Oregon vs. Ohio State: Overlooked Factors in College Football Championship 2015
You don’t have to be a fan of either Ohio State or Oregon to know the main storylines heading into the 2015 College Football Playoff National Championship.
It is the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback in Marcus Mariota and the fast-paced, no-huddle offense of Oregon against the Ohio State defense. It is the third-string quarterback in Cardale Jones for the Buckeyes, trying to lead his team to a third consecutive victory after it appeared all hope was lost when Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett went down with injuries.
It is head coach Urban Meyer going for his third national title against an Oregon program that has never captured one in its history.
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However, what about the overlooked factors in the championship game? There are bound to be some under-the-radar aspects of the game that come into play, especially if the contest comes down to the final minutes.
Here is a look at a few of those.
*Statistics used are courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Kickoff Returns
Unless one goes for a touchdown, kickoff returns are rarely seen as that important in the grand scheme of things; however, field position plays a role in every game and will help determine the winner in Arlington.
Ohio State was 28th in the country in kickoff return average this season, while Oregon was only 78th. What’s more, Ohio State was 11th in opposing kickoff return average, while Oregon was 72nd.
This game features the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense in Oregon and the nation’s No. 5 scoring offense in Ohio State, so field position is even more important than it would be in a typical contest.
For as much credit as Oregon gets for its speed and the athletes all over the field, it is somewhat surprising to see the Ducks so low in both categories. One way to at least potentially contain Mariota is by giving All-American defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Michael Bennett a chance to rush the passer when the Ducks are pinned back deep in their own territory.
The best way to do that is by effectively covering the kickoffs.
On the other side, Oregon’s defense will have its hands full trying to stop all of the weapons that Ohio State has on offense (Jalin Marshall, Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas, Devin Smith, Dontre Wilson and Evan Spencer). If the Buckeyes take over in the short field, it will be a serious problem for the Oregon defense that, at least statistically (111th in the country against the pass), may have trouble keeping them out of the end zone.
These offenses are incredibly difficult to stop regardless of where they start on the field. The best thing the two special teams units can do is at least set up their defenses with favorable field position.
Punting
Keeping with the special teams theme, punting is another overlooked aspect—especially with these squads.
Ohio State only punted 45 times (116th in the country), while Oregon punted 41 times (124th in the country). These offenses score, and they score a lot, which means the punters are rarely used.
However, this is the national championship game, and it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if the offenses are a little tight in the early going. That could lead to a few more punts than either team is used to, which, like the kickoff returns, could work in Ohio State’s favor since the Buckeyes were sixth in the country in yards per punt, while Oregon was an abysmal 102nd.
ESPN.com’s Austin Ward noted that Ohio State punter Cameron Johnston is a serious weapon during the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama:
Again, field position is critical in any game, especially a national championship clash where it could come down to the final minutes. Don’t forget about the punters when making your predictions.
Long Scrimmage Plays
For the purpose of this exercise, let’s define long scrimmage plays as those that go for 20 or more yards. Those are the types of plays that have the ability to set up a long touchdown drive or flip field position and are critical to the attack for both offenses.
Oregon was second in the nation with 101 plays that went for at least 20 yards, while Ohio State was eighth with 84 such plays. Whichever offense can establish more explosive plays than the other can use its tempo to wear out the opposing defense and set the tone for the game.
UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel discussed just how dangerous the Ducks offense really is, per Justin Terranova of the New York Post:
"And if Mariota is right, which he almost always is, you better score. And basically this becomes a tennis match on amphetamines. You have to score because they are going to. They are not going to kick, they are not going to punt, they are going to go for it and you better be up to snuff and if you are not, you are going to get run out of the stadium.
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While Oregon appears to have a slight advantage, given the offensive numbers with Mariota at the helm, it is worth noting that no defense in the country held opponents to fewer plays of 20 or more yards than Ohio State’s (it only happened against the Buckeyes 35 times).
Oregon, on the other hand, gave up an explosive play of 20 or more yards 62 times, which was only 87th in the country.
Perhaps the Buckeyes have a better chance of containing the high-octane Oregon offense than many are giving them credit for, although dealing with the Ducks is much different than dealing with Penn State and Rutgers.
All it may take is one explosive play from either offense to win the national championship.
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