Future of Saints, Sean Payton Depends on the Success of Rob Ryan

The New Orleans Saints finished 7-9 in 2014 primarily due to the poor play of the team's defense.

Instead of making a change in an attempt to shake things up, Saints head coach Sean Payton decided to retain defensive coordinator Rob Ryan for a third season. In doing so, the futures of both coaches are inextricably tied to the performance of the defense. 

The Times-Picayune's Larry Holder, citing sources, reported "Ryan's job is 'safe' and he will remain the New Orleans Saints' defensive coordinator for the 2015 season."

Holder added that "there are looming changes to the defensive coaching staff as well as personnel on that side of the ball."

Even after missing the playoffs for the second time in three years, the organization's goals remain lofty. The possibility of finishing 8-8 and squeaking into the playoffs—as the team nearly accomplished this past season—isn't good enough. 

"We want to be the No. 1 seed and get into the playoffs and have a great chance, an increased chance at getting to the Super Bowl, so 8-8 is not going to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC," Saints general manager Mickey Loomis said during his postseason press conference. 

The Saints consider themselves a championship-caliber organization.

Payton expressed the same sentiments as Loomis a week earlier during his press conference, per ESPN's Mike Triplett: 

"

Honestly, and I say this in a very humble way, I hope that none of us feel like the ‘13 season was one where we were ready to have a second Mardi Gras parade. Look, we made the postseason, we had a chance to win the division and we couldn’t finish at the end at Carolina. And we got a playoff win, I recognize that was a big deal. But our aspirations are higher than that.

"

These expectations can only be achieved through a total team effort. 

A primary sticking point once the season came to a close was Ryan's status with the team. Payton never provided a definitive answer, but he continued to show signs of support for his coordinator even though the bottom fell out of the team's defense in 2014. 

After finishing fourth in total defense in 2013, the Saints plummeted to 31st overall a year later. The unit ranked among the league's bottom 10 teams in pass defense, run defense, sacks and points allowed. 

Nothing went right on that side of the football, and Ryan admitted the hype entering the season got to his defense:

"

Obviously we drank the Kool-Aid a little bit too much, I think. And if they don't think so, I think that's wrong. I think that's an honest opinion. I think we forgot how we had success [last year]. You know, the 'Nola' defense, where nobody likes our ass. That's how we played better, when our backs were against the wall, when we had a lot to prove.

"

It's Ryan's job to keep his unit grounded, which obviously proved difficult for the mercurial coordinator. 

With Payton's intention of keeping Ryan, though, the organization will throw its full support behind him and find ways to improve the woeful defense. It will be extremely difficult, though. 

Some improvement will occur naturally.

Key contributors—such as All-Pro safety Jairus Byrd, veteran defensive back Rafael Bush and starting nose tackle Brodrick Bunkley—will return fully healthy. 

Their inclusion into the lineup will allow Ryan to utilize the entire playbook instead of scaling back his calls due to a lack of experience or talent on the field. 

Also, natural progression from the young talent on the roster should be expected.

The secondary, in particular, will be a major focal point with cornerbacks Brian Dixon and Stanley Jean-Baptiste entering their second season and a bounce-back performance expected from safety Kenny Vaccaro. Vaccaro, the team's first-round pick in the 2013 NFL draft, was essentially benched at the end of the season. The Texas product needs to return to the caliber of play seen during his rookie campaign.

Some personal changes should also be expected. 

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport tweeted the importance of retaining Ryan:

However, Payton's ability to actually provide Ryan with the needed pieces is going to be far more difficult than initially anticipated. 

Cornerback Patrick Robinson, inside linebacker Ramon Humber and outside linebacker Parys Haralson are free agents at the start of the NFL's new year. The trio combined to start 24 games in 2014. Each of them was on the field for at least 453 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). 

OverTheCap.com currently projects the Saints will be $20-plus million over the 2015 salary cap. Not only is it unlikely the previously mentioned veterans will be re-signed, but the team will have to make other significant moves in order to get under the NFL's mandated hard cap. 

This leaves the Saints very little wiggle room to significantly upgrade the talent on the roster through free agency. Multiple veterans with hefty contracts will be asked to restructure their current agreements or be released. 

The effect will likely be felt on both sides of the ball. 

In order to create improvement within the defense without the ability to spend copious amounts of money, the team will instead rely on familiarity and possible tweaks to Ryan's scheme to return to the style of play first seen under the coordinator's tutelage. 

A third year under Ryan will allow the veterans an increased comfort level in his system.

Undoubtedly, one of the reasons the Saints retained Ryan was due to the players' rallying around him after the season.

"I want him back," cornerback Keenan Lewis told NOLA.com in December. "I'm going to ride with him, 100 (percent). He's a great coordinator. You just can't blame him when things go wrong. We're the ones out there playing."

Even though certain players took the blame for the defense's poor play, Ryan's defenses have never been consistently good. In his 11 seasons as a coordinator, Ryan's units finished in the top half of the league only three times.

The Saints organization just committed itself to a coordinator that has proven to be mediocre throughout his play-calling career. 

The only recourse may be to reconsider how Ryan's scheme is employed. 

NOLA.com's Jeff Duncan tweeted at least one difference that may be implemented in the fall: 

Ryan liked to utilize a four-man front to highlight Junior Galette's and Cameron Jordan's abilities as pass-rushers. Yet the team finished with 15 fewer sacks in 2014 compared to the preseason season.

If the coordinator plans to rely more heavily on a three-man front next season, a replacement and competent pass-rusher opposite Galette will be a requirement at outside linebacker. With the 30-year-old Haralson set to test free agency, a void exists at the position. Kasim Edebali could take over as the starter in his second year, but he should still be considered a long-term project after an up-and-down rookie campaign. 

For every positive of keeping Ryan, there are going to be lingering concerns. 

The Saints defense doesn't need to be completely dominant, though. It simply needs to be competent. It wasn't this past season. It needs to be if the organization is going to realize its goal of being a legitimate contender for the Super Bowl. 

Right now, the franchise is merely treading water after a disappointing season, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. 

Another subpar defensive campaign will almost certainly signal the end of Ryan's time in New Orleans, and it could doom Payton to the same fate as well. 

Brent Sobleski covers the NFC South for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.