Chicago Bulls Proving Elite as Derrick Rose Searches for That Level

The Chicago Bulls’ depth was a big reason they were supposed to compete for a title, and as Derrick Rose struggles to regain his MVP form, it’s a big part of why they’re proving to be elite.impac

Pau Gasol (18.1 points per game) and rising star Jimmy Butler (22.1) have taken up the scoring mantle. Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Brooks have capably manned the backup point guard responsibilities. Nikola Mirotic is making a run for Rookie of the Year.

Through all of it, the Bulls are suddenly an elite offense, notching the eighth-best offensive rating in the league, per NBA.com/Stats. That’s an extraordinary leap from 26th, where they were ranked last year. The Bulls have added 5.9 points per 100 possessions, the biggest jump of any team in the league.

In fact, the Bulls have been scoring at a pace they haven’t touched since 1996-97—their record-setting, 72-win season—per Basketball-Reference.com. And while they have been doing that, Derrick Rose has been up and down, in and out of the lineup.

Still, the Bulls are better with him there, and if he gets things going, they could be a terrifying team to face in the playoffs.

Rose’s shooting has been downright bad, falling to 39.7 percent. He’s struggled over the six-game stretch from Dec. 29 to Jan. 7, hitting just 25.5 percent of his shots and a meager 16.7 percent from the three-point line.

Still, Rose is something of a barometer for the Bulls, even though his status as an elite player is in hiatus. They are 19-3 when he scores 10 points or more. They are 6-8 when he either doesn’t play or fails to reach double figures.

So, while they don’t need him to be the MVP version who notched averages of nearly 25 points and eight assists, they need just enough from him, and he’s given them that for the most part.

There is more to a player than his field-goal percentage. Rose’s capacity to impact games comes from his ability to drive the ball, get to the rim and break down defenses. When he’s doing that, it affects the Bulls' offense in other ways.

Because he generates so much defensive attention, it draws extra defenders to him, and that in turn creates open shots for his teammates in the most efficient scoring zones: the paint and the three-point line. 

The team has an effective field-goal percentage of 49.5 percent when he’s on the court and 48.9 percent when he’s on the bench, in spite of his woeful shooting.  The Bulls' offensive rating is 106.1 with him and 105.2 without him.

The Bulls are a better team in the paint when he’s playing. With Rose on the court, the Bulls average 75.9 field goals in the restricted area per 48 minutes and shoot 56.3 percent. When he sits, that falls slightly to 73.7 buckets and 56 percent.

More telling is that the Bovines get 35.8 points per 48 minutes in the paint outside the restricted area with him, making 47.6 percent of their attempts. When he sits, those numbers fall to 24.9 points and 36.8 percent. Rose’s penetration, whether he’s making his shots or not, makes the Bulls a better team inside.

When his teammates attempt threes off his passes, they are shooting a whopping 47.8 percent on the season. Butler, who shoots an effective field-goal percentage of 66.0 percent when Rose delivers him the ball, has benefited the most from his backcourt partner.

In fact, when Rose is on the court, Butler shoots 51.2 percent overall and 43.1 percent from deep. When Rose sits, those rates drop to 45.1 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively.

The point of all this is that while Rose’s shooting may not be a direct positive on the Bulls offense, his style is. And while it seems some have been worrying over whether would Rose be able to play consistently and/or well enough to return to All-Star form, few seem to have asked the more prescient question: What happens if and when he does?

There’s no wondering about Rose’s athleticism or explosiveness. There’s nothing that says he physically can’t return to being the same kind of player he was. But the media, in exploring this story, seems to be intent on treating Rose’s return like an event rather than the process it is.

The reason this is a pertinent consideration is that stats guru Kevin Pelton, writing for ESPN, did a study of how players historically fare when returning from torn ACLs:

"Improvement comes quickly for post-ACL players. While they still shoot much worse than expected on 2-pointers over their next 10 games, from games 21 to 30 they're just 1.6 percent worse than expected. And by games 31 to 40, they actually surpass their season projections."

Rose has played just 26 games, so we should still expect to see him below his averages, based on Pelton’s study, particularly considering the interruptions to Rose’s season. He didn’t play 10 minutes in three consecutive games until Dec. 2. Since then, he’s played 20 of 22 games, the first time he’s accomplished that small feat since his MVP season.

His shooting is going down, and that appears to be cause for concern—but not when you factor in where the shots are coming from. In November, just 59.1 percent of his shots were from two-point range. In December, that rose to 66.8 percent.

So far, in January, it’s at 84.0 percent. Yes, ultimately, those shots need to start falling, but for now, as part of the process, it’s good enough that he’s taking them inside.

On the season, he’s attempted 123 shots within six feet of the rim, but 38 of those have come during his six-game shooting slump, meaning he’s gone from 4.3 close attempts per game to 6.3. That’s where he has historically been the most effective, and it’s an indication that he’s getting his attack-mode mentality back.   

So what happens if, as is normal for players returning from such injuries, Rose reaches that 40- or 50-game threshold and his shot starts to get even better than it was before he got hurt? Or what if it just returns to something close to what it was?

How much more proficient do the Bulls get in the paint? How many more kickouts for three do we see? How much better can Butler get? And how hard will it be to stop the Bulls offense then?

They have added enough scoring to thrive while Rose struggles to find his way, but if he finds it, they could be hanging a banner at season’s end.

Stats for this article were obtained from NBA.com/Stats unless otherwise noted.