Are Houston Rockets in Danger of Burning out James Harden?

James Harden is an MVP candidate for the Houston Rockets, and deservedly so. He’s virtually carried the offense on his back. But is there a price to pay with that?

Harden is not only the Rockets’ leading scorer, he’s at the top of the NBA with 26.9 points per game. A large portion of those have come from the free-throw line, at which he has a league-high 335 attempts. That scoring comes with a physical toll.

Harden’s not getting a lot of time to rest, either. Only Jimmy Butler and Kemba Walker have played more minutes than his 1,379—36.3 per game. The Rockets can ill afford to sit him longer, as their offensive rating drops from 107.2 when he’s on the court to 90.5 when he’s not, according to NBA.com/Stats. That nearly 17-point differential is about as MVP-sounding of a number as you can find.

The Rockets aren’t just depending on him for scoring. He has been the most important facilitator as well, dishing 251 dimes on the season. Only seven players in the league have done more distributing.

Neither are Harden’s efforts limited to the offensive end of the court. He’s a verifiable bandit, with 70 steals. That’s good for fifth-most in the league. Maybe someone should put together all of those into a video montage.

Per Basketball-Reference.com, his per-game averages of 26.9 points, 6.6 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.8 steals have been matched by only four names historically: Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Larry Bird and Dwyane Wade. That company is about as elite as it gets.

This level of achievement comes with a downside, though. The wear and tear on Harden’s body could start to take its toll. But there’s another way of viewing this when you look at the demands the Rockets are placing on Harden.

He uses 31.7 percent of their possessions while he’s on the court and assists on 35 percent of his teammates’ basket. In the history of the league, there have only been 10 times when a player qualified for the scoring title averaged 25 points and 35 minutes with a usage over 30 and an assist percentage over 35:

Player	Season	Age	Tm	Tm Wins	MIN	PTS	AST%	USG%
James Harden	2014-15	25	HOU	58 (Pace)	36.3	26.9	35	31.7
LeBron James	2014-15	30	CLE	41 (Pace)	37.5	25.2	38.7	30.7
LeBron James*	2012-13	28	MIA	68	37.9	26.8	36.4	30.2
Derrick Rose*	2010-11	22	CHI	62	37.4	25.0	38.7	32.2
LeBron James*	2009-10	25	CLE	61	39	29.7	41.8	33.5
Dwyane Wade	2009-10	28	MIA	47	36.3	26.6	36.4	34.9
Dwyane Wade	2008-09	27	MIA	43	38.6	30.2	40.3	36.2
LeBron James*	2008-09	24	CLE	66	37.7	28.4	38	33.8
LeBron James	2007-08	23	CLE	45	40.4	30.0	37.3	33.5
Allen Iverson	2004-05	29	PHI	43	42.3	30.7	37.6	35

On the positive side, the Rockets are on pace to win 58 games, and during the previous seasons in which a player reached these benchmarks and won at least as many times (denoted by asterisks), the player in question won the MVP. Certainly, it appears that if Houston can top 60, Harden will merit the award.

No one has kept up that kind of pace and played out an entire 82-game season, though. LeBron James and Derrick Rose came close, playing in 81 each. Dwyane Wade missed three in 2008-09 and five the following year.  So there’s a good chance that sooner or later, taking this kind of beating, Harden is going to miss a game. But that’s only of partial concern.

The greater worry is how many times those teams have won championships. Only once has a player had so much demand placed on him and won a title: James in 2012-13. Even that came with the grace of a Ray Allen three to save the season.

And the more compelling fear is what has happened to the players who have done this in the year or two following the accomplishment. Derrick Rose tore his ACL the next season and has not looked the same since. Wade’s knees have been a constant source of problems since so much demand was placed on him.

Allen Iverson, who was knocked around like he lived inside a pinball machine, had two more good seasons in him, but his career went into a sharp spiral after he hit 30.

Even the seemingly indestructible James is in the longest missed-game streak of his career, which literally begin on his 30th birthday, Dec. 30 of 2014.

Wade even told ESPNChicago.com’s Nick Friedell about what kind of demands that makes on the body, referencing Rose's and his own experience. When asked what Rose needed, Wade answered:

"

It would have to be a player that can take the pressure off him from making every play. As a point guard, when you have to score so much, and have to make every big shot, and have to make all the passes, eventually it takes a toll on you throughout the season, no matter how phenomenal you are.

So just someone who can come in and take some of that pressure away. That's why I was excited not only to play with my friend but excited to play with a guy like LeBron, because it takes some of that pressure away from having to do it year after year after year. It saves you, your body.

"

There are different ways of determining what “value” means in Most Valuable Player, but the prevailing method seems to be which player an elite team relies upon the most to be elite. It’s hard to find a winner of the award who doesn’t fit that description, and it’s hard to argue that Harden doesn’t do so this season.

But the downside of that is that historically, a team that reliant on one individual is bad for the team’s postseason chances and worse for the player’s long-term health. It may be that recent acquisitions Josh Smith and Corey Brewer will be able to carry enough of the burden to help Harden.

If not, the Rockets need to make another move for someone to share the load. Otherwise, they may win the battle at the cost of the war.