NFL Playoffs 2015: Examining Early Odds and Predictions for Championship Weekend
With the exception of one quarterback with a ridiculous beard, the NFC and AFC Championship Games feature the usual suspects.
Said furry gunslinger is Andrew Luck and his Indianapolis Colts, though, and his taking down Peyton Manning in Denver is as poetic as it sounds.
Joining Luck is Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers and Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks on an epic collision course in the NFC.
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The dash of old and majority of new under center is sure to highlight the chatter surrounding next weekend's games in a big way. While the results of the divisional round have yet to digest, Las Vegas has already decided the early favorites when berths in the Super Bowl go up for grabs.
2015 NFL NFC, AFC Championship Schedule and Odds
| Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks | Sunday, January 18, 3 p.m. | Fox | SEA -7.5 (47) | GB |
| Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots | Sunday, January 18, 6:30 p.m. | CBS | NE -7 (53.5) | NE |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 9 p.m. ET on Jan. 11.
NFC Championship
A trip to Seattle is bad news for any team, and that includes Rodgers and the Packers.
Just ask them, after all. Way back in Week 1, Mike McCarthy's team left a road trip to Seattle with bowed heads after a 36-16 shellacking.
There, Rodgers only threw for 189 yards with a touchdown and interception. Lead back Eddie Lacy ran for 34 yards on 12 carries. The defense not only allowed Wilson to throw a pair of touchdowns, it permitted Marshawn Lynch 110 yards and two scores on just 20 carries.
Just after his team's 26-21 win against the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round, Packers offensive lineman Bryan Bulaga put it best, per Jason Wilde of ESPNWisconsin.com:
Much of the narrative surrounding Sunday's early game will revolve around the health of Rodgers, who is adamant the chatter will prove unnecessary.
"I think I've got 120 minutes left in me," Rodgers said after the home victory, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. "So I'm going to do everything I can to make sure I can play all those minutes."
What more is there to say about Seattle at this point? Rodgers is counting down the minutes to the end of the season, and sarcasm or not, the Seahawks can smell blood in the water.
Seattle ranks first against the pass and third against the rush, and a relentless pass rush has more time to hit home than it should thanks to the efforts of an elite secondary led by Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor.
While Green Bay back Eddie Lacy has a minimum of 97 yards in each of his last four outings, asking the Packers to go on the road and beat Seattle at its own game is foolish. Green Bay's defense showed signs of weakness against Dallas, even at home, so look for Lynch and Wilson to run wild as Rodgers struggles to keep pace.
Prediction: Seahawks 30, Packers 23
AFC Championship
Luck's checklist probably reads something like this:
- Take down Peyton Manning.
- Barber (optional).
- Take down Tom Brady.
The last item on the list is a tall task now that the Colts hit the road to Foxborough. Keep in mind these two danced to a 42-20, Week 11 decision in favor of New England as Jonas Gray of all people ran for 201 yards and four touchdowns.
Gray has received more than 10 carries in a game just one time since, but the Patriots keep chugging along as Bill Belichick brings out an unpredictable attack each week to great effect.
The Colts have reason to hope, though. Luck threw his seemingly usual pair of touchdowns and interceptions in Denver, but he was the recipient of some major help in the form of 23 carries for 63 yards and a score by former Cincinnati castoff Daniel "Boom" Herron.
"I think we're playing good team ball," Luck said, per ESPN.com. "We're feeding off each other. Offensively we're making enough plays to put some points on the board. Great night. So proud to be a part of the Colts in this victory."
Such offensive balance gives the Colts a better fighting chance this time around. No, really, feel free to compare those numbers to Indianapolis' 16 rushes for 19 yards in its first encounter with New England this year.
Even that might not be enough on the road against these Patriots. Even 129 rushing yards from Baltimore's Justin Forsett, four passing touchdowns from Joe Flacco and two 14-point leads were not enough to down Belichick's team this past weekend.
Unlike Denver and a fading Manning, New England can and will capitalize on Luck's mistakes, if not shut down Herron outright. At home, the Patriots will distance themselves early and play keep-away.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Colts 20
Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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