Oregon vs. Ohio State: Preview, Prediction for College Football Championship

It'd be hard for the tales of Marcus Mariota and Cardale Jones to be any more different. On one side is perhaps the greatest quarterback in college football history. On the other, a signal-caller with 71 more career throws than you or I.

As a freshman, Mariota was leading a BCS bowl champion. Jones was openly opining the pointlessness of classes. That the pair are lining up on opposite sidelines in Monday's College Football Championship would frankly be baffling if we hadn't seen it all play out.

Their stories at this point are well-worn. Mariota is looking to cap off one of the greatest full seasons for a quarterback in the history of the sport. The likely No. 1 overall pick has accounted for 55 total touchdowns and only six turnovers, winning the Heisman, Maxwell, Davey O'Brien, Walter Camp and Nobel Peace prize on the way.

On the surface he looks like everything a modern quarterback should be. He's tall, quick, intuitive in the pocket and plays with an admirable headiness. Over the course of his career he's thrown 13 interceptions over 1,130 pass attempts. That's barely a pick once every 100 passes, a rate so low it's a legitimate shock any time he turns the ball over.

"Our biggest concern is the guy receiving the snap every play," Urban Meyer told reporters Sunday. "I think he's one of the finest that's ever played the game, and that's our biggest issue."

Containing Mariota might be a little bit easier with one of his favorite targets still hanging out in Eugene. Oregon coach Mark Helfrich confirmed to reporters second leading receiver Darren Carrington will miss Monday's game due to an eligibility issue. The freshman made 37 receptions for 704 yards, the latter second behind Byron Marshall, and was coming into his own of late. Mariota and Carrington connected:

"It's tough," Mariota told reporters. "[Carrington] is a big playmaker for us. Next guy up."

If anyone knows something about the phrase "next man up," it's Jones. Because he was one. Or, rather, he was the third man up. The sophomore quarterback will be making his third career start Monday, having taken over for J.T. Barrett, himself a replacement for preseason Heisman hopeful Braxton Miller.

So far, Jones hasn't made anyone in Columbus miss Miller or Barrett for a second. He's thrown for 500 yards and four touchdowns against a single interception, helping the Buckeyes pulverize Wisconsin and barely squeak by Alabama. While he doesn't possess the speed on the edge of Miller or Barrett, he's a tough, grind-it-out runner in short yardage and brings a prototypical skill set from a passing perspective.

“The one thing that the new quarterback does is he has a tremendous arm,” Alabama coach Nick Saban told reporters. “And they have some very talented receivers. And the two things that were very apparent is those things became very apparent in the last two games because of the quarterback."

Jones' arrival has allowed Devin Smith, the long-dormant deep playmaker in Ohio State's passing game, to shine. Smith has been at the receiving end of all four Jones touchdowns, torturing the Badger and Tides secondaries over the top. His six receptions have gone for an average of 37.3 yards; for the season that number is a ridiculous 27.7 yard per pop.

"They have a quarterback that can throw the ball. He'll hang in there and throw the ball 50, 60 yards to a spot," Oregon defensive coordinator Don Pellum said, per Tyson Alger of The Oregonian. "But what makes the deep ball game go is their receivers. Those guys will go up and get the ball. They're covered, they're fighting and out-fight (the defensive backs) more often than not." 

Also making Jones' job easier is running back Ezekiel Elliott, who picked an awfully good time to have the two best games of his life. Elliott rushed for 450 yards and four touchdowns in Ohio State's two biggest contests, affirming his status as one of the nation's most dynamic playmakers in the process. The sophomore reeled off two touchdown runs of 80 yards or longer, picked up yards at more than 11 a clip and has been a safety valve for times when the moment seemed too big for Jones.

Oregon's Royce Freeman hasn't been nearly as dynamic, but he makes up for it with consistency. Freeman has rushed for at least 98 yards in eight of his last nine contests, the lone exception being a forgettable 44-yard outing against Florida State. The Ducks will need Freeman to step up against an Ohio State run defense that ranks a shaky 52nd in Football Outsiders' S&P run defense rankings.

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

In fact, both running backs should have an opportunity for success. Oregon has allowed more than 2,000 rushing yards this season and struggled mightily against a spread-style offense in its loss to Arizona. The Ducks rectified that loss in the Pac-12 Championship Game and are better balanced than they've been in any recent season, but it'd be a mild shock if this weren't a high-scoring contest.

Selecting a winner is entirely a trust exercise. On one side Meyer has a far superior resume to Helfrich, who to some is a mere holdover from the Chip Kelly era. On the other Mariota is one the shortlist of the greatest players in the sport's long history, while Jones' resume is almost entirely blank.

The saying goes when in doubt, trust the talent. I'll do just that. But Monday night should be a spectacle worthy of the inaugural college football playoff.

Pick: Oregon 42, Ohio State 31

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