Colts vs. Patriots: Breaking Down New England's Game Plan

The New England Patriots have already dispatched the Indianapolis Colts once this year. Defeating Andrew Luck and a reborn Colts defense a second time, however, is anything but a given.

Here is what New England needs to do to book their trip to Arizona and continue their quest for a fourth Super Bowl championship.

Patriots Defense vs. Colts Offense

Stopping the Colts offense is a balancing act. Commit to man coverage and keep two safeties deep and Luck will kill you with his legs. Employ a mush rush and play zone and he'll slowly pick you apart. Send the blitz and he'll beat you for a big play.

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Instead, the defense needs to take away options in the passing game and make Luck beat them with his third and fourth options. The Patriots won't let T.Y. Hilton beat them. If Coby Fleener can win one-on-one matchups all day, however, they might be in trouble.

Look for New England to selectively send pressure up the middle with Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins while mixing their coverages from side to side and play to play. Luck is susceptible to making poor decisions and Bill Belichick will do everything he can to help him make one.

Patriots Offense vs. Colts Defense

The Patriots ran all over the Colts in their previous two meetings, with Jonas Gray eclipsing 200 yards on the ground earlier this year. LeGarrette Blount and Gray have combined for eight rushing touchdowns in the last two matchups. 

New England should test the Colts early and often on the ground. If they can't stop the run, Tom Brady will be more than content to shove it down their throat all game long. That would be unlike Peyton Manning, who eschewed the run game for deep passes far too often last week.

If the Colts are successful in bottling up Gray and Blount, they still have to deal with the play-action passing game. Stopping Rob Gronkowski and Michael Hoomanawanui will not be easy from "12" personnel groupings. The Colts just don't have the personnel to match up with the power run game and vertical passing game at the same time. 

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What They're Saying

The Patriots only handed the ball off seven times against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round, including none in the second half. Brady addressed whether that was due to a lack of confidence in their rushing attack:

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Look, we're comfortable with everything we're doing. I think we wouldn't be doing it if we weren't. Just the way the game turned out, when you're down twice by 14 points, just sometimes that's the way the game goes. Whatever you've got to do to win and advance, that's all that matters. Obviously, we want to be balanced. We've got to be able to run the ball really well. We've got to throw it well. We ran it great against these guys last time. We're going to need to run it really well this time. And if they stop it, then we're going to have to throw it really well. It's a 60-minute game. It plays itself out over the course of 60 minutes. The thing we've got to do is score more points than them. However we have to do it, however we have to move the ball down the field, that's what we're prepared to do. 

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New England is a game plan team. If they can run, they'll run. If they can't, they'll pass. Instead of matching a team at their strength, they'll go after your weakness. The only surprising thing is that more NFL teams don't do the same.

Tale of the Tape

Quarterback

Andrew Luck makes plays that Tom Brady can't. Brady, however, doesn't often make the same mistakes—save for the end of the first half lately—that Luck does. In the NFL, not making the big error is a requisite for quarterbacks.

Verdict: Patriots

Running Backs 

The Patriots have the talent, versatility and depth that the Colts do not. Trent Richardson—acquired for a first-round pick in 2013—was a healthy scratch last week for Indianapolis.

Verdict: Patriots

Wide Receivers

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T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Reggie Wayne match up well with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. These are two skilled groups.

Verdict: Push

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski is the best football player in this game. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are very good at what they do, so this is closer than most teams can make it.

Verdict: Patriots

Offensive Line

The Colts and Patriots both do a good job of protecting their quarterback. With Bryan Stork in the lineup, New England may have the advantage. Josh Kline's presence evens this matchup out.

Verdict: Push

Defensive Line 

The Colts D-line misses the dynamic presence of a Robert Mathis or Dwight Freeney. Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones give New England a slight advantage here.

Verdict: Patriots

Linebackers

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The secondary may get the press for New England, but Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower make this defense tick. Jerrell Freeman, D'Qwell Jackson and Bjoern Werner aren't in the same conversation.

Verdict: Patriots

Defensive Backs

Vontae Davis is playing at nearly the same level as Darrelle Revis. Greg Toler has had a decent season himself. Devin McCourty and the gaggle of strong safeties on the Patriots make the difference for New England.

Verdict: Patriots

Special Teams

These are two of the elite special teams units in the league. The punters, kickers, returners and gunners are some of the best specialists in the league.

Verdict: Push

Overall: Patriots, 6-0-3

On paper, the Patriots have a big advantage. However, if Andrew Luck stands on his head and makes play after play, the Colts can run with anyone in the league.

Wednesday's Injury Report Analysis (via Patriots.com)

DNP: Bryan Stork

Limited: Chris Jones, Brandon Browner, Brandon LaFell, Dont'a Hightower

Full: Tom Brady

It's look like Stork won't be playing in the AFC Championship Game, but the fact that he hasn't been placed on injured reserve bodes well for a possible return in the event of a Super Bowl berth.

On the Colts side of the ball, cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Greg Toler were limited.

Stats and figures courtesy of NFL.com.