Which Atlantic Division Rebuild Is in the Best Shape to Sustain NBA Success?
The Atlantic Division is in a state of (self-inflicted) peril.
Outside of the flourishing Toronto Raptors, the NBA's northeastern-most sect of big-market basketball has transformed into an experimental lab where rebuilds of different shapes and sizes are being tested in hopes of churning out eventual title contenders.
As things stand, the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers occupy three of the Eastern Conference's bottom four seeds, with Boston the only member of that trio to accrue double-digit wins so far this season.
So as the Raptors set their sights on a Larry O'Brien trophy and the Brooklyn Nets try and dig themselves out of a massive financial crater, Danny Ainge, Phil Jackson and Sam Hinkie will position their respective franchises as best they can to prosper throughout the remainder of the decade.
But which club has best positioned itself to make the leap back into contention? Well, that's where things get interesting.
Philadelphia 76ers
Among the three competing rebuilds, the 76ers are stocked with the most complete set of assets. That, of course, is because they've been committed to the teardown longer than the Celtics or Knicks.
Let's start with the basics.
At the very least, Philadelphia has accumulated solid young prospects in the form of Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel, K.J. McDaniels, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. While Embiid is presumed to be the cream of that crop, it remains to be seen just how impactful he will be upon taking the floor next season.
Saric—who's under contract in Europe for this season and next—is unlikely to join the team until 2016 since he doesn't own an opt-out clause in his overseas deal, according to NJ.com's Eliot Shorr-Parks.
That frustrating waiting game aside, the Sixers are primed to stack the deck with two more first-round picks this summer—including one that's destined to be a top-five selection.
Although the Sixers' 2015 first-round pick is owed to Boston, it's a selection that's lottery-protected this season, according to RealGM.com. When the Sixers finish among the league's 14 worst teams this season, the lottery-protected selection will convert to second-round picks owed to the Celtics in 2015 and 2016.
Despite that minor inconvenience, Philadelphia is positively loaded with picks. Not only do the Sixers own the Miami Heat's top-10-protected 2015 first-round selection, but they're purveyors of 15—yes, 15—second-round picks through 2020, according to Liberty Ballers' Derek Bodner (via CSN Philly's John Gonzalez).
Now, there's no possible way the Sixers can use all of those second-round picks. Instead, general manager Sam Hinkie can put his asset-management skills to good use and poke, prod and eventually package them in order to help acquire sorely needed veteran help or move up to acquire more first-round selections.
But where things get really fascinating with the Sixers is their status as potential players in free agency.
Loading the roster with rookie-scale deals and non-guaranteed D-League contracts, Hinkie has left the Sixers tremendously flexible moving forward. In fact, the only players Philadelphia has firmly committed to beyond this season are Embiid, Noel, Carter-Williams, Tony Wroten, Robert Covington and Jerami Grant, according to HoopsHype.com.
What that means is the Sixers are staring at a minimum of $14.5 million on the books for 2015-16, which would allow them to entice free agents with max-contract money like few other franchises can.
That said, a max-caliber player signing with Philadelphia isn't exactly practical at this stage in the game.
Financial considerations aside, the Sixers' ambitious mode of operation under Hinkie has saddled the franchise with an unfortunate stigma—one that revolves around a commitment to some futuristic ideal.
Consequently, players across the Association have soured on the prospect of signing with the Sixers.
"No one wants to go there," an anonymous Eastern Conference player said, according to Philly.com's Keith Pompey. "Not right now."
In order to lure title puzzle pieces to South Philadelphia, the Sixers will need to show tangible progress in the win column with their jumbled cast of youngsters.
Philadelphia has assembled the outline necessary to produce a successful rebuild. However, a slew of incalculable variables have rightly shrouded the Sixers' desired endgame in question marks.
New York Knicks
Phil Jackson has done a commendable job shedding salary in the name of rebuilding, most notably shipping Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith to the Cleveland Cavaliers to open up more cap space in preparation for a summer filled with intense negotiations.
Nevertheless, the horrific strife New York has encountered throughout a tumultuous 2014-15 campaign has led to justified inquiries regarding the team's ability to lure big names willing to team up with Carmelo Anthony.
Jackson touched on those concerns when he met with the media late last week, according to ESPNNew York.com's Ian Begley:
"We're all worried about the fact that money is not going to just be able to buy you necessary talent. You're going to have to have places where people want to come and play. But I do think that New York situation holds a high regard in players and agents that have contacted us. We have no lack of agents that have contacted us for their players. We still think that we have a really good chance to develop a team.
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With $34.1 million in guaranteed salary penciled in for next season, Jackson is looking to expedite the rebuild even quicker by dangling Jose Calderon (two years, $15 million beyond this season) and Andrea Bargnani (expiring) in trade negotiations, per Begley and ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
And while the Knicks have sold off future assets in an attempt to make short-term improvements in the past, New York can take solace in the fact that it does own its first-round pick this year.
Right now the Knicks are flirting aggressively with a top-five pick and are primed to make their first lottery selection since drafting Jordan Hill (No. 8 overall) in 2009. After not participating in the first round three of the past five seasons, a shot at one of college basketball's prized young talents will be a refreshing change of pace for the Knicks, even if it does come at the expense of horrible embarrassment.
Unfortunately, the Knicks will be without a first-round pick in 2016 due to their lack of proper asset appraisal in the Bargnani deal. Plus, they owe second-round picks to Houston in 2015 and 2016, Utah in 2017 and Philadelphia in 2018 and 2019, per RealGM.
In other words, Jackson has a major mess to tend to, and this is only the beginning of what could be a deliberate cleanup process.
Playing in one of the league's most compelling markets with free-agent pitches rolling off Jackson's tongue will undoubtedly make the Knicks offseason players this summer. But the amount of headway New York ultimately makes in its superstar chase during this trying time will be a telling barometer of the Zen Master's influence.
Boston Celtics
Like the Knicks, the Celtics only recently dove head-first into their rebuild by dealing Rajon Rondo to the Dallas Mavericks, Brandan Wright to the Phoenix Suns and Jeff Green to the Memphis Grizzlies in the span of a month.
However, Danny Ainge has been ready for this moment ever since he dealt Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for three first-round picks (2014, 2016, 2018) and a hodgepodge of veteran contracts.
As MassLive.com's Jay King explained in great detail, the Celtics have done a tremendous job of accruing first-round picks over the past few seasons:
"After the Rondo trade, the Celtics held an information session because they felt the need to explain all of their future draft picks. Now they (probably) have three more, (probably) making the total (by my count) 11 first-round choices over the next five drafts. At some point, Ainge will package picks to either A) move up for an elite talent or B) trade for a star. Maybe both. There’s no way the Celtics will keep all of these picks.
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Compare that to the Sixers' haul, and that's still the most impressive collection of picks any general team has to offer.
And like New York and Philadelphia, Boston will soon be replete with cap space. Per King, the Celtics will have approximately $30 million to play with this summer.
Facing a dilemma Hinkie and Jackson are gaining familiarity with, Ainge must combat a reality that includes potential disinterest from prospective free-agent signees.
That said, Bleacher Report's Brian Robb outlined a scenario in which the Celtics could lure budding talents to Beantown:
"That uncertainty is exactly the reason why Ainge may have no inclination to follow a long rebuilding route in spite of dealing Rondo. Instead, the distinct possibility remains that the Celtics could be aggressive with their accumulated picks and projected salary-cap space as soon as this summer.
It’s unlikely the top names of the 2015 free agency class would opt for Boston if similar money and a better chance to win now is offered elsewhere. However, younger free-agent names looking to earn their first major payday such as Greg Monroe, Paul Millsap, Draymond Green and Reggie Jackson could become realistic targets for Ainge via free agency or trade.
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Although Ainge can play the long game and watch a young core consisting of Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk, James Young, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley and future picks slowly ascend up the standings, he's displayed a proclivity for faster turnarounds.
With an inventory of draft picks that might not fit in an Amazon.com warehouse, Ainge has acquired the arsenal paramount to rapid improvement. And given his track record, it feels like a matter of when—not if—he'll choose to push those chips to the middle of the table.
Conclusion
Each rebuild has a distinct advantage.
The Knicks are in the most glamorous market and already possess a superstar in Anthony, Philadelphia is developing the most intriguing in-house talent and Boston's collection of picks puts it in line to maintain organizational freedom and strike with a game-changing blockbuster at a moment's notice.
But what this ultimately comes down to is flexibility, which is why the Celtics should be thrilled with the triple-threat position they've swiftly assumed.
While the Sixers are restricted to sticking with their rebuild based on the commitment they've made to top-flight prospects, the Celtics can quietly develop the young guns they've drafted, pursue professional-bound studs and pivot at a moment's notice if the mood strikes.
All draft pick protection, credit and debit information courtesy of RealGM.com unless noted otherwise.
