Developing Otto Porter Is of Paramount Importance to Washington Wizards' Future
The 2014-15 season is going very well for the Washington Wizards.
At 27-12, the Wizards sit in second place in the Eastern Conference despite a slew of injuries to start the season. On top of that, John Wall has grown into a legitimate superstar, Paul Pierce has fit perfectly with the team and Rasual Butler has come out of nowhere to spit fire from the three-point line. Things are good.
There have been a few disappointments in Washington, however, the biggest being Otto Porter's inability to find a niche in the rotation. Porter, the No. 3 overall pick in 2013, is averaging 18 minutes a game. But he's played just 16 total minutes over Washington's last four games and appears to have largely fallen out of the team's plans this year.
In the short term, that's not a huge deal. The Wizards have a stable wing rotation—a good one so long as Martell Webster works his way back to 100 percent following his offseason back surgery. But developing Porter into a productive player is of paramount importance to Washington's future.
The Wizards have hit it big with Wall and Bradley Beal, but the past few years have been littered with Washington draft busts.
In 2010, after selecting Wall, the Wizards traded up for Kevin Seraphin (No. 17) and Trevor Booker (No. 23). Seraphin gets a handful of minutes per game, while Booker failed to make much of an impact and is now suiting up for the Utah Jazz. The following year, Washington drafted forwards Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton at Nos. 6 and 18 overall. Neither are in the league anymore.
In 2013, the Wizards traded up in the second round to select Glen Rice Jr., a player they recently waived for roster flexibility alone. Drafting Wall and Beal makes up for a lot of that, but it's hard to ignore how many draft missteps Washington has made in recent years.
Should Porter fail to develop, then the Wizards will have gotten very little out of four first-rounders (including two top-10 picks) over the past five years.
It's also important to note that Washington's current wing rotation isn't exactly built to last. Pierce and Butler are both 35 or older, and Webster's injury history is troubling, to say the least.
It's no secret that the Wizards (like most teams) are hoarding cap space in hopes that Kevin Durant will sign with them in 2016. But Washington doesn't seem to have much of a contingency plan in the event that Durant goes elsewhere.
Outside of Durant, the 2016 wing market is sparse. Nic Batum and possibly Chandler Parsons (who has a player option) will be unrestricted that season, and neither would be a bad option. Washington could also take a shot at a restricted free agent like Harrison Barnes.
But any of those players would be a massive step down from Durant, and Washington has few trade chips that would allow them to acquire other good players. From that perspective, developing Porter into at least a good rotation player will be essential moving forward.
Porter's development will be interesting not only because of its importance to the Wizards but also because of how unique he is. There's literally no player in the NBA quite like him.
This season, Washington has firmly established Porter as an off-ball scorer. He's holding the ball for just 0.6 minutes per game, per NBA.com—less than almost anyone on the roster—and 70 percent of his shots are taken after zero dribbles. He virtually never creates offense for himself off the bounce.
In fact, in nearly 650 minutes on the court this season, Porter has driven the ball just 13 total times. To put that into perspective, Kendrick Perkins—perhaps the least mobile center in the league—has driven the ball 11 times.
Porter isn't the only wing in the league to do almost all of his damage off the ball. Kyle Korver is currently terrorizing the NBA in a similar role. But those other wings all take the vast majority of their shots from behind the three-point line. Just 21 percent of Porter's shots are threes, per Basketball-Reference.com, and he's hitting on 32 percent of them.
A whopping 61 percent of Porter's shots come away from the rim but inside the arc, many of them off of long, looping screens like this.
To be honest, Porter's mid-range-centric role makes him a fossil in today's pace-and-space NBA, which (correctly) values threes and shots at the rim over all else. For him to be an effective offensive player and play off the ball so often, he'll need to take and make more three-pointers moving forward.
For what it's worth, Porter has taken threes at a significantly higher rate (33 percent) when playing alongside Wall and Beal, per nbawowy! The trio have logged just 88 minutes together, but their play has been encouraging. It'll be interesting to see if Washington gives Porter more burn next to those two or opens up the offense to at least let him attempt to create more with the second unit.
Porter's current offensive role is so limiting that it's hard to imagine that he doesn't at least get some more opportunities to create for himself. He's shot 64 percent on his (sparing) drives to the rim and was an excellent playmaker in college—something he hasn't been able to flash much of in the NBA. Having even just a little off-the-dribble juice would make him a much more effective player.
Defensively, Porter has a ways to go, but he does have the basic framework of a good defender. Porter is a solid athlete who can cover a lot of court very quickly. He's also springy enough to make the occasional eye-opening play.
Opponents are shooting just 29.2 percent from beyond 15 feet and 22.4 percent (!!) on three-pointers when Porter is guarding them, per NBA.com. Both marks are far lower than those players' season averages and are emblematic of how scary Porter can be when he's closing out on shooters.
The problems with Porter's defense arise closer to the paint. He can stick with players off the dribble, but he's rail-thin (205 lbs) and is routinely knocked around if they ever get to the basket. Players are shooting 66.7 percent against him from inside six feet, which is particularly dreadful considering how good the Wizards have been at defending the rim this season.
It's going to be fascinating to watch Porter moving forward, not only because of how important his progression is to the Wizards but also because of how unique his game is right now. The future of Washington's wing rotation is very much up in the air. With improvement, Porter could make that a non-issue.
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