Fantasy Football: Daily League Guide to Divisional Sunday

There is no such thing as a bad quarterback this time of the year in the NFL postseason. You don't get to the final eight without a top-notch signal-caller. What should really excite daily fantasy players is when two pretty good quarterbacks are facing each other and suspect opposing defenses.

Sunday's matchups have some big-time quarterback duels, which project some big fantasy points for us. Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck is going to grab the headlines, but the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys' Tony Romo and the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers should have daily fantasy players' attention because of the defenses they are facing.

Bleacher Report breaks down Sunday's games for daily fantasy players, looking into Las Vegas' numbers, injury-report status, statistically significant fantasy matchups and our rankings by position respective to price.

We have already published the thorough review of Saturday's action here, but those games project to be defensive-sided ones. Sunday's games should be a whole lot looser and fantasy friendly.

Note: Practice participation information comes from the official NFL injury report (credentials required), all dollar values are from the games at DraftKings.com and all references to fantasy points against specific positions are derived from FFToday.com.

What Las Vegas Points Us To...

Sunday's matchups are far more exciting offensively, which should mean bigger fantasy production. Las Vegas totals for the two Sunday games are decidedly higher than Saturday's, so expect more points, especially in the Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers game.

It should be noted Tony Romo ($7,600) is just the sixth quarterback on the board. He is facing Aaron Rodgers ($8,900), the No. 1 quarterback on the board, and the betting trends outlined below suggest that game will bust its over of 52. The quarterbacks are going to be involved in doing that in some way, so consider this the game to stack, if any. 

All betting information, lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Favorite: Green Bay -5.5

Total: 52

• Cowboys are 2-11 straight up in playoff road games since 1981 (last win Jan. 17, 1993 at San Francisco)
• Packers are 2-4 in divisional round since 2000 and just 2-4 straight up in home playoff games since 2005
• Cowboys 9-0 straight up the past nine road games (7-2 against the spread)
• Cowboys 0-3 straight up and against the spread the past three meetings with Packers
• Cowboys 1-6 straight up past seven road games vs. NFC North (2-5 against the spread)
• Cowboys 2-7 straight up and against the spread the past nine playoff games
• Cowboys 5-0 straight up the past five games (4-1 against the spread)
• Packers 8-0 straight up the past eight home games (6-1-1 against the spread)
• Packers 5-2 straight up and against the spread the past seven home games vs. NFC East
• Packers 2-5-1 against the spread the past eight home playoff games (3-5 straight up)
• Over 13-3 in past 16 meetings
• Over 7-0 in Dallas' past seven road games
• Over 5-0 in Dallas' past five road games vs. NFC North
• Under 6-2 in Dallas' past eight playoff games
• Over 7-1 in Green Bay's past eight home games

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Favorite: Denver -7

Total: 53.5

• Colts covered seven straight vs. Broncos, 6-1 straight up (loss was this season)
• Eight of past nine meetings played over the total
• Denver failed to cover past three games in divisional round since 2000
• Colts 5-1 against the spread the past six road games vs. AFC West (4-2 straight up)
• Colts 2-8 straight up and against the spread the past 10 road playoff games
• Broncos 17-1 straight up the past 18 home games (10-8 ATS)
• Broncos 6-3 against the spread the past nine home playoff games (7-2 straight up)
• Broncos 3-7 against the spread the past 10 home games vs. AFC South (5-5 straight up)
• Over 8-1 in past nine meetings
• Under 8-2 in Indy's past 10 road games vs. AFC West
• Under 9-3 in Indy's past nine road playoff games (5-1 last six)
• Over 4-0 in Denver's past four home games vs. AFC South
• Over 5-1 in Denver's past six home games

Dallas Cowboys Injury Report

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

RT Doug Free (ankle)

Free was facing "an uphill battle" to play this week, Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones said on KRLD-FM radio Monday, according to Brandon George of The Dallas Morning News. Free has all but lost that battle.

Jermey Parnell is going to replace him, but DeMarco Murray ($8,400) has run behind him for six starts already this season, George reported. Free's absence hurts Murray but not enough to avoid the No. 1 back on the DraftKings.com board.

Questionable: LB Anthony Hitchens (ankle), LB Rolando McClain (knee, concussion), DT Terrell McClain (ankle), DE Jeremy Mincey (concussion)

The important news is Rolando McClain and Mincey have cleared the NFL's concussion protocol, according to ESPN.com's Todd Archer. They are going to play, but Eddie Lacy ($7,200) was going to be a solid buy regardless of their health.

Probable: LB Bruce Carter (knee), TE James Hanna (knee), DT Nick Hayden (shoulder), S Jeff Heath (thumb), G Zack Martin (ankle), RB DeMarco Murray (hand), QB Tony Romo (back)

The most significant injury here is not Murray's hand or Romo's back. They have played through those issues without much trouble. Instead, it is Martin's ankle. The road-grading lineman is an important piece for Murray and the running game. He is going to play without much issue, though.

Green Bay Packers Injury Report

QB Aaron Rodgers (Calf)

The is easily the most significant injury concern of the entire NFL postseason. Rodgers has been playing through the left calf issue for weeks. The good news is it is not the right calf, which would be used to plant and drive the ball when he throws, Packers quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt told ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky.

"It's better than a right calf [injury]," Van Pelt said. "As your plant foot, your right foot, it takes a lot of the pressure ... anytime you have an injury to your plant leg, it's difficult to drop."

Expect Rodgers ($8,900) to work out of the gun and pistol for most of the game. There is risk to him in Draft Kings games, especially since he is not 100 percent mobile and is drawing the No. 1 price among quarterbacks.

S Sean Richardson (knee), DE Josh Boyd (knee), CB Davon House (shoulder), G Josh Sitton (toe)

None of these injuries will significantly impact the result of the game.

Indianapolis Colts Injury Report

Probable: LB Jerrell Freeman (abdomen), C Jonotthan Harrison (concussion), LB Andrew Jackson (hamstring), LB Henoc Muamba (back), C A.Q. Shipley (ankle), CB Gregory Toler (knee), LB Erik Walden (knee)

Veteran WR Reggie Wayne did not practice Friday, but it was not injury related and he will be fine to face his former quarterback, Peyton Manning, who he is motivated to beat, as ESPN.com's Mike Wells reported. None of these injuries above will significantly impact the game or daily fantasy numbers.

Denver Broncos Injury Report

TE Julius Thomas (Ankle)

Thomas was active for the Broncos down the stretch of the regular season, but he hasn't been his productive self since Week 10 (Nov. 9). Thomas told The Denver Post's Nicki Jhabvala he is sick of answering questions about his toughness or his health.

Indianapolis Colts coach Chuck Pagano does not want to hear it either. He expects Thomas to be a full go for this one, he said in his conference call Wednesday, Jhabvala reported:

"

Probably a monster. It's the playoffs, divisional game. It's win or go home. Everybody is going to play lights out. They know the ramifications, just like our guys know the ramifications of this game. He's one heck of a talent, one heck of a player.

It's a long season. Guys go through things. It's hard. You get banged up. It's a marathon. (The Broncos have) had a week off and two weeks to get ready for this one. I know they've got a bunch of guys back that were banged up like everybody else. It's the nature of the NFL. It's a long, long season. We expect to see Julius at his best.

"

The silver lining here is Thomas' ($5,300) price has declined with his injury and his production. He is a solid second choice if you don't want to pay the premium for the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski ($7,100).

The Rest

The following injuries are not expected to significantly impact daily fantasy results.

Out: DE Quanterus Smith (knee)

Questionable: LB Brandon Marshall (foot), DT Mitch Unrein (knee)

Probable: S David Bruton (concussion, neck), T Paul Cornick (toe), G Orlando Franklin (concussion), QB Peyton Manning (thigh), C Will Montgomery (knee), CB Aqib Talib (achilles), WR Demaryius Thomas (ankle, finger), RB Juwan Thompson (hip, knee), S T.J. Ward (neck), CB Kayvon Webster (shoulder)

4 Sunday Fantasy Matchup Breakdowns

Uncredited/Associated Press

Here are Sunday's four-most statistically significant matchups to consider when mapping out your daily fantasy lineups.

Daniel Herron vs. Denver Broncos Run Defense

The Broncos have the best run defense remaining in the tournament after the Detroit Lions were eliminated last week. The Broncos were No. 2 to the Lions against the run, which should make things difficult on last week's star, Herron, who is also fumble prone.

Herron ($5,300) will impact the game more as a short pass receiver than a runner. It should be noted the Broncos gave up the most receptions to fantasy running backs this season (99) and the third-most yards (794) and touchdowns (six). Herron might be good for double-digit fantasy points in the passing game alone, especially if the Broncos blow the game out offensively against the Colts defense.

Andrew Luck vs. Broncos Pass Defense

The Broncos were third in total defense this season, but it doesn't mean they limited opposing fantasy quarterbacks that well. The Broncos were in the bottom quarter of the league, eighth worst, against fantasy quarterbacks. Luck ($8,700) is not a bad buy—again, especially if you are expecting this game to be a shootout between rival future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

DeMarco Murray vs. Green Bay Packers Run Defense

The Packers have been a bottom-10 run defense for most of the season, finishing just 23rd against the run. That is the best news for the Cowboys' No. 2-ranked rushing offense. Murray ($8,400) is as close to a must-have daily fantasy pick as there is on the board this week, perhaps second to only the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski ($7,100) at tight end.

The difference with Murray, though, is there are more good options at running back, with Marshawn Lynch ($8,00), Eddie Lacy ($7,200) and C.J. Anderson ($7,600).

Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers vs. Quarterbacks

As we wrote in the Las Vegas number slide, the Dallas-Green Bay game has the highest total. It is for good reason. Both teams are in the bottom half against fantasy quarterbacks. Dallas is 11th worst, while Green Bay is 13th worst. These might be the two most suspect defenses playing each other. It gives you good reason to consider this the stacking game of the week.

Ranking Sunday's Plays by Position

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Taking the analysis from this slideshow, here is how we rank the plays at each position relative to their DraftKings.com prices in Saturday's matchups.

Quarterbacks

1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts ($8,700)
2. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys ($7,600)
3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($8,900)
4. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos ($8,400)

Running Backs

1. DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys ($8,400)
2. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers ($7,200)
3. C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos ($7,600)
4. Daniel Herron, Indianapolis Colts ($5,300)
5. James Starks, Green Bay Packers ($3,000)
6. Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos ($4,700)

Wide Receivers

1. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys ($8,400)
2. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers ($8,300)
3. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($7,600)
4. Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos ($7,100)
5. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos ($8,500)
6. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($7,300)
7. Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys ($3,900)
8. Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys ($4,100)
9. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($3,100)
10. Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts ($3,100)
11. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts ($3,500)
12. Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts ($3,600)
13. Wes Welker, Denver Broncos ($3,600)

Tight Ends

1. Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos ($5,300)
2. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts ($3,500)
3. Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts ($4,600)
4. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys ($4,800)
5. Andrew Quarless, Green Bay Packers ($3,000)

Defense/Special Teams

1. Denver Broncos ($2,900)
2. Green Bay Packers ($3,000)
3. Dallas Cowboys ($2,500)
4. Indianapolis Colts ($2,200)

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Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.