Ultimate Guide to the 2015 National Championship Game
The first College Football Playoff National Championship will pit the 13-1 Ohio State Buckeyes against the 13-1 Oregon Ducks.
The national semifinals did away with Alabama and Florida State—two teams that would have, in all likelihood, played for the national title under the old BCS system—and gave the Ducks and Buckeyes a chance to earn their spots in Arlington, Texas.
Both teams took eager advantage.
Oregon beat Florida State 59-20 in the Rose Bowl, snapping the nation's longest winning streak at 29 games and handing Jameis Winston the first loss of his career (in what would prove to be his final game). Ohio State beat Alabama 42-35 in the Sugar Bowl, overcoming a 21-6 deficit against the supposed best team in the country.
Both teams feel like this is their year, and both are justified in feeling that way. They are the top two teams in the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, and the difference between them is almost too small to count. Both have had championship-worthy seasons, but only one can hoist the new College Football Playoff trophy.
Only one can make history in Jerry's World.
Which one will it be?
When, Where and What Are They Wearing?
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When: Monday, January 12, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: AT&T Stadium—Arlington, Texas
Line: Oregon (-7)*
Uniform Combos
Oregon: White helmet, white jersey, gray pants
Ohio State: Gray helmet, scarlet jersey, gray pants
Side-by-side image can be seen here.
*Betting data courtesy of Odds Shark
Tale of the Tape
2 of 10Who says offense doesn't win championships?
Oregon ranks No. 3 in the country in yards per game (552.9), No. 2 in yards per play (7.39) and No. 2 in points per game (47.2).
Ohio State ranks No. 9 in yards per game (509.7), No. 6 in yards per play (7.03) and No. 5 in points per game (45.0).
The Buckeyes have managed to keep up their pace despite losing star quarterback J.T. Barrett, who fractured his ankle in the regular-season finale against Michigan. Backup Cardale Jones led the team to 59 points against Wisconsin and 42 points against Alabama.
Will Oregon be the first to crack the code?
Key Storyline
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Ohio State Built in Oregon's Image
Urban Meyer took a year away from coaching in 2011, working on his health issues after resigning from Florida.
During that sabbatical, he worked for ESPN as a college football analyst, which allowed him, of course, a lot of time to watch college football. And it was during that time away from the game—err, "away" from the game—that he really became enamored with the program Chip Kelly was building at Oregon.
Meyer explained what he saw, per Ben Axelrod of Bleacher Report:
"You go in there, they are playing Lion King music. They have like a D.J. at practice. Bizarre stuff now. I remember even I was like, "What is this?" I worked for Earle Bruce. Chip and I are good friends, and he says, "You know, this is the only way to do it." I looked at him and said, "What are you talking about this is the only way to do it?" ...
... For Chip Kelly to create a culture—and [Bill] Belichick talks about it all the time—where everyone's aligned, everyone, you walk in the facility, it's about "Win the day."
People walk in the Ohio State football facility now, and it took a little while. But from Amy [Halpin], my assistant, to everybody associated with the facility, people, everyone, this is the way we do it. Really not a whole lot of conversation about it.
"
There's a clip from Meyer's year with ESPN in which he and Kelly break down Oregon's offense. Watching the clip, you can almost see the gears in Meyer's head start to turn. He had always been an offensive genius in his own right, but Kelly's system made such simple sense.
Meyer hired offensive coordinator Tom Herman on Kelly's recommendation, per Axelrod, and the rest was history. Herman won the Broyles Award (best assistant coach in college football) in 2014 and will be the next head coach at Houston.
But whatever sort of influence Meyer has drawn from Kelly is nothing compared to what Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich has drawn from his former boss. Helfrich was Kelly's offensive coordinator for four seasons; he learned the method to the madness from within.
They'll both be on the sidelines come Monday—and Kelly, now the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, will reportedly be with them.
Which one of his systems will win it all?
Rose Bowl Star Trying to Stay Hot
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WR Darren Carrington, Oregon
Darren Carrington continued his big-play ways against Florida State, catching seven passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns.
It's been a wild end to the season for the redshirt freshman, who also posted a similar line—seven catches, 126 yards and one touchdown—against Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Check out these ridiculous splits:
| Catches / Game | Yards / Game | TD / Game | |
| First 12 Games | 1.9 | 34.4 | 0.08 |
| Past Two Games | 7.0 | 145.5 | 1.50 |
Carrington broke the Rose Bowl open with 56- and 30-yard touchdowns in the third quarter. Before he caught his first, the score was 25-20. After he caught his second, the score was 39-20. He is the nitro in Oregon's offense, the explosive gas it uses to pull away.
Ohio State can't let him run free.
Update: On Friday, Carrington was suspended for the title game after failing an NCAA administered drug test, per Aaron Fentress of Comcast SportsNet.
Sugar Bowl Star Trying to Stay Hot
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LB Darron Lee, Ohio State
Darron Lee was everywhere against Alabama, finishing the Sugar Bowl with seven tackles, three tackles for loss and two sacks.
But who the heck is this guy anyway?
Recruited as a 3-star athlete, Lee actually played quarterback in high school before redshirting for Ohio State in 2013. He started as a safety but added some weight and moved to linebacker, where his speed resembled that of Ryan Shazier—a 2013 All-American whom Lee assured teammates he was good enough to replace.
"I was like, 'Sure, buddy you are,'" said sophomore defensive end Joey Bosa, Lee's freshman roommate, per Ben Axelrod of Bleacher Report. "He came in here as a safety or something and he played scout team linebacker and I just didn't believe him. ... All of a sudden he's in spring and he's killing people. He got huge."
Ohio State will need Lee's speed against Oregon, an offense that so famously relies on being faster than opponents. If he plays like he did against Alabama, the Buckeyes can pull the upset.
Top 2015 NFL Draft Prospects
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Bleacher Report's draft guru, Matt Miller, released his first postseason Big Board on Jan. 6. Twelve players scheduled to play in the CFP National Championship ranked inside the top 206:
| Player | Team | Pos. Rank | Overall Rank |
| QB Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 1 | 1 |
| DT Michael Bennett | Ohio State | 4 | 33 |
| DE DeForest Buckner | Oregon | 8 | 47 |
| OT Jake Fisher | Oregon | 9 | 52 |
| WR Devin Smith | Ohio State | 8 | 55 |
| DE Arik Armstead | Oregon | 14 | 75 |
| TE Jeff Heuerman | Ohio State | 3 | 85 |
| OC Hroniss Grasu | Oregon | 3 | 96 |
| OLB Tony Washington | Oregon | 9 | 118 |
| CB Doran Grant | Ohio State | 18 | 140 |
| SS Erick Dargan | Oregon | 5 | 167 |
| OLB Derrick Malone | Oregon | 14 | 206 |
Both teams also have one draft prospect who won't suit up Monday.
For Ohio State, that player is defensive end Noah Spence, who was suspended for the year after failing a second drug test in September. On the other side, Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu injured his knee in practice before the Rose Bowl.
It's fair to say those absences cancel out.
How Can Ohio State Stop Marcus Mariota?
7 of 10Bleacher Report's Michael Felder took a hard look at Marcus Mariota, the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner and consensus best player in the country, and came up with some keys to stopping him.
"[Ohio State has to] get pressure with their defensive front," he says in the above video. "Joey Bosa has got to be walking tackles back into the quarterback, keeping contain but also able to get a sack."
But it's not just bringing pressure that is key to stopping Mariota; it's bringing disciplined pressure. "Rush lane integrity is critical," says Felder, who highlights a play in which Utah's defensive ends stay wide, force Mariota to step up in the pocket and allow defensive tackle Lowell Lotulelei to squeeze inside for the sack.
Finally, Felder says, the Buckeyes must assign a man to running back Royce Freeman (or Thomas Tyner) and keep him from slipping out of the backfield. Mariota uses his running backs often, relying on them as safety valves, and teams have trouble stopping it because they are so preoccupied with spying Mariota as a runner.
Ohio State cannot fall into that trap.
How Can Oregon Stop Ezekiel Elliott?
8 of 10Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott has come on strong at the end of the season. He has four consecutive 100-yard games and two straight 200-yard games, and he needed just 40 carries to rack up 450 yards and four touchdowns against Wisconsin and Alabama.
Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee takes the conventional approach to stopping him, saying Oregon needs a strong game from its front seven (Tony Washington, DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, et al.). The Ducks had trouble stopping the run against Florida State but came up big when it mattered most, forcing turnovers in crucial moments.
Michael Felder, however, thinks the key to stopping Ohio State's running game is actually stopping Ohio State's passing game. If the Buckeyes can keep Oregon's secondary honest, force it to play two deep safeties and keep Erick Dargan from stacking the box, there is no way to stop them.
"I don't think you can stop Ohio State's run game with seven," Felder says in the video above. "And for that reason…I think the big key is going to be Ohio State pushing the ball downfield."
Cardale Jones has shown a willingness and ability to test the deep third. But the vertical passing game, not unlike the three-point shot in basketball, is one of those things that teams both live and die by.
Oregon needs to force some near-misses.
Key to the Game (via the Common Opponent)
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Oregon and Ohio State have a common opponent: the Michigan State Spartans.
MSU went 11-0 against teams that didn't make the national title game but lost to both the Ducks and the Buckeyes. Oregon beat it 46-27 in Eugene, and Ohio State won 49-37 in Spartan Stadium.
Adam Rittenberg of ESPN.com spoke with multiple members of the Spartans program, enlisting them to help break down Monday's game. The entire piece is worth reading, but one thing that stuck out was what MSU coaches and players agreed would be the key to winning the matchup: maximizing scoring opportunities.
"Third downs become very critical, whether it's 3rd-and-short or 3rd-and-long. When you get in the red zone, you want to get touchdowns, not field goals," said MSU offensive coordinator Dave Warner. "Those things become even more important when you're going against a high-powered offense."
"This isn't a game," added All-American safety Kurtis Drummond, "where it's going to be easy to win beating yourselves."
Ohio State beat itself for a while in the Sugar Bowl, kicking two short field goals and committing a costly first-half turnover that led to points. Oregon was the opposite in the Rose Bowl, stopping Florida State on a crucial 4th-and-goal in the first half and turning turnovers into touchdowns once it started to smell blood.
Which team will make the most of its chances Monday?
The answer might decide who wins the game.
Predictions
10 of 10There was discord among the experts in the video above: Barrett Sallee and Adam Kramer both picked Oregon to beat Ohio State on the strength of its running game, but Michael Felder chose Ohio State to defeat Oregon on the strength of Joey Bosa and its defense.
Bleacher Report's Greg Couch made a blunt prediction after watching the Ducks beat Florida State in the Rose Bowl, writing, simply: "Oregon is going to win the national championship."
Personally, though, I side with Felder.
Florida State made running through Oregon's defense look easy but had to abandon the run once the game got out of control. Ohio State should find similar success. If it can avoid turnovers—one of those variables that is impossible to predict—it can control the clock, move the chains, score some points and keep Marcus Mariota off the field, and it can do all those things with one stone.
The Big Ten is a laughingstock no more.
Final Score: Ohio State 38, Oregon 35
