How Many NBA Playoff Spots Are Still Up for Grabs?
The cream of the crop has begun rising to the top of both conferences, but a lot can change between now and April.
The lower seeds aren't sleeping easily at times like these, and two of those seeds were in last season's NBA Finals. That's the kind of difference a summer can make.
Here's a look at the five teams currently most vulnerable to slipping out of the playoff conversation, as well as a look at four others that might take their place. Barring any major injuries that alter the league landscape, these should be the clubs that are in for a photo finish on the brink of the postseason.
Miami Heat
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One has to imagine that the Miami Heat will figure things out during the second half of the season. Even without LeBron James in the picture, this remains a talented team capable of hanging with the East's very best on paper.
Unfortunately, there's still no guarantee that this team remains glued to the No. 8 seed it currently owns with an uninspiring 15-21 record. Though there's not a whole lot of competition trailing Miami in the standings, it wouldn't be unthinkable for the Charlotte Hornets or Detroit Pistons to make a late-season run and catch the Heat from behind.
Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have looked fairly rejuvenated this season, given their returns to more prominent roles in the post-LeBron era, but there are still some serious questions about whether this team has enough depth to get the job done. Its bench ranks 28th in scoring with just 25.3 points per contest, per HoopsStats.com.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra will need more production than that before he can earnestly plan a deep postseason run.
The other question is whether this team can play with enough tempo to do some of the things that made it so special when James and Wade were running the open court. At the moment, Miami ranks dead-last with 92.5 possessions per game, according to TeamRankings.com. That has to do, in part, with a rebounding rate (47.5 percent) that also ranks last league-wide.
Spoelstra's roster isn't especially big, quick or athletic. Its winning pedigree might make up the difference, but it may have to make up a pretty significant difference in order for the team to secure its seventh consecutive postseason appearance since 2009.
Phoenix Suns
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The Phoenix Suns' experiment with acquiring all of the point guards has thus far earned them the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, a spot head coach Jeff Hornacek's club came within one game of snagging a season ago.
Though certainly cause for temporary excitement, the New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder aren't far behind. And given that Oklahoma City's November was decimated by injuries to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Phoenix's current position is anything but guaranteed.
The Suns remain something of a feel-good story, to be sure, but they once again look primed to become a ninth-seeded victim of an obscenely competitive conference. It really isn't about how good they are. It's about everyone else.
Oklahoma City is an absolute beast when healthy, and it's awfully hard to imagine it coming up short as long as the stars stay healthy. The Pelicans' ceiling has risen considerably with Anthony Davis playing MVP-caliber basketball.
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether the Suns' defense can consistently keep up with the rest of the West's high-power scoring machines. Despite its potent offense, Phoenix allows opponents to score 104.1 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Team Stats, the 19th-best mark league-wide. Though that doesn't officially disqualify Hornacek and Co. from playoff contention, it does narrow its margin for error.
For the record, Phoenix has made significant progress since Steve Nash's 2012 departure threatened to plunge the organization into a protracted rebuild.
"That first season here was tough," Goran Dragic told NBA.com's Kyle Ratke earlier this month. "I think we had only 16 or 17 wins and I knew it was going to be a work in progress and we needed to change a lot of things to try to get better," Dragic explained.
"It's never 100 percent, and I'm just really happy that things turned around and we're a good team in this league. We still need to go through that last hump and try to make the playoffs. Unfortunately the West is so tough that you need to win every game possible."
And even then, it might not be good enough.
Brooklyn Nets
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How times have changed. The Brooklyn Nets' remarkably brief championship window—such as it was—is ancient history by now, and the future is anything but certain amid rumors that the organization's veteran core could be sold off in exchange for younger pieces.
Still, new head coach Lionel Hollins' club currently holds the No. 7 seed with a 16-20 record and little hope of surpassing more elite rivals like the Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls. And with the Heat just one game back, the Nets could soon find themselves desperately clinging to a spot in the playoff bracket.
Deron Williams' 13.9 points per contest are his lowest output since his rookie season in 2005-06, a dire sign for a team in desperate need of star power and leadership. Paul Pierce is gone, and Kevin Garnett is in steep decline.
It's hard to imagine Brooklyn rising any higher than the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, but anything can happen in the opening round of the playoffs. On paper, there's still enough talent (and experience) to outlast a superior opponent. Joe Johnson is still a fourth-quarter clutch artist, and Jarrett Jack has predictably made for a brilliant sixth man.
But the Nets only score 99.9 points per 100 possessions, the 24th-best mark in the league, according to Hollinger Team Stats. That's not going to get it done against scoring machines like the Raptors, Atlanta Hawks or Cleveland Cavaliers.
Most importantly, the Nets simply haven't cultivated a winning pedigree.
"The culture part of any team is hard to change," Hollins told ESPNNewYork.com's Johnette Howard. "And especially with players that have been in the league, because they've had success doing this or that, and then it's, 'Well I've been on winning teams before, and I've still been able to do this.'
"I say, 'Well, where are your aspirations? Just being on a winning team? A winning team is 42-40, you know.'"
This season's aspirations may just be about holding on.
San Antonio Spurs
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The San Antonio Spurs missing the playoffs would be unthinkable, if not for the fact that it's suddenly so plausible. Beset by injuries to six-time All-Star Tony Parker, reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter and Patty Mills, the San Antonio Spurs rode a brutal December schedule to nearly the bottom of the West's playoff crop—as they currently sit at 22-15 and in seventh place.
"I can't imagine a better group to do what they've done this month," Popovich told reporters at the end of 2014. "So I think these guys persevered really well. We probably could have won a few more games.
"I know we could have won a few more games. Just exhaustion got us several times. It looked like it did (against New Orleans) when we were down five in overtime. That's why these guys are a fantastic group. They just keep playing."
Suffice it to say, these haven't been the Spurs we're used to. There have been some thrilling moments along the way, including back-to-back triple-overtime contests in December and a handful of other narrowly decided outings. But from a bottom-line wins and losses perspective, San Antonio has been above average, but no better.
That will almost certainly change—and for the better—but there's no guarantee that it will happen any time soon. Leonard has yet to return, and continued bad luck on the injury front could set this team behind the Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans or Oklahoma City Thunder.
A postseason without the Spurs would feel like Thanksgiving without a turkey, but it's as distinct a possibility as it's ever been.
Milwaukee Bucks
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The Milwaukee Bucks' 20-18 start has been nothing short of shocking. Even those most optimistic about new head coach Jason Kidd's chances with the club couldn't have seen a winning record coming a season after the team posted a league-worst 15-67 record.
Any progress would have been welcome, but the No. 6 seed in the East is a vast overachievement—particularly in the wake of No. 2 overall pick Jabari Parker suffering a season-ending ACL tear in his left knee last month.
This is still a young team with a young coach, though. And that rarely bodes well for postseason chances.
The Bucks could retain their solid position in the standings, but they'll have friends looking to do the same. Figure for Miami and Brooklyn to both make life difficult, and don't be surprised if Charlotte makes a late push back into the conversation.
This is the kind of team that could quickly succumb to a losing streak and find itself on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. But it can cross that bridge when the time comes.
