Fantasy Football: Daily League Guide to Conference Championship Weekend

Lost in the conference championship hoopla is the disturbing fact this is the last weekend we can legally play daily fantasy football this season. Laws require there to be more than one game on the slate, and the Super Bowl doesn't cut it.

Bleacher Report gets you prepared for your final potential cash grab with its guide to the matchups. We break down the Las Vegas numbers, the injury report, statistically significant fantasy matchups and rank all of Sunday's plays by position in this slideshow.

This is your definitive guide to going out a daily fantasy winner. 

Note: Practice participation information comes from the official NFL injury report (credentials required), all dollar values are from the games at DraftKings.com and all references to fantasy points against specific positions are derived from FFToday.com.

How Las Vegas Should Make Us Lean...

Las Vegas' numbers can help you figure out where the points, offensive production and potential shootout can come. Both favorites look like pretty solid bets at home, but the fact two road dogs have elite quarterbacks can make the games exciting late...and therefore loose statistically.

That is what we like to see in fantasy.

If you are reading between the lines below the Seahawks cover at home in a game that stays under the total. In the nightcap, the Patriots win but don't cover the touchdown spread and the game goes over its fairly high number. That makes the Colts-Pats game the far more favorable one for stacking purposes.

All betting information, lines and trends are courtesy of Odds Shark.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Favorite: Seattle Seahawks -7.5, -325 (Green Bay Packers +250)

Total: 46.5

• Packers 1-8 straight up and against the spread the past nine games as road underdogs
• Packers 1-3 against the spread the past four road games (2-2 straight up)
• Packers 6-3 straight up the past nine meetings with Seahawks (4-3-2 against the spread)
• Seahawks have won eight straight as playoff favorites, 5-2-1 against the spread
• Seahawks 7-0 straight up the past seven games (6-0-1 against the spread)
• Seahawks 5-1 straight up and against the spread the past six playoff games
• Seahawks 23-7 against the spread the past 30 home games (27-3 straight up)
• Over 6-3 in past nine meetings
• Under 3-0 in Green Bay's past three road games
• Under 3-1 in Seattle's past four home games

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

Favorite: New England Patriots -7, -300 (Indianapolis Colts +240)

Total: 53.5

• Patriots 0-5 against the spread in conference championship round since 2005 (2-3 straight up)
• Home team has won and covered four prior playoff meetings of Colts and Pats
• Colts 0-6 straight up the past six road games vs. AFC East (2-4 against the spread)
• Colts 0-5 straight up the past five meetings with Patriots (2-3 against the spread)
• Colts 3-8 straight up and against the spread the past 11 road playoff games
• Colts 3-7 straight up the past 10 games as road underdogs (4-6 against the spread)
• Patriots 3-9 against the spread as playoff favorites since 2008
• Patriots 17-1 straight up the past 18 home games (12-6 against the spread)
• Patriots 4-10 against the spread the past 14 playoff games (7-7 straight up)
• Under 10-3 in Indy's past 13 road playoff games (6-1 last seven)
• Over 6-0 in past six meetings
• Over 9-1 in Indy's past 10 road games vs. AFC East (7-0 last seven)
• Over 6-0 in New England's past six home games vs. AFC South
• Over 11-3 in New England's past 14 home games

Odds to win 2015 Super Bowl XLIX

• Seattle Seahawks 5-4 
• New England Patriots 9-5 
• Green Bay Packers 11-2 
• Indianapolis Colts 7-1

Super Bowl Exact Matchup

• New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 10-13 
• New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 4-1 
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks 13-4 
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers 9-1

Green Bay Packers Injury Report

QB Aaron Rodgers (Calf)

Rodgers ($7,800) has been playing through his troublesome calf and winning, so that isn't going to keep anyone from using him. The question is whether it can limit his effectiveness against the NFL's No. 1 defense (No. 1 against the pass). His matchup has him as the most affordable quarterback on the board this week.

The Seahawks publicly are not buying Rodgers is limited in any way as a passer, even if his mobility is down and he has to play the entire game out of the shotgun or pistol formations to keep him from dropping back. Strong safety Kam Chancellor, a player who usually would have to chance him down out of the pocket, said in Thursday's news conference, per the CBS Sports transcript:

"

I'm not really concerned on his hobbly or wobbly or calf, whatever. I'm concerned about Aaron Rodgers. If he's in that game, no matter how he's feeling, he's still Aaron Rodgers. He's capable of making plays, capable of getting the ball downfield, getting it to his receivers, just running their offense, so you've got to respect a guys like that. You can't—no matter what's wrong with him—you can't just doubt him or say that it's going to be a little different because he's hobbly and wobbly.

"

Fantasy owners should approach the decision to buy Rodgers the same way. You buy him based on his arm, not his legs. The question is whether the matchup is too difficult, especially if you expect the game to play under the 46.5 total.

DE Josh Boyd (ankle), RB Eddie Lacy (knee), G Josh Sitton (toe)

They each practiced on a limited basis Thursday, but there should be no real effect on daily fantasy decisions here.

Seattle Seahawks Injury Report

C Max Unger (Ankle)

He has been a full participant in practice, so he should be expected to play. Quarterback Russell Wilson ($8,000) said in Thursday's news conference, per the NFLmedia.com transcript, Unger makes a difference, but the Seahawks have groomed players to play his spot this season:

"

To have Max Unger back, that's a huge thing. He's been playing great football for three years since I've been here and this year, when he's been in there, he's been unbelievable. To have him back in there, I think makes our offense a little more efficient, maybe just in terms of communication, just a little bit faster. He's seen so many plays and done so many things and played in so many big matchups. So that's crucial for us I think. The great thing, though, is we have other guys that can step in and play.

"

Unger's health should not concern you if you're considering spending the premium on Wilson or Marshawn Lynch ($7,600).

T Justin Britt (knee), S Jeron Johnson (elbow), DT Tony McDaniel (shoulder), TE Tony Moeaki (calf)

They all practiced in full Thursday, but there is no statistically significant daily fantasy impact with these injuries regardless.

Indianapolis Colts Injury Report

CB Vontae Davis (Knee)

Davis doesn't get the headlines of the New England Patriots' Darrelle Revis or the Seattle Seahawks' Richard Sherman, but make no mistake, Davis is as vital to his team's defensive success as anyone who plays cornerback. Davis, who tends to be used on the opposing team's No. 1 wide receiver, might even be an option to try to limit the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski ($7,800) since the Pats don't have a truly scary downfield threat with the outside receivers.

Head coach Chuck Pagano said Thursday he expects Davis to be fine for Sunday, and he praised his top corner Wednesday, per the NFLmedia.com news conference transcript.

"

To do what we like to do defensively, you've got to have guys like Vontae because we ask a lot of those guys. From a call standpoint, scheme standpoint, we put them in one-on-one situations a ton; it doesn't matter really what we call. Since he's been here, you've seen this kid grow and mature. He's really becoming a really good pro. You see his play on the field is really a byproduct of what he's doing off the field from a study standpoint, film study, meeting, practice, all those things, preparation for games on Sundays. He's really, as you said, blossomed into a really good pro.

"

Since we cannot be sure how Davis will be used, we shouldn't buy into his knee issue being a factor in daily fantasy production this Sunday.

CB Gregory Toler (groin), LB Erik Walden (knee)

Both will play and neither injury will impact the Pats' offensive production.

New England Patriots Injury Report

CB Brandon Browner (Knee)

Like the Indianapolis Colts' Vontae Davis, the Pats' Browner has been limited in practice with a knee issue. Colts head coach Chuck Pagano downplays Browner's injury impacting the game plan or the corner's effectiveness, he said in the Thursday news conference, per the NFLmedia.com transcript.

"

I fully expect him to be 100 percent. At this point playing in this game, you get well and you get well in a hurry. I don't know how, but you do. He'll be at full-strength, he'll be at full-speed, all that stuff.

"

Browner is likely to draw the assignment of covering the Colts' bigger, more physical receivers, so not T.Y. Hilton ($7,000), who stands just 5'9". Reggie Wayne ($2,800), Hakeem Nicks ($3,200) and Donte Moncrief ($3,500) are all taller than 6'0" and the guys to buy if you are looking to exploit a hobbled Browner.

QB Tom Brady (ankle), LB Dont'a Hightower (shoulder), DT Chris Jones (elbow), WR Brandon LaFell (shoulder, toe)

All are expected to play at something close to 100 percent for this time of year. There is no plausible advantages here for daily fantasy purposes.

4 Championship Sunday Fantasy Matchup Breakdowns

Here are Sunday's four most statistically significant matchups to consider when mapping out your daily fantasy lineups. For the hyped matchups to watch, check out Thursday's B/R offering on the topic.

Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks Defense

If you buy into matchups in daily fantasy, in lieu of their reduced prices because of them, you are not going to like the Green Bay Packers' offensive stars. The Seahawks were No. 1 against fantasy quarterbacks and fantasy wide receivers, and No. 3 against fantasy running backs. That is the reality of facing the NFL's No. 1 defense, which is No. 1 against the pass and No. 3 against the run.

The Packers also face all this with an Aaron Rodgers ($7,800) who cannot be expected to create with his legs because of a calf issue, an Eddie Lacy ($6,300), who was limited in practice with a knee issue, and playing in the most difficult and hostile environment in football.

You want a silver lining? The Seahawks did allow the third-most touchdown receptions to fantasy tight ends, which makes Andrew Quarless ($2,600) or Richard Rodgers ($2,000) potentially dark-horse selections.

LeGarrette Blount vs. Indianapolis Colts Run Defense

The Pats mustered nothing on the ground last week against the Baltimore Ravens, but that was the No. 1 team in fantasy against running backs. The Colts are 11th-worst. Expect a role reversal here for Blount ($4,500), who is a bargain because he rushed just three times for one yard last week. The Pats do rotate backs, including Shane Vereen ($4,300), Brandon Bolden ($2,300) and Jonas Gray ($2,800), but Blount is the best bet to do the important work—the short-yardage and goal-line stuff.

Tom Brady didn't seem to expect Gray to have a game like his flash-in-the-pan performance against the Colts in Week 11, when Gray rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns. Brady said in the Thursday news conference, per the NFLmedia.com transcript, the Pats will ride the hot hand:

"

Well (Gray has) fought through a couple tough bumps and bruises over the course of the year. Hopefully, we have all those guys ready to go, and we're going to need them all. We have a good backfield, whoever is in there, whether it's Shane or LeGarrette, Brandon. Brandon started the game last week. Jonas has done a great job when he's in there and gotten opportunities. Whoever is out there, hopefully they run it well, and if they run it well, I'm sure they'll get more opportunities as the game goes on.

"

Our pick to lead the committee is Blount. The receiving option, if your daily league gets points per receptions—the Colts did give up the fourth-most receiving yards to fantasy backs this season—has to be Vereen. Bolden is the best sleeper, because he is the cheapest and did start last week. Gray is probably not the play, despite the great game in the last meeting, especially since Bill Belichick famously relies on trustworthy veterans in crunch time.

Beast Mode vs. Green Bay Packers Run Defense

You run the football and stop the run to win championships. It is way the Seahawks are the defending champs. The have the No. 1 rush offense, in addition to the aforementioned No. 3 rush defense.

The Packers were improved against the run since moving Clay Matthews from his outside rush linebacker spot to the middle, as we wrote the above matchups link Thursday, but they still finished in the bottom 10 against the run. Also, the Pack gave up 123 yards and a touchdown to DeMarco Murray last week.

We could see a scenario unfold where Marshawn Lynch ($7,600) cracks 100 yards and multiple touchdowns, as the Seahawks play keep away from Rodgers.

Donte Moncrief vs. New England Patriots' Nickel Defense

While the Pats are great at taking away team's primary receivers, they haven't been infallible against the pass. After all, Joe Flacco did manage 292 yards and four touchdowns. Moncrief ($3,500) looks like a great buy if you expect Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to be matched up regularly on T.Y. Hilton ($7,000) and Reggie Wayne ($2,800). We like Moncrief over Hakeem Nicks ($3,200) because Moncrief started last week and drew more targets, even if Nicks got the circumstantial red-zone touchdown.

Moncrief's recent production and increase in snaps are the most significant difference in the Colts versus the last time the teams met (a blowout home victory by the Pats), safety Devin McCourty said in Thursday's news conference:

"

You see a guy like Moncrief making more plays than when we played them the first time. You play more, you get more reps, guys end up having different roles and they’re playing a little bit more. To me, when watching the team on film, they are doing a lot of things that they did earlier in the season, but just doing it better.

"

Ranking Championship Sunday's Plays by Position

Taking the analysis from this slideshow, here is how we rank the plays at each position relative to their DraftKings.com prices in Sunday's matchups.

Quarterbacks

1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts ($8,200)
2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks ($8,000)
3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($7,800)
4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots ($8,500)

Running Backs

1. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks ($7,600)
2. LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots ($4,500)
3. Daniel Herron, Indianapolis Colts ($5,900)
4. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers ($6,300)
5. Shane Vereen, New England Patriots ($4,300)
6. Brandon Bolden, New England Patriots ($2,300)
7. James Starks, Green Bay Packers ($2,000)
8. Jonas Gray, New England Patriots ($2,800)
9. Robert Turbin, Seattle Seahawks ($2,000)

Wide Receivers

1. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers ($7,600)
2. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks ($5,000)
3. Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts ($3,500)
4. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,200)
5. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($7,700)
6. Danny Amendola, New England Patriots ($4,500)
7. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($7,000)
8. Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots ($6,000)
9. Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks ($3,800)
10. Ricardo Lockette, Seattle Seahawks ($2,300)
11. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($4,300)
12. Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts ($3,200)
13. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts ($2,800)

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($7,800)
2. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts ($3,800)
3. Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks ($4,000)
4. Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts ($4,300)
5. Andrew Quarless, Green Bay Packers ($2,600)
6. Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($2,000)

Defense/Special Teams

Save your money here. There is no great option against these offenses.

1. New England Patriots ($3,200)
2. Indianapolis Colts ($2,500)
3. Seattle Seahawks ($3,600)
4. Green Bay Packers ($2,900)

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.