NFL Free Agency 100: Top 12 Wide Receivers

We love to rank things in the NFL world, and ranking free agents is no different. But this time they’re being ranked with a scouting emphasis to give a full picture of what type of player each team is getting with a free agent contract.

The goal of the NFL Free Agency 100 is to look at each player the way an NFL front office will look at him. By evaluating on-field play (production), past injuries (durability), off-field and locker room (intangibles), their potential as a player (upside) and then the type of contract expected (value), we’re able to get a complete image of the player.

In the case of ties, I have asked myself, "Which player would I rather have on my team?" and set the rankings accordingly.

Subjective? Yes. But ties are no fun. 

Each player was scouted by myself and a team of experienced evaluators, with these key criteria in mind. The following scouting reports and grades are the work of months of film study from our team.

All statistics from Pro Football Focus. Players' heights, weights and seasons from NFL.com.

12. Wes Welker, Denver Broncos

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Production

22/30

Wes Welker is one of the most productive wide receivers of our generation, but as he nears the end of his career and his injuries pile up, he’s become more of a third or fourth option in the Denver passing attack. Welker’s 49 catches in 2014 were his lowest since 2005—his second year in the NFL. He’s clearly regressing at this point and could consider retirement.

Durability

5/10

Concussion issues are a legitimate concern for Welker, putting his future in question as a pro player. His three concussions in the last year are definite red flags.

Intangibles

15/15

Welker is a clean on- and off-field player with no issues. There should be no hesitation in bringing him into a team environment.

Upside

10/20

Given his injuries, declining production and age (34 next season), Welker has very little upside. The only moves that make sense for Welker are staying in Denver or signing with a team like the Seattle Seahawks that would offer him another shot at a ring.

Value

20/25

If Welker does hit the market, expect him to be a very low-value signing boosted up by incentives. Giving him much guaranteed money wouldn’t be ideal.

Overall

72/100

11. Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Production

20/30

In the lone season in which he played in every game, Hakeem Nicks posted his lowest career totals in catches and yards (38 for 405 yards) despite playing with a premier quarterback (Andrew Luck). That’s a concern. Nicks’ production hasn’t matched his hype since back-to-back 70-plus-catch seasons in 2010 and 2011 in which he eclipsed 1,000 yards in both years. He has just seven touchdowns in the past three seasons on teams with Luck and Eli Manning at quarterback.

Durability

8/10

Nicks has played a full season in his six-year career just once—in 2014—when he started only six games. Injuries to ankles, a fractured foot, a groin strain and leg swelling have all kept him out of games over the years.

Intangibles

15/15

Nicks comes from a rough upbringing but has been a model citizen on and off the field in the NFL. There are no concerns here.

Upside

15/20

Nicks’ injury history and regression over the past several seasons would indicate that his upside is limited. If you can’t get it done with Andrew Luck and Eli Manning, who can you produce with?

Value

15/25

As a mid-level signing, Nicks could be a good value pickup as a depth wide receiver. He shouldn’t be considered a top-tier target.

Overall

73/100

10. Eddie Royal, San Diego Chargers

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Production

20/30

Teams looking for a good No. 3 receiver with return experience will dig deep on Eddie Royal. In 2014 he posted 62 catches—the most since his rookie season (91)—and 778 yards with seven touchdowns. Over the last two seasons he’s accumulated 15 touchdowns and has shown a knack for making plays in the red zone. When healthy, Royal can have a surprising impact.

Durability

8/10

Royal played in all 16 games of the season for just the second time in his career in 2014. Nagging injuries have long been part of his downside.

Intangibles

15/15

There are no off-field or on-field issues to worry about with Royal. He has good football and personal character.

Upside

15/20

As a third option and occasional return man, Royal has good upside. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a 1,000-yard receiving season from him if healthy for 16 games. He’s a rhythm receiver, though, who will get hot and then go through cold stretches.

Value

18/25

Royal shouldn't command a very expensive deal, but he could be a nice complementary piece for a team with a strong starting receiver presence or looking to round out a younger roster with a productive veteran.

Overall

76/100

9. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Production

22/30

Reggie Wayne has made a strong case for the Hall of Fame during his career, but looking at his current seasons and projecting forward, he shouldn’t be asked to carry a big load in an offense. Combine his 2013 and 2014 seasons, and you get what used to be a normal year for him. Injuries factor in there, but Wayne is also aging and seeing the effects of a long, brilliant career.

Durability

8/10

Until the 2013 season, Wayne had remained very healthy, but a torn ACL in his right knee cut his season down, and we saw him feeling the effects of that even this year. At 36 years old, expecting the normal year two bounce back from an ACL tear isn’t realistic.

Intangibles

15/15

Wayne is a great locker room player and leader. He's the type of elder statesman who could be a great mentor to a young locker room or wide receiver corps.

Upside

10/20

Wayne doesn’t project much upside for the next years of his career. There’s also the outside shot that he retires if the Colts don’t bring him back.

Value

22/25

If he does hit the market and does not retire, Wayne should be viewed as a one-year option. That might mean a two-year deal with a one-year guarantee, but he would be a signing for a team very close to a Super Bowl that needs a veteran wide receiver.

Overall

77/100

8. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Production

23/30

As the San Francisco 49ers offense struggled in 2014, Michael Crabtree's production and impact suffered. On 108 targets, Crabtree hauled in 68 catches but for only 698 yards and four touchdowns. More concerning is that Crabtree lacked the burst and toughness that made him a go-to target in previous seasons.

Durability

5/10

Crabtree has been injured often, including an Achilles tear in 2013 that limited him to five games. In 2012 he nursed a calf injury; in 2011 he had surgery on his left foot; in 2010 he strained his neck; in 2009 he had left-foot surgery for the first time; and in college he sprained both feet and an ankle. Needless to say, his durability is a concern.

Intangibles

13/15

Crabtree isn’t afraid to talk to the media when he’s upset with his touches, but he’s known for his work ethic and is dedicated to winning.

Upside

16/20

Crabtree’s injury history and age (27 years old) does make it seem like his upside will be limited. The best scenario for him would be a system that allows him to be a No. 1B or No. 2 receiver and not the focal point of the defensive game plan.

Value

20/25

Crabtree isn’t likely to get a bank-breaking deal after injuries and a disappointing season, which could play into the team’s favor if he produces like he did with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in 2012. That year he went off for 85 catches, 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns, so you get an idea of where his ceiling is as a player.

Overall

77/100

7. Kenny Britt, St. Louis Rams

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Production

23/30

Kenny Britt followed Jeff Fisher to St. Louis from Tennessee and immediately produced his best pro season with Austin Davis and Shaun Hill playing quarterback. Britt is a freak athlete with explosive traits on the field, but his production throughout his career has been limited by injuries, suspensions and bad quarterback play.

Durability

10/10

Britt has been banged up in his NFL career, but the only severe injury came in 2011 (right ACL/MCL tear). Otherwise, it's been mostly bumps and bruises with no injuries reported since 2012.

Intangibles

9/15

Britt’s off-field history is a long and complicated one. He’s been arrested nine times since 2009, per Doug Kyed of NESN.com, and has bounced around the league due to his issues. Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams took him in this year as a reclamation project, and he had his best season as a pro.

Upside

18/20

At just 26 years old and with limited reps over the years, Britt’s best football could still be in front of him. The risk is offering him guaranteed money, because he has repeat-offender status with the NFL personal conduct policy.

Value

20/25

Given his off-field issues, Britt will come at a very low cost if he leaves St. Louis. Weighing the risk versus the reward is a must, but he could easily outproduce his contract.

Overall

80/100

6. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Production

24/30

When scouting Cecil Shorts, you have to look at production versus time on the field. Take his numbers in a vacuum, and they aren’t impressive, but divide them by the number of games played, and he stands out as a good producer. The biggest on-field issue will be drops, as Shorts struggles to bring in passes away from his frame at times. In 13 games this season he notched 53 catches, 557 yards and one touchdown while playing on a very young offense with developing quarterback Blake Bortles.

Durability

7/10

Shorts is no doubt talented, but injuries have been a constant issue for him. Soft tissue injuries, like hamstrings, are always a concern due to their repeat nature, and Shorts has to prove he can stay on the field before a big payday is coming. In four seasons he’s never played more than 13 games.

Intangibles

15/15

Dating back to college, Shorts has had no issues off the field and isn’t a threat to break up a locker room or disrupt team chemistry.

Upside

18/20

If healthy, it’s reasonable to expect better numbers from Shorts due to the talent he’s worked with at quarterback. If placed in a system with a proven quarterback, he could top 1,000 yards.

Value

23/25

If Shorts leaves Jacksonville he’ll do so on a contract that’s likely to be incentive-heavy given his history of injuries. His value all hinges on availability, but he could be a cheap pickup who produces big if he plays 16 games.

Overall

87/100

5. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Production

25/30

One of the best deep threats in the NFL, Torrey Smith has a knack for beating defenders down the sideline. Paired with Joe Flacco’s arm, it’s a deadly combination. The downside to Smith is that his production has been limited and inconsistent. In 2014 he notched just 49 catches on 92 targets and racked up only 767 yards, but he added 11 touchdowns, so you can see his red-zone ability. Any team signing Smith will bank on improving his catches-per-target ratio.

Durability

10/10

Smith has started every game for three straight seasons, and in his four years he’s never missed a game. Durability isn’t an issue.

Intangibles

15/15

Compared to his very vocal teammate, Steve Smith, it might seem like you never hear from Torrey Smith, and that’s probably true. He’s had no run-ins off the field and is a quiet, humble man on it.

Upside

18/20

Smith has considerable upside given that he hasn't always been the primary target in Baltimore, so his numbers could improve even if he’s well-developed as a receiver.

Value

20/25

Smith has very good value if you realize what he is and what you’re paying for. He’s best suited to a No. 2 wide receiver role but could be a mid-level No. 1 in the mold of a Dwayne Bowe.

Overall

88/100

4. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Production

27/30

In 2014, Maclin set career highs for catches and yards and tied his best touchdown mark. With 85 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns, he was among the NFL’s most productive players. Doing so with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez at quarterback is impressive, too. Maclin is a versatile threat with yards-after-catch skills and a knack for getting open underneath or down the field. He’s a legitimate No. 1 receiver option.

Durability

8/10

Maclin played his first full season since 2010 this past year, and did so coming off a 2013 season in which injuries kept him out for the entire year. He’s been banged up often in his career—playing all 16 games just twice—and must be evaluated for injuries before being signed.

Intangibles

15/15

Maclin is a quiet, calm player with no outbursts or “me first” actions. He’s a great teammate and comes to the open market with no issues in his past.

Upside

18/20

We haven’t seen all that Maclin can do in the NFL, mostly due to injuries, so there’s still room for him to really develop and emerge. As long as he can stay healthy—which hasn’t been the case yet—he can be a team’s No. 1 receiver.

Value

25/25

Maclin’s new contract will come in lower than Dez Bryant's or Demaryius Thomas', but he could still be a big earner on the market if he makes it out of Philadelphia without a franchise tag.

Overall

93/100

3. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers

Jim Slosiarek/Associated Press

Production

28/30

Randall Cobb is the No. 2 option in Green Bay but has posted numbers when on the field that are very impressive. In 2014, he logged 91 catches for almost 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns as a receiver and is also a threat running the ball or returning punts. Cobb doesn’t compare with Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas as pure receivers, but he’s a jack-of-all-trades weapon with burst, instincts, toughness and sure hands.

Durability

9/10

Injury has been an issue in the past, but Cobb played all 16 games in 2014. There may be lasting concerns due to his size and playing style, but he’s proved he can be a healthy contributor.

Intangibles

15/15

Don’t worry about bringing Cobb into the locker room. He’s a high-character, high-energy player with leadership and work ethic.

Upside

19/20

Can Cobb produce outside an offense that’s dominated by Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson? Other receivers have failed once leaving Green Bay, but Cobb is young (24 years old), explosive and such a utility knife as an offensive piece that it’s very tough to see him not being a huge threat wherever he’s playing in 2015.

Value

25/25

Bryant and Thomas will dominate the market and could set the asking price high for receivers. Cobb, on the other hand, will come in below asking price and put up comparable numbers in 2015. Even as a higher-cost option compared to other free agents, he could be a steal compared to the top earners.

Overall

96/100

2. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Production

30/30

Coming out of Georgia Tech, Demaryius Thomas took a few seasons to acclimate to the NFL, but once he found a partner in Peyton Manning his career took off. Thomas has produced three straight 1,400-yard receiving seasons and has at least 10 touchdowns in those years, too. He does benefit from Manning, but Manning’s declining arm strength and velocity also benefits from having a huge target like Thomas to pull down errant passes.

Durability

10/10

Thomas enters free agency with a clean bill of health and three years injury-free. There are no concerns here.

Intangibles

15/15

Thomas is an exception at wide receiver in that he’s quiet on the field and doesn’t have the cocky or prima donna attitude that’s become very common among the game’s best receivers.

Upside

20/20

There will no doubt be those who believe Thomas is only benefiting from Manning at quarterback, but let’s remember that he helped make Tim Tebow a playoff winner before Manning arrived on the scene. Thomas has worked hard to develop into a top-tier receiver and still has room to improve.

Value

25/25

Thomas is fighting with Dez Bryant, Justin Houston and Ndamukong Suh for the title of best free agent available. It’ll be expensive to sign him away from the Broncos if they don’t use the franchise tag, but he’s worth it.

Overall

100/100

1. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Production

30/30

Dez Bryant was a dominant figure at wide receiver during the 2014 season and has been since entering the NFL in 2010. He’s emerged to be not only one of the game’s most physical wide receivers but now one of the most productive. He brings the size, speed, strength and hands needed to remain in the top wide receiver conversation.

Durability

10/10

Bryant hasn’t missed a game since 2012, and he only missed two games then. He’s durable and getting better every season.

Intangibles

15/15

Too many will focus on the sideline arguments from Bryant and point to poor intangibles, but he’s a tireless worker and simply wants to win games. That may rub some people wrong, but his fire fuels the offense.

Upside

20/20

Bryant is the type of wide receiver who can produce in any scheme and will make his quarterback better. You could be concerned that he would see a drop in production without Tony Romo, but that’s very unlikely given his tools and work ethic.

Value

25/25

If Bryant actually hits the open market, it will be a surprise. He’s a prime candidate for the franchise tag. If he is available, you could argue he’s the most valuable player on the market.

Overall

100/100