2015 NBA Free Agents Who Need a Monster Second Half to Get Paid
Half of an NBA regular season can make a world of difference.
In the case of certain impending free agents looking for career paydays, it needs to make a world of difference.
Some free agents are open-and-shut cases one way or another. They're either fated for lucrative paydays (Kevin Love) or destined for trivial compensation (Ognjen Kuzmic).
Others, though, fall somewhere in the middle, their value uncertain, their next deal largely dependent on contract-year performances. And a number of those players shouldn't tout the leverage they hold in negotiations. Not yet anyway.
These eventual free agents have either underachieved or are still failing to meet expectations. We're talking unimpressive stat lines, flagrant flaws, developmental setbacks, future outlook or any other unflattering attributes. Basically, these are players who, if free agency started now, will have left much to be desired. Their careers may even be on the line in some cases.
Lucky for them, then, there's still time to increase their market value—though not much.
With roughly half of 2014-15 in the books, these in-between players have just a few months to change the scope of their looming free agency. So, for their sake, the latter half of this season better be a monstrous one.
Jeremy Lin, Los Angeles Lakers
1 of 9
Age: 26
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 43.6 percent shooting, 14.4 player efficiency rating
Moving from the Houston Rockets to the Los Angeles Lakers was supposed to be a boon for Jeremy Lin's stock. This would be his chance to separate himself from the Linsanity schtick. No assumed expectations to meet, no playoff ambitions to shoulder.
But Lin's contract-year performance hasn't yielded the intended results. He lost his starting job to a 31-year-old Ronnie Price, and his minutes are down from last season, even though the Lakers rotation is nothing if not pedestrian.
A three-game stretch against the Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers and Orlando Magic made it seem like Lin turned a corner. He averaged 14.7 points on 48.4 percent shooting, including a 45.5 percent clip from deep—a tear that left head coach Byron Scott buzzing.
“I think he’s getting more comfortable, and I think his confidence is coming back,” Scott said, per Lakers.com's Joey Ramirez. “I think he understands exactly what I want from him. It’s just a matter of going out there and doing it."
Lin then fell back down to earth in a second meeting with the Blazers, totaling nine points and three assists on 3-of-9 shooting. It's just been that kind of season for him: maddeningly up and down.
There's still time for him to salvage 2014-15, to be sure. The Lakers' maintenance program for the battered Kobe Bryant is already creating additional opportunities for others to step up; Lin should have ample opportunity to carve out his own moment.
In the meantime, Lin's move to Los Angeles is looking like a lateral one at best. He has until April to find his groove, lest he enter unrestricted free agency with his stock light-years lower than it was three years ago.
Iman Shumpert, Cleveland Cavaliers
2 of 9
Age: 24
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 40.9 percent shooting, 12.1 PER
New home, new Iman Shumpert? One can only hope.
Injuries have played a pivotal part in derailing Shumpert's career. He suffered a torn ACL during the 2012 playoffs as a rookie and his athleticism never fully recovered.
Acrobatic dunk attempts he would have once put in with ease became botched bloopers and eventually ebbed in volume. Right now, he's nursing a dislocated shoulder and is expected to miss at least the next two weeks, per the Northeast Ohio Media Group's Joe Vardon.
When healthy, Shumpert is considered a valuable three-and-D contributor. Out of 201 players to defend 200-plus plays this season, he ranked 192nd in points allowed per possession as of Jan. 5, according to ESPN Stats & Information—hardly elite. But the New York Knicks are a defensive nightmare, and Shumpert has shown he can exist within more competent systems, like that from 2011-12.
His growth as a spot-up shooter has also lend hope to a possible offensive rise. He connected on 38.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes before going down, playing a style fit for the Knicks' half-baked triangle offense.
Now on a Cleveland Cavaliers team that will strictly ask him to defend premier perimeter gunners and score off the catch, Shumpert has the chance to finally reach unmet expectations ahead of restricted free agency.
This, of course, is assuming he can get healthy—and stay healthy—for the first time in his career.
Rajon Rondo, Dallas Mavericks
3 of 9
Age: 28
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 1.7 steals, 40 percent shooting, 14.7 PER
Rajon Rondo fancies himself a max-contract superstar. This much we know. What we don't yet know is if he'll net that max deal upon hitting the open market.
"This second half of the year is a very big one for Rajon,'' Boston Celtics president Danny Ainge said earlier this month, per ESPN Boston's Jackie MacMullan. "Dallas is getting a player who is very motivated to prove he's a max guy.''
Recent numbers say Rondo isn't a max guy. Though his scoring has increased since joining the Dallas Mavericks, he's shooting what would be a career-worst 39.3 percent from the field.
Nine years later, his jumper is still considered developing. He's putting in 38.1 percent of his three-pointers with the Mavericks, but he's a lifetime 25.8 percent shooter from deep and converting under 40 percent of his attempts between three and 16 feet for his career.
If there's been one saving grace, it's Rondo's defense. His renewed efforts have been obvious since arriving in Dallas, and the Mavericks play like the league's second-best defensive team with him in the game.
Still, the Mavericks' once-historical offense has statistically regressed with him in tow. And while his reputation alone will generate a competitive free-agency market, the second half of this season will be paramount in determining whether the Rondo of today stacks up against the one from years past.
Austin Rivers, Boston Celtics
4 of 9
Age: 22
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 6.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 38.7 percent shooting, 10.0 PER
Austin Rivers only calls Beantown home for now. The New Orleans Pelicans shipped him out as part of a three-team trade that landed them Quincy Pondexter, and the Celtics are exploring a subsequent deal that will send him to the Los Angeles Clippers, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Maybe yet another change of scenery—along with the opportunity to play under his father, Doc Rivers—will jumpstart Rivers' career. He's been wildly disappointing after being selected 10th overall in 2012, and unless something changes, he'll enter free agency as an afterthought.
Part of his three-year slump can be attributed to the Pelicans. They tried to turn a born, albeit undersized, shooting guard into a secondary floor general charged with the second unit's livelihood. The results have been predictably underwhelming; New Orleans' barren bench has ranked in the top half of offensive efficiency just once since 2012-13 (in 2013-14), per HoopsStats.com.
But Rivers himself hasn't helped. His shot selection has been ghastly, and he's only just starting to find his touch from the charity stripe. Of all 190 players who have logged at least 3,500 minutes since 2012-13, in fact, River's true-shooting percentage—which accounts for three-pointers, two-pointers and free throws—ranks as the absolute worst (46.2).
Playing for his dad is unlikely to fix anything. Rivers doesn't fit the Clippers' dynamic; they're a contender that needs a small forward, not a raw combo guard. Significant burn will be equally hard to come by with the Celtics, who already give a bulk of their backcourt minutes to Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley and Evan Turner.
Wherever Rivers ends up finishing the season, he'll need to hope the second half of 2014-15 promises both more playing time and production. After all, it's not just his next contract that's on the line—it's his career.
Derrick Williams, Sacramento Kings
5 of 9
Age: 23
Free-Agency Type: Restricted(?)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 6.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 44.5 percent shooting, 12.0 PER
Disappointment has been the theme of Derrick Williams' NBA tenure. He was drafted second overall in 2011—ahead of more heralded players like Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson and Kenneth Faried—and has since failed to make good on the hype.
At 6'8", Williams has emerged as a tweener. He lacks the post-up coordination of a traditional power forward, yet he doesn't have the range of a small forward or stretch 4.
Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings have tried developing his perimeter game, but his jumper is still shaky. He's shooting 29.6 percent outside of eight feet this season, and his 32.7 percent clip from deep, while unremarkable, is the second-highest mark of his career.
Williams' role can also only be described as tenuous amid the Kings' tactical reinvention. Although he's yet to fall out of the rotation completely, he isn't far off. One night he'll log 31 minutes; four contests later he's playing 13.
Such turbulence is beyond troubling with Williams set to reach restricted free agency. Or will it be unrestricted free agency? The Kings must extend Williams a qualifying offer worth $8.7 million after this season, otherwise he'll become an unrestricted free agent, able to sign with the team of his choosing.
More established talents (Greg Monroe) would value that increased flexibility, but Williams has grossly underachieved since entering the NBA. He's never tallied an above-average PER, and the Kings have been 8.3 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor this season.
If Williams wants to be more than free-agency dreck this summer, his second half of 2014-15 must look nothing like his first three-plus years in the league. Which is to say, he must play like he has a future at this level.
Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 9
Age: 23
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 52.6 percent shooting, 16.0 PER
Tristan Thompson's unexceptional production may not matter as it pertains to his next contract. The Akron Beacon Journal's Jason Lloyd reported in September the power forward was looking for at least $11 million annually, and though he failed to reach an extension agreement with the Cavaliers, he'll eventually get his money.
Wrote CBS Sports' James Herbert at the time:
"Yeah, that's a lot of money, and he hasn't proved himself to be an above-average power forward yet. But there are a bunch of things at play here, most notably the fact that Thompson's agent, Rich Paul, also represents LeBron James. The assumption is that, since Paul brought James to Cleveland, the organization will reward him with a huge deal for Thompson.
"
Connections to James matter, whatever they may be. Look no further than James Jones and Mike Miller joining up with Cleveland in the first place. Shoot, look at the three-year, $30 million extension the Cavaliers gave an injury-prone Anderson Varejao, whom James referred to as one of his "favorite" teammates in his return essay for Sports Illustrated.
Off-court relationships aside, it's difficult to validate paying Thompson well into eight figures per year based off production.
Not to say he isn't having a solid season. He's proved valuable off the Cavaliers bench and ranks second in offensive rebounding percentage among qualifying players, behind only Andre Drummond. Cleveland is also pumping in an eye-popping 121.7 points per 100 possessions when he joins Kyrie Irving, Love and James on the floor.
Yet, in today's game, Thompson's offensive skill set is trending toward extinction at the power forward spot. He lives inside eight feet of the bucket, where more than 85 percent of his field-goal attempts come. Once he steps outside eight feet, he's shooting 20 percent.
Logging minutes beside a floor-spacer like Love has helped mask some of Thompson's offensive flaws thus far. But if the goal this season is to justify a lucrative payday coming his way, he'll need to pick up his play on the back side of 2014-15.
Maintaining the status quo only opens up him and his inevitable contract to inconvenient criticism.
Thomas Robinson, Portland Trail Blazers
7 of 9
Age: 23
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 3.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.3 blocks, 50 percent shooting, 8.6 PER
Two-plus years worth of insignificant playing time can work for Thomas Robinson in a way. He's never cracked 16 minutes per game and remains something of an unknown in terms of his long-term potential. And mystery sells.
Robinson will want to pad his prorated stat totals ahead of free agency, though. He's already averaging a double-double per 36 minutes, but his 8.6 PER is a career low.
Spending time within a mostly closed Portland Trail Blazers rotation doesn't help. The Blazers depend on six or seven guys to see them through, and Robinson isn't one of them. He's basically there to bridge the gap between LaMarcus Aldridge's stays on the bench.
Some of this, though, is Robinson's own doing. He's explosive and boasts an endless motor, but he's failed to expand his offensive game, which was limited to begin with.
This season's 33 percent clip between eight and 16 feet would be a stain on any power forward's record. Today's NBA values floor spacing, something Robinson doesn't yet provide. And though his role within the Blazers rotation isn't conducive to monstrous performances, his upside needs to extend beyond a bustling motor.
Putting some concrete stats and visible versatility to his endless activity is the only way his foray into free agency becomes something more than a footnote.
Jimmer Fredette, New Orleans Pelicans
8 of 9
Age: 25
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 3.0 points, 0.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.4 steals, 32.5 percent shooting, 20.8 percent three-point shooting, 7.4 PER
It's finally Jimmer Time! Maybe.
A hole has opened up in the Pelicans' backcourt rotation with Rivers gone—though New Orleans is preparing to sign Nate Wolters, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein—and the oft-jilted Jimmer Fredette is the logical choice to fill it.
Only Fredette hasn't been playing like the unfairly neglected scorer who drew praise from cult-ian supporters for his per-36 minute stat lines. The Pelicans have hardly given him free rein, and he does have a few, small-scale offensive outbursts to his name this season, but the numbers no longer tell a tale of unjust oversight.
Here's how Fredette's per-36 minute lines for this season measure up against those from his previous three:
| First 3 Seasons | 16.9 | 41.7 | 40.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 103 |
| 2014-15 | 10.6 | 32.5 | 20.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 93 |
While New Orleans' offense has held steady during those times Fredette actually plays, he's seldom looked the part of a complementary scorer. Most of his made buckets aren't coming off assists, and he's shooting a grisly 21.1 percent on catch-and-shoot opportunities.
With Eric Gordon starting to play like an actual basketball player and the incoming Quincy Pondexter a more seasoned veteran, Fredette's opportunities will still be limited. But the Pelicans' secondary backcourt rotation—even with Tyreke Evans bowing out of the starting five—remains thin.
Much of Fredette's free-agent value, however competitive or irrelevant, rests on him finally deepening it.
Reggie Jackson, Oklahoma City Thunder
9 of 9
Age: 24
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 42.1 percent shooting, 15.3 PER
Reggie Jackson isn't having an especially bad season, per se. His numbers imply just the opposite. He's setting new career highs in most categories, and he remains one of just 15 players averaging at least 14.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Jackson has also shown time and again he's starting material.
As ESPN.com's Royce Young explained:
"He's a player the team needs, a dynamic creator and attacker who can fit alongside Westbrook in the backcourt, providing the Thunder that third perimeter scoring option they prefer. On the rare occasion Westbrook and Durant are off, Jackson has the talent to fill the void, like he did in Game 4 last postseason against Memphis, when he saved the series for the Thunder by scoring 32 points.
"
All of which should price Jackson out of the Oklahoma City Thunder's range this summer, assuming they don't trade him first. But while that can be considered a success for Jackson on many levels, he's yet to prove he can hang with the elite point guards.
Through the eight games that Jackson piloted the offense without both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, the Thunder ranked 29th in efficiency. Leading a skeleton crew against mostly whole opponents no doubt skewed results, but a bottom-two offensive showing is not a selling point, regardless of circumstances.
Jackson himself also remains an unpolished product. He's shooting 31.7 percent outside eight feet of the basket, and his deficient spot-up shooting (24.4 percent on the season) brings his ability to coexist with other ball-dominant playmakers who aren't Westbrook or Durant under question.
By no means, though, has Jackson's 2014-15 campaign been a failure.
It just hasn't been a performance worth buying high on—something he must look to change ahead of his restricted free-agency tour.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played Jan. 12, 2015. Salary information via HoopsHype.
