Colts vs. Patriots: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

Reaching the final four is a tremendous accomplishment, but it's also becoming old hat for the New England Patriots.  Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts will mark the Patriots' fourth consecutive conference championship appearance and the ninth overall in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.

Of course, the Pats have fallen short of that elusive fourth Lombardi Trophy in each of those previous three appearances.  Under the championship-or-bust expectations in Foxborough, those seasons have thus qualified as exciting yet ultimately disappointing failures.  This season's squad looks like New England's most well-rounded in years, which would only intensify the pain of another postseason exit.

The Pats were fortunate to escape the divisional round against the Baltimore Ravens despite bringing less than their A-game—a narrow escape that likely won't be replicated again.  Issues that cropped up at the end of the regular season—a shoddy offensive line, inconsistent pass rush, etc.—again reared their heads, creating reasons for concern even as the Patriots continue to demonstrate versatility in finding different ways to win.

Once again, the Pats are on the precipice of a championship.  In the lead-up to this weekend's AFC title tilt, let's take a look at some of the most insightful mainstream analyses surrounding New England's championship chase. 

Bill Barnwell: Fumble Luck in Pats' Escape

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The Patriots' escape in the divisional round ranks as one of their closest postseason shaves during the Brady-Belichick era.  The win probability model from Advanced Football Analytics gave the Pats a mere 8 percent win expectancy at one point—the same low point New England experienced during their 2006 divisional round win over the top-seeded San Diego Chargers, a comparable playoff comeback.

Multiple factors obviously coalesced last Saturday, from shrewd coaching to timely situational execution.  However, as Grantland's Bill Barnwell points out, huge fumble luck also played an indispensable role in the victory:

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While the Ravens went up 14-0 and held a 21-14 lead at halftime...they could have stretched their lead even further with a pair of critical fumble recoveries. The ever-busy Amendola fumbled the first kickoff of the game away...A Ravens recovery would have been worth nearly 4.4 points and swung their win expectancy from 76 percent to 88 percent. Edelman then fumbled at midfield in the second quarter, but, despite being surrounded by three Ravens, managed to recover and continue a drive that ended in a touchdown.

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New England recovered both fumbles that stayed in play against Baltimore (one Kyle Juszczyk fumble went out of bounds), continuing its felicitous trend from the regular season.  According to TeamRankings.com, the Patriots recovered 57.14 percent of fumbles, the fourth-best mark in the league. 

That obviously isn't a sustainable part of the winning formula—while forcing fumbles has always been a skill, recovering them consistently has been statistically impossible.  Not surprisingly, Belichick this week has emphasized ball security by whacking at ball-carriers' arms during practice.  Losing either one of those fumbles likely would have cost the Patriots the game, and as the margin for error diminishes, they won't be as fortunate if they repeat those mistakes.

Scott Kacsmar: Pats Were Historically One-Dimensional

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The Patriots have always been an amorphous game-plan offense, unafraid to tilt their approach to press at an opposing defense's greatest weakness.  However, when they totally abandoned the run against Baltimore, Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar observes that Pats were among the most historically one-dimensional teams to win a playoff game:

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New England finished with 13 carries for 14 yards, the fewest rushing yards in postseason history for a winning team. Brady brought that total down with four kneeldowns, but he also came close to leading the team in rushing. The Patriots' running backs only had seven carries for 14 yards.

New England is just the 21st team since the 1970 merger to win a game with no more than 20 rushing yards. The Patriots already held the record for fewest rushing yards in a regular-season win in the Super Bowl era. The 1986 Patriots rushed for 2 yards against the Saints.

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Obviously, such an approach is unsustainable over the long haul, though poor rushing performances haven't affected the Pats as much as one might assume.  During the Brady-Belichick era, the Pats are 10-3 in postseason games where they average at least 4.0 yards per carry but still a respectable 9-5 when they fail to reach that benchmark, per Pro-Football-Reference.  In that same stretch, the rest of the league is 69-71 when teams fail to rush for at least 4.0 yards per carry in a playoff game.

The more concerning trend might be New England's performance against competent running teams.  Against teams that finished in the top 15 in run defense by Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, the Pats averaged just 3.09 yards per attempt. 

Neither the Colts nor the Green Bay Packers qualify for that distinction, but the Seattle Seahawks finished second against the run by DVOA.  If the two favorites prevail from the conference championships, the Patriots will almost certainly need to confront Seattle's vaunted secondary head on to move the ball.

Robert Mays: Linebackers Keying Defense

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When pundits praise the Patriots defense, the spotlight has typically shone on the secondary and its high-end talent (as we'll see shortly).  However, Grantland's Robert Mays opines that the Patriots' linebacking corps of Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones (who, by semantics, is technically considered a 3-4 OLB) holds the true key to New England's defensive improvements:

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Hitting on recent draft picks has given them relatively cheap production from a young core. Nowhere is this more obvious than with the linebacking corps that includes Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, and Jamie Collins. All drafted in the last three years, they form a trio of 25-and-under linebackers whose skill sets fit together seamlessly. And by finding players who can do a little bit of everything, New England has been able to play a more versatile brand of defense than it has in some time.

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Collins has emerged as New England's most versatile defensive chess piece this season, a huge leap forward for the second-year linebacker.  Pro Football Focus named him to its second-team All-Pro squad, illustrating how the metrics have backed up the eye test on the film. 

Ironically, Collins missed out on PFF's first team because of his partner in crime up the middle.  Hightower and Collins ranked second and third, respectively, among inside linebackers in PFF's cumulative grading, behind only Luke Kuechly (subscription required).

Chandler Jones represents more of an X-factor this week against the Colts, as the fourth-year edge-rusher missed the first meeting while recovering from his hip injury.  In that game, Akeem Ayers generated six of the Pats' 14 overall pressures on Andrew Luck.  With Ayers marginalized and the four-man rush struggling, Jones will play a central role in New England's ability to disrupt Luck and prevent him from keeping plays alive late in the down, where he's as dangerous as any quarterback in the league.

As good as the Pats secondary is, Indy's deep receiving corps will win its share of one-on-ones if Luck sets up shop in the pocket.  Thus, not only will Collins and Hightower hold important coverage responsibilities on tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, but the duo plus Jones also represent New England's best chance at pressuring Luck.  It's safe to say that the linebackers have as much pressure on them as any Patriots defender.

Bill Carollo: More 4 OL Shenanigans?

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New England's bizarre four-offensive linemen packages became a featured topic of discussion this week, almost overshadowing the actual game.  Depending on one's point of view, Bill Belichick either demonstrated an impeccable awareness of the rules to give his team a huge legal boost, or he continued his pattern of duplicitous and morally dubious behavior.  Either way, pulling that rare wrinkle on the biggest stage will go down as one of Belichick's most memorable moves.

With the team having shown its hand with three such plays, one would assume that the four O-linemen gadgets will go away.  However, as former NFL official Bill Carollo relayed to WEEI's John Tomase, there's another loophole Belichick and the Pats could exploit out of that alignment:

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But here’s a potential wrinkle we ran by Bill Carollo, a former NFL referee and the current officiating coordinator for the Big Ten — what if the Patriots target Vereen on a lateral, backwards pass, or end-around toss even after he reports as ineligible?

Carollo explained. “Any player (eligible or ineligible) can always legally receive a lateral or backward pass,” he wrote. “Ineligible players cannot receive a forward pass in the NFL unless they report as eligible to the referee prior to the snap. Then the proper mechanics is the referee will inform the defense and announce on the mic.”

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Julian Edelman's 51-yard touchdown pass was an example of the Pats using a lateral as deception.  If Vereen (or any other faux ineligible tackle) was utilized in the manner Carollo describes, it could be as part of a cross-field throwback, not unlike the one the Tennessee Titans utilized in the Music City Miracle.

Of course, Belichick likely only pulled out those plays because of New England's desperate circumstances against Baltimore.  Given how simplistic the Patriots' offensive game plan was against Indy last time, don't expect a whole lot of razzle-dazzle until the Colts prove they can stop New England's core concepts.

Pro Football Focus: Pats Secondary One of Best Units Remaining

In the first meeting against the Colts, the Patriots didn't entirely shut down Andrew Luck and the passing game, as his 7.7 yards per attempt mark was right in line with his 2014 average.  But battling Luck to a stalemate was enough given the offense's performance, and as Pro Football Focus' Ben Stockwell notes (via ESPN, subscription required), the Darrelle Revis-Devin McCourty All-Pro duo has anchored the unit:

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Revis' pairing with Devin McCourty is right there with Thomas and Sherman among the league's best corner-safety combos, and while McCourty may not have the gaudy stats in terms of interceptions and passes defended, there may not be a safer pair of hands on the back end of any defense in the league. McCourty has caught as many passes himself this postseason as he's allowed opposing receivers to catch against him (one).

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Last time, perimeter corners Revis and Brandon Browner mostly shadowed Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener, respectively, with Kyle Arrington using safety help to bracket top Indy option T.Y. Hilton.  But Wayne has since suffered an injury-induced decline, having failed to receive more than four targets since the Week 11 meeting against New England.

Thus, many have speculated that Revis may cover Hilton instead.  Since Week 12, Hilton has received 52 targets, 15 more than any other Indy receiver, per Pro-Football-Reference.  With Wayne typically shifting inside to the slot in three-receiver sets anyways, Revis and Arrington could simply switch matchups from the first meeting. 

The trick may arrive in Indy's "12" personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB), as Dwayne Allen was injured after just 14 snaps in the first meeting.  Indy may choose to play more of Allen and Fleener, thereby forcing either Patrick Chung or Tavon Wilson into heavier coverage duties (assuming the Pats counter with "Big Nickel" personnel).

The Colts defense has failed miserably in slowing down the New England offense the past three years, hemorrhaging an average of 48 points and 456 yards per game in those contests.  While no one can expect the offense to match those astronomical numbers, Indy can keep up if this game lingers in the 30s.  In that instance, it's likely that this matchup could determine the AFC's Super Bowl representative.