Bad Teams Have Bad Luck

The Nationals sent the recent MRI results on pitcher Jordan Zimmerman’s sore pitching elbow to famed (at least in baseball circles) orthopedist Dr. James Andrews, after seeing some things they didn’t like.

This is not good news for the Nats.  Jordan Zimmerman is, pending the signing (?) of Stephen Strasburg, the only thing the Nats have that might qualify as a top pitching prospect.  If his elbow tendon is shot and he needs Tommy John surgery, if hurts the Nats more than most clubs, but the Nats are most in need.

The Nats can’t seem to do anything right.  They didn’t trade off enough of their veteran players to get any grade A prospects in return, and they’ve now won seven games in a row, which is just good enough to risk their getting the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft.

Obviously, the point of professional baseball is to win, and you can’t fault a team for winning.  However, when you’re as bad as the Nats, finishing with the secord or third worst record in MLB isn’t much of an accomplishment.  They might as well be the worst and get the first pick in the 2010 Draft (or the first two picks if they won’t meet Strasburg’s/Boras’ outrageous demands.)

I’ve said these things before, but I might as well say them again.  There is simply no good reason to overspend on an amateur player like Strasburg.  If he is really as good as the hype, he will make the money in salary as a major league player.  If he gets hurt before he does anything at the major league level, like, say, bonus baby Brien Taylor, then you were a damn fool to give into his bonus demands as an amateur.

There is no doubt but that Scott Boras has a blatant conflict of interest in playing hardball with his top amateurs.  If they don’t sign and go to an Independent A league, most of the time that player will not make get a as big a signing bonus/contract the next year, because he is a year older and doesn’t have the leverage he had the year before.

This doesn’t hurt Boras at all.  In fact, it benefits him because he represents so many amateur players.  Teams know they have to pony up on a Boras client, because he isn’t afraid to say “no deal” and send his player off to an Independent A league, or the new thing, saying his top amateur will go play in Japan (this by the way, is a load of hog-wash: can you imagine a 21 year old American trying to adjust right out of amateur ball to life in Japan in leagues that are better than AAA?)  When all the contracts on all of Boras’ amateur players are added up, Boras comes out ahead

Not that I have any sympathy for any of Boras’s clients.  They are young and greedy, and they choose Boras because he has the rep of getting top dollar on every contract.  It’s more important to his clients that they get a record-setting contract, or at least one that gets every last penny on the table, than merely signing a contract that would make them rich for life if they invested the money wisely (for example, Buster Posey, the No. 5 pick in last year’s draft signed for a $6.2 million bonus, which was recording-setting for a number five pick, but was not out of the ordinary for a top pick now).

If their greed ends of up costing them money in the long-run, tough tomatoes.

Actually, at the end of the day I can’t imagine Strasburg walking away if the Nats offer him more than $12 million by the August 17 deadline, unless he is profoundly stupid.  That is a truly huge amount of money just for signing his name.  At this point, he gets it guaranteed by merely signing his name; and he starts his professional career on time and is that much closer to becoming a major player and making the real money as a major league free agent.

This much is certain: if the Nats make him a record-setting offer (anything over $10.5 million would qualify), they would be damn fools not to scream it through the press.  Why not show that Strasburg is a greedy SOB who won’t sign for a record-setting deal?

Unless you’re one of the seven or eight wealthiest teams in baseball who can afford to spend more on players than anyone else, it is a mistake to sign a player who has to get every last dollar on the table.  Unless you are one of these very wealthiest teams, signing a player to a multi-year contract making him one one of the ten highest paid players in baseball is a mistake, because one player alone isn’t going to get you a ring.

Look at the 1993-2005 Giants and Barry Bonds.  Close, but no cigar.