Timofey Mozgov Trade Clears Way for Budding Beast Jusuf Nurkic to Thrive
The Denver Nuggets took a significant step toward embracing a younger, asset-based approach Wednesday afternoon when they agreed to ship center Timofey Mozgov and a 2015 second-round pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for two first-round picks.
ESPN's Marc Stein and Brian Windhorst were the first to pass along the news:
Not only will Denver acquire protected 2015 first-round picks originally owned by the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder, but it will now be able to thrust rapidly rising rookie Jusuf Nurkic into head coach Brian Shaw's starting lineup.
The Denver Post's Chris Dempsey confirmed that sentiment while outlining the first-year big's stellar play of late:
To expand on Dempsey's point, Nurkic has made the most of touches in limited minutes over his past 10 games, averaging 9.1 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks while playing 17.4 minutes a night during that span.
As a result, the 6'11'', 280-pound Bosnian behemoth is posting staggering per-36-minute averages of 17.4 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.1 blocks and 2.0 steals, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Furthermore, the Nuggets are an absurd 11.5 points better per 100 defensive possessions with Nurkic on the floor, posting a defensive rating of 95.4 in said minutes. If that mark spanned the course of the regular season, it would rank No. 1 overall, according to NBA.com.
Despite entering his rookie campaign facing tempered expectations as a 20-year-old international prospect facing a steep learning curve, Nurkic's play has been nothing short of revelatory for a team searching to fortify its future offerings with a steady foundation of young talent.
Case in point: Nurkic leads all rookies in player efficiency rating with a mark of 18.98, according to ESPN.com. Only one other rookie (Nikola Mirotic, 18.08) is within four points of his top-ranked total.
Here's how Nurkic's PER stacks up against a few recent high-profile lottery picks:
| Andrew Wiggins | 11.52 | 1 |
| Jabari Parker | 14.67 | 2 |
| Dante Exum | 8.03 | 5 |
| Nerlens Noel | 9.70 | 6 (2013) |
| Nik Stauskas | 5.90 | 8 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | 18.98 | 16 |
In his 309 minutes on the floor to date, Nurkic has posted an offensive rating of 102.7, 0.4 points better than the Nuggets' mark with him off the floor, according to NBA.com. And while that negligible margin isn't awe-inspiring, it's unquestionably encouraging for a player with plenty of empty pouches on his offensive utility belt.
As Shaw discussed in late December, according to Dempsey, Nurkic didn't enter the league as a liability with the ball in his hands like several of his contemporaries:
"He's a guy that I have confidence throwing the ball inside to. He can post, and he can score. And if he doesn't have that, he's shown the propensity to make plays for his teammates when they cut off him. I think now his teammates are starting to cut harder when he has the ball, because they know he'll pass it.
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That sort of instinctual proficiency is one of the reasons Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has Nurkic rated as the 2014 draft's No. 4 prospect at this point in time.
"He blends monster size with mobile feet and soft hands," Wasserman wrote. "Even without polish or go-to moves, Nurkic has that Nikola Pekovic-like ability to gain position and improvise with over-the-shoulder shots and scoops."
As the tape suggests, Nurkic's blend of hooks and turnarounds isn't the most aesthetically pleasing. But with the raw size and wherewithal to thrust shots up and over defenders, there's a lot to like about his developmental savvy as a supplementary scorer.
This is hardly a center who's dependent upon deep post touches to score, though. While the easiest looks may come via Nurkic's ability to carve out operating room deep in the post, he's proved to be a capable weapon diving to the basket or catching and turning with his back to the hoop.
With soft hands, nimble feet and surprising composure, Nurkic has flashed the ability to score when putting the ball on the deck, too. Specifically, Nurkic is shooting 50 percent when using one dribble and a respectable 45.5 percent on shots that require a two-dribble setup, according to NBA.com.
"He's fearless," Shaw said, according to Dempsey. "And he's very, very physical. And that's what we need on this team. So, he provides a much-needed ingredient for our team."
Speaking of much-needed ingredients, Nurkic has been blossoming on defense over the past few months while Denver has floundered with the league's 21st-ranked efficiency rating on that end.
While plenty has been made of Mozgov's rim-protecting capabilities, Nurkic hasn't been too shabby either. In fact, when it comes to opponents' shooting inside of six feet, Nurkic has limited them to 52.1 percent shooting, 7.7 percent below the league average, per NBA.com. For comparison's sake, opponents are converting 55.8 percent of their looks inside of six feet against Mozgov.
Now, Mozgov is defending nearly twice as many shots within that range per game, so volume-related caveats certainly apply. But the general impact of Nurkic's presence has been evident during the early stages of his career, and he could emerge as a key structural component in the Mile High City if general manager Tim Connelly continues selling off veteran contracts in exchange for future assets.
For now, though, the Nuggets should be content to let Nurkic off the leash and watch his minutes balloon as he slithers into the Rookie of the Year conversation.
All statistics accurate prior to games played January 8, 2015.
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