculate. And that room is our home.
Primary focus will lie with just unrestricted free agents. The restricted free-agent portion has already been done. (You're welcome.) Interest will also be limited to household names. Relative unknowns (LeBron James) have their place; it's just not here. This space is for the stars (Ekpe Udoh).
Now, let's see which free-agents-to-be might get their Nelly Furtado on this summer.
Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets
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Al Jefferson's free-agency case is one of the most interesting out there.
The 30-year-old behemoth holds a player option worth $13.5 million next season. Smart people would have him opt in, play through 2015-16 and then hit the open market that summer to an assumed salary-cap eruption.
But the Charlotte Hornets' ever-shifting state complicates matters. They're not the Eastern Conference contender they were supposed to be upon signing Lance Stephenson. Ten games under .500, they'll be lucky to reach the playoffs as a No. 8 seed. Jefferson might not want to spend at least another year with what will be a fringe postseason team at best.
Having missed a chunk of 2014-15 with a groin injury, Jefferson also has every incentive to secure a long-term deal sooner rather than later.
He's already on the wrong side of 30, and his per-game numbers were falling prior to being sidelined. Knowing Father time is seldom kind to big men not named Tim Duncan, Jefferson has the opportunity to chase a three- or four-year deal this summer, when his stock is still comparable to a 20-point, 10-rebound contributor.
And if you're the Hornets, that's a tough investment to make. They know their ceiling with Jefferson as a centerpiece, and they've already committed four years and tens of millions of dollars to Kemba Walker. Sinking even more money into a mediocre model isn't a given.
If Jefferson decides to explore free agency, this marriage—its flare from last season having flamed out—could be headed for a mutual divorce.
Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
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Waiving Josh Smith has changed everything and nothing for the Detroit Pistons.
There's no question they're a better squad without him. They rank in the top five of both offensive and defensive efficiency since he left, and their 9-2 record is exceeded only by the Atlanta Hawks' 12-1 showing during this span.
All signs point to the Pistons moving up in the world.
They do not, unequivocally, point to Greg Monroe's return.
Ditching Smith certainly helps their case, but it's not a deal-sealer. Monroe has been considered good as gone since the moment he put pen to paper on his $5.5 million qualifying offer, eschewing a restricted free-agent payday that would have been worth tens of millions of dollars more.
Now, as an impending unrestricted free agent, he'll have the right to sign with any team. And the Pistons, for all their floor-spacing improvements, already have another big man on the roster in Andre Drummond.
Which is to say, neither side really needs each other. Coach and president Stan Van Gundy likes to run one-in, four-out lineups, making a Monroe-Drummond pairing overkill.
While they both still start, this duo is seeing under 16 minutes of action together per game since Smith's exit, severely limiting their individual playing time. Monroe is averaging just 29.3 minutes of burn overall and 30.1 over the last 11 games. Why would he return to Detroit when he could receive more playing time and a comparable contract elsewhere?
And, to that end, why would the Pistons invest serious money in Monroe when they have more pressing needs elsewhere? A portion of Smith's salary will count against their books for the next five years, and every penny matters more than usual when teams pay players they don't actually employ.
This, then, is a partnership still in danger of dissolving. Out of necessity or preference, the Pistons and Monroe may still be streaking toward a future without one another.
Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Thaddeus Young could be on the move...again...even before free agency.
Sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein the Timberwolves are willing to move Young as they try to expedite their rebuild, which makes sense. The five-win New York Knicks and eight-win Philadelphia 76ers are inching in on Minnesota's lottery territory. Flipping Young for draft picks and roster fodder allows a six-win team to tank further.
It also ensures the Timberwolves won't lose him for nothing.
Prior to being traded from the Sixers, a source told Liberty Ballers' Jake Fischer that Young planned to opt out of his contract this coming summer. Though he could still opt in for $9.7 million and try to take advantage of the impending cap boon, it's hard to argue against him finally having control over his future.
Another trade puts him on another team. If that team is the Brooklyn Nets, he's tethered to yet another tear-down project. Rather than consign himself to more losing and a third system in two seasons, he can capitalize on his market value, joining a squad and situation of his choice.
As one of just 10 players averaging at least 13 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.5 steals per game, Young will have his options. Pushing 27, he's a little old for Minnesota's tastes, but he's a jack-of-all-offensive-trades who could push an aggressive contender over the top.
With Love assuredly staying in Cleveland, this summer's free-agent class will be especially light on stretch forwards. Young's three-point stroke falls short of reliable (31.8 percent this season), but his potential to space the floor alone guarantees he'll be fielding annual offers well north of the $9.7 million he'll earn otherwise.
Temptations that lucrative are hard to pass up—especially when the likely alternative has you filling the box score for a lottery-doomed contingent.
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
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Let's try this thing, where we don't just assume Marc Gasol will return to the Memphis Grizzlies. It's possible, sure. Maybe even likely. But his return is not a foregone conclusion.
"I won’t say no to anything right now," he said when the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina asked him about joining the Los Angeles Lakers. "It’s not something I have in front of me right now. If it’s presented to me, I’ll think about it. If not, I won’t."
Leaving the Grizzlies would be difficult. They can offer Gasol the most money, and he has longstanding ties to the city of Memphis. The Grizzlies, though, have pigeonholed themselves to an uber-specific core.
Trading for Jeff Green upgraded their athleticism on the wing. He is a more valuable contributor than Tayshaun Prince, and there is no arguing otherwise. But if he opts into the last year of his deal for $9.2 million, the Grizzlies will be capped out—or close to capped out—before re-signing Gasol.
Almost zero flexibility is fine and dandy if they finish this season as NBA champions. If they don't, or even if they make it to the Western Conference Finals again, they're a less appealing team for being rigidly bound to a cast that isn't good enough.
One of Gasol's free-agent suitors, meanwhile, is expected to be the reigning-champion San Antonio Spurs, according to the New York Daily News' Frank Isola. Should they come calling, Gasol will have to listen.
As CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote:
"San Antonio, however, presents everything a smart basketball player wants. A team-first attitude (which Gasol has and loves), a plethora of gifted passers and shooters (again, check), international flavor (Gasol spent his adolescence in Memphis but is still Spanish, you know?) and Gregg Popovich (the best coach he could ever play for).
It's a small market, it has an established hierarchy of talent, it is always in contention, the ownership, management, and coaching staff is stable (and you can bet Popovich will re-think retirement if he gets to coach Gasol into his late 30's along with Kawhi Leonard).
That would be tempting.
"
Gregg Popovich and crew won't be the only ones who make a pitch either. James and Love aren't going anywhere, so Gasol instantly vaults to the top of this year's free-agent ladder. Any team that needs a defensively dominant center who boasts a vast offensive skill set will be in play.
So, every team with cap space. And when an excess of suitors is involved, the risk for flight is not only there, but it's greater than usual.
Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns
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Goran Dragic better start practicing his goodbye handshake. He may need it.
Never before has there been a point guard logjam like what the Phoenix Suns have. That's how it seems, at least. They employ three starting-level floor generals in Dragic, Isaiah Thomas and Eric Bledsoe and aren't above running all of them simultaneously.
Innovative? Yes. The Suns rank fifth in offensive efficiency, and they're scoring at even higher rates when all three share the court.
Sustainable? Eh.
Phoenix invested nearly $100 million in Thomas and Bledsoe over the offseason. Dragic, though his numbers are down, is due for a significant raise from the $7.5 million (player option) he'll earn next season. Keeping this three-headed monster intact demands the Suns pour even more funds into the league's deepest position. That's in addition to whatever else they have to spend.
Gerald Green and the newly acquired Brandan Wright will both be free agents this summer, and each fills a need. Green is one of their best perimeter defenders and three-point marksmen; Wright provides rim protection, an area in which the 28th-ranked Suns struggle.
League sources did tell Bleacher Report's Howard Beck that Phoenix could decide to break up its backcourt midseason, trading one of Bledsoe, Thomas or Dragic. If it's one of the former two, Dragic's chances of staying increase. If the Suns do nothing, he remains a self-admitted flight risk.
“Every team that is going to be available for me is going to be an option," he said in December, per the New York Post's Marc Berman.
One of those options will certainly be the Suns themselves—though as long as their backcourt remains this crowded, it's difficult to call them favorites.
Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
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Sometimes, the law of numbers isn't fair. This is one of those times.
It would be foolish for the Trail Blazers to willingly part ways with Wesley Matthews. He's tying a career high in points per game (16.1) and banging in nearly 40 percent of his long balls. He's also one of the biggest reasons the Blazers rank third in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Opponents are shooting 7.5 percentage points below their season average when he's defending them. That differential soars to minus-10.4 from behind the three-point line, which is huge, knowing the Blazers' defensive system relies on their wings reading and reacting to screens and jump shots.
Consider too that Klay Thompson—the ultimate three-and-D guy—is giving up a much higher number of his contested three-pointers (32.8 percent, compared to Matthews' 25.2). Now, while Matthews won't cost Thompson-like money (four years, roughly $70 million), he could command nearly double the $7.2 million he's bringing home now.
Paying him something like $10 million-$12 million annually would be steep for the Blazers, even with the salary cap expected to explode.
Free-agent-to-be LaMarcus Aldridge is guaranteed a max contract, and Robin Lopez will be due for a new deal. Damian Lillard will also be up for an extension. Whether he signs one or waits for summer 2016 is almost irrelevant. The Blazers have to plan for his payday.
Oh, and to top it all off, Nicolas Batum will hit the open market in 2016 as well.
It's entirely plausible Matthews winds up pricing himself out of Portland's range. The team is thriving and holds the Western Conference's second-best record, but its bench, while improved, is still middle-of-the-road on both ends, per HoopsStats.com.
Still needing to fill out the rotation, and approaching a bevy of contractual crossroads, the Blazers may wind up losing one of their most pivotal players. And given how much Matthews will inevitably cost, if they're going to lose anyone, it could be him.
*Statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played Jan. 13, 2015. Salary information via HoopsHype.
