Projecting College Football's Final Top 25 Teams
It's hard to believe, but just one meaningful game remains in the 2014 college football season. All of the hype, all of the talk, all of the action, all of it is wrapped up in one game. When Oregon and Ohio State meet to decide the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday night at AT&T Stadium, a most entertaining season will come to a close.
Tuesday morning, the Buckeyes or Ducks will sit atop the final Top 25 rankings. But how will the rankings shake out below the champion? Which teams made moves in the postseason and which teams slipped?
We decided to take a look at projecting the final Top 25 ranks. This is one person's opinion, with moves up and down based on teams' postseason performance. It is, by no means, a binding ranking, but rather a projection. As we've found out, the College Football Playoff selection committee's findings can be highly unpredictable.
25. Marshall
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A 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky kept Marshall out of a "New Year’s Six" game, but the Thundering Herd finished strong with a 52-23 Boca Raton Bowl bashing of MAC champion Northern Illinois. Doc Holliday’s team finished 13-1 and won the Conference USA title.
The Herd were the best team you probably didn’t see much of this season. They didn’t defeat a Power Five opponent, but dominated their foes, averaging 45.6 points per game, No. 4 nationally. Senior quarterback Rakeem Cato went out in style, throwing for 3,903 yards with 40 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. He added 482 yards rushing with eight touchdowns. Senior Tommy Shuler was his best target, catching 92 passes for 1,138 yards and nine scores.
With Cato and Shuler gone, it’ll be hard for Marshall to replicate this season’s success, but the Herd will try. Regardless, 2014 was a season to remember.
24. LSU
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2014 was a decidedly up-and-down season for LSU and coach Les Miles. A disappointing 31-28 Music City Bowl loss to Notre Dame left the Tigers 8-5, but they did manage wins over Big Ten West champ Wisconsin as well as then-No. 3 Ole Miss, and took SEC champ Alabama to overtime before falling 20-13.
However, when the Tigers were off, they were off. They lost 41-7 at Auburn and suffered a desultory 17-0 loss at Arkansas. While freshman Leonard Fournette rushed for 1,034 yards and 10 touchdowns, looking like a future Heisman candidate, neither Anthony Jennings nor Brandon Harris distinguished themselves at quarterback, and LSU managed 162.9 passing yards per game, No. 116 nationally. A defense that allowed 17.5 points per game, fifth nationally, kept Miles’ bunch in games.
This was a young roster that suffered from massive early draft departures two years in a row. If Miles can keep more talent in Baton Rouge, 2015 will be brighter.
23. Louisville
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Despite an ugly 37-14 Belk Bowl loss to Georgia, Louisville proved that it belonged in the ACC. The Cardinals finished 9-4, beat Miami, Notre Dame and rival Kentucky and pushed new ACC Atlantic rivals Clemson and Florida State hard.
Bobby Petrino proved that you can go home again in his second stint in Louisville, keeping the Cardinals competitive as they stepped up in class from the American Athletic Conference. The Cards defense was solid again, allowing 21.8 points per game, No. 24 nationally, under new coordinator Todd Grantham.
However, Petrino will have some holes to fill next fall. Leading receiver DeVante Parker (43 receptions, 855 yards, five touchdowns in just six games) is NFL-bound. So are starting safeties Gerod Holliman, the Jim Thorpe winner with an NCAA record-tying 14 interceptions, and fellow safety James Sample, the team’s leading tackler. The ACC won’t get any easier for Petrino and Louisville.
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22. Southern California
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Steve Sarkisian’s first season as Southern California head coach wasn’t perfect, but the Trojans did finish with a flourish, blowing out Notre Dame and surviving Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl for a 9-4 record. Junior quarterback Cody Kessler quietly had an excellent season, throwing for 39 touchdowns against five interceptions with 3,826 yards. And freshman Adoree’ Jackson was immediately one of the top all-around players in America.
Kessler will have to survive next season without top receiver Nelson Agholor (104 receptions, 1,313 yards, 12 touchdowns), who declared for the NFL draft, per Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times. It’s also no shock that fearsome defensive end Leonard Williams (a surefire top-10 pick in the draft) did so as well. Sarkisian was just 2-2 against ranked foes, including a 38-20 loss to crosstown rival UCLA that won’t sit well.
21. Auburn
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Following an unexpected trip to the BCS title game, 2014 was something of a step back for Auburn. The Tigers started 7-1 and were in the thick of the College Football Playoff chase in early November, but lost four of their final five games, including a 34-31 Outback Bowl overtime loss to Wisconsin, to finish 8-5.
The Tigers defense was leaky, allowing 26.7 points per game, and that cost defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson his job, with former Florida coach Will Muschamp hired as his replacement. Auburn also says goodbye to its top three rushers in Cameron Artis-Payne (1,608 yards), senior dual-threat quarterback Nick Marshall and fellow senior Corey Grant, as well as top receiver Sammie Coates, an early NFL draft departure.
Jeremy Johnson was impressive in relief of Marshall at quarterback, and he’ll likely be the man for Auburn under center next fall. It'll miss Marshall, who ran Gus Malzahn’s hurry-up offense well and kept opponents guessing.
20. Utah
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Despite reported friction between coach Kyle Whittingham and Utah’s administration, it was a good year for the Utes. Utah finished 9-4 following a Las Vegas Bowl blowout of Colorado State, a much-needed result following a pair of 5-7 seasons.
Junior tailback Devontae Booker looked like one of the best backs in college football, rushing for 1,512 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Utes still need a consistent quarterback next season, but they still managed to beat UCLA, Southern Cal and Stanford. On the field, this was a big step forward for Whittingham’s program.
19. Boise State
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In Bryan Harsin’s first season, Boise State staked a claim it held under former coach Chris Petersen as the best team not in a Power Five conference. The Broncos only losses came to Ole Miss and Air Force, and they finished 12-2 with a Fiesta Bowl win over Arizona, the third Fiesta win in program history.
Boise finished the season on a nine-game win streak and averaged 39.7 points per game, No. 9 nationally. Tailback Jay Ajayi rushed for 1,823 yards and 28 touchdowns, but his early NFL draft departure leaves a major hole in the Broncos’ offense. Boise also must replace senior quarterback Grant Hedrick, who threw for 3,696 yards with 23 touchdowns against 14 interceptions.
Repeating that feat won’t be easy, but Harsin has some serious momentum as he begins his second season in Boise.
18. Wisconsin
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While Wisconsin’s 2014 season fell short of its ultimate goal, it’ll still be remembered fondly in Madison. The Badgers finished 11-3 and everyone witnessed a truly special season from junior tailback Melvin Gordon. Gordon rushed for 2,587 yards (the second-best single-season mark in NCAA history) and 29 touchdowns, finishing as the Heisman Trophy runner-up before declaring for the NFL draft on The Dan Patrick Show in mid-December.
A 59-0 Big Ten title game loss to Ohio State was dispiriting, as was Gary Andersen’s decision to bolt for Oregon State after just two seasons at the program’s helm. But former coach/athletic director Barry Alvarez led the Badgers to a 34-31 Outback Bowl overtime win over Auburn, and he hired former assistant Paul Chryst away from Pitt to take Andersen’s place. Despite the losses, Chryst inherits a solid foundation in Madison, especially with the Big Ten West in flux.
17. Clemson
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Clemson’s 2014 wasn’t perfect, but it’s telling that Dabo Swinney and Co. still managed to win 10 games for the fourth consecutive season, capped by a 40-6 Russell Athletic Bowl rout of Oklahoma. Losses to Georgia, Florida State and Georgia Tech were disappointing (particularly the 23-17 overtime loss to the Seminoles in Tallahassee, which saw the Tigers fumble inside the FSU 20 with the score tied and less than two minutes to go), but Swinney’s bunch snapped its five-year hex against South Carolina with an emphatic 35-17 rout.
When healthy, Deshaun Watson was a breakout star at quarterback, throwing for 1,466 yards and 14 touchdowns against two interceptions. He’ll have two impressive wide receiver targets next season in Mike Williams and Artavis Scott (one of the nation’s top freshman pass-catchers).
There are questions surrounding a nasty defense that allowed 16.7 points per game, third-best nationally, as eight starters depart, including most of the front seven. But talent remains on the roster, and this team should again challenge for the ACC title.
16. Missouri
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For the second consecutive season, Missouri defied expectations. Following a surprising SEC East championship in 2013, few expected a repeat, but Gary Pinkel led the Tigers’ charge back to Atlanta. They lost to Alabama but still won 11 games thanks to a Citrus Bowl win over Minnesota.
Sophomore Maty Mauk was up and down in his first season as a starter, throwing 25 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. He’ll lose his top two receivers, Bud Sasser and Jimmie Hunt, to graduation. Leading rusher Russell Hansbrough (1,084 yards, 10 touchdowns) will return, but Mizzou will likely need a replacement for junior end Shane Ray, a consensus All-American who is expected to declare for the NFL draft.
Missouri’s move to the SEC looked surprising, but the Tigers have proven they have claws and belong in their new league.
15. Arizona State
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Todd Graham has been something of a college football nomad, but he’s building something very solid at Arizona State. The Sun Devils grabbed their second consecutive 10-win season with a Sun Bowl win over Duke, and were often a very fun team to watch.
ASU averaged 36.9 points per game, No. 17 nationally, and went 5-2 in games against ranked opponents, with a 42-35 loss to No. 10 Arizona keeping them out of the Pac-12 title game. Graham must find a replacement for NFL-bound wideout Jaelen Strong, who had 82 receptions for 1,165 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he’ll return versatile tailback D.J. Foster. Foster rushed for 1,081 yards and nine touchdowns and was also the Devils’ second-leading receiver with 62 receptions for 688 yards and three touchdowns.
If ASU’s defense can mature and improve (the Sun Devils allowed 27.9 points per game, No. 76 nationally), Graham’s bunch could stake a place among the Pac-12 and the nation’s elite.
14. Kansas State
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For Kansas State, a 2014 filled with promise probably finished somewhere south of fulfilling. The Wildcats won every game they were expected to, and, with the exception of a 31-30 win at then-No. 11 Oklahoma (who finished 8-5), lost every game they were supposed to.
Bill Snyder’s team was in the Big 12 and College Football Playoff chase until November, but lost lopsided games at TCU and Baylor and suffered a 40-35 Alamo Bowl loss to UCLA.
They’ll move forward without departing senior quarterback Jake Waters (3,501 yards, 22 touchdowns) and senior standout wideout Tyler Lockett, a do-everything threat who finished with 106 receptions for 1,515 yards and 11 touchdowns. Snyder’s teams will always be competitive, but a 9-4 season feels like opportunity lost.
13. UCLA
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Jim Mora’s second consecutive 10-win season at UCLA had its ups and downs, but was largely successful. The Bruins lost to Utah and Oregon and ultimately cost themselves any hopes of a Pac-12 title with a no-show 31-10 loss to Stanford in the regular-season finale, but looked impressive in a 40-35 Alamo Bowl win over Kansas State.
Junior quarterback Brett Hundley showed why he’s prized by NFL teams, throwing for 3,155 yards with 22 touchdowns against five interceptions, and tailback Paul Perkins had a breakout season, rushing for 1,572 yards and nine touchdowns. The Bruins must find a replacement for Hundley, who is off to the NFL, but Mora is building something special in Westwood.
12. Georgia
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Georgia put together one of the most frustrating 10-win seasons in recent memory. The Bulldogs clinched double-digit wins with a Belk Bowl rout of Louisville and former defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, but that doesn’t erase the sting of losing to rivals South Carolina, Florida or Georgia Tech and losing the SEC East to Missouri.
Todd Gurley had 911 yards and nine touchdowns in a season truncated by an NCAA suspension and torn ACL, but freshman Nick Chubb was the real star, rushing for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns. UGA averaged 41.3 points per game, No. 8 nationally, but now must replace offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, who became Colorado State’s head coach.
Longtime head coach Mark Richt had to shoot down retirement rumors following the Belk Bowl, and the heat won’t lessen anytime soon in Athens.
11. Ole Miss
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For Ole Miss, 2014 was a season of what might have been. The Rebels escaped SEC West mediocrity with a 7-0 start that included an upset of Alabama, but finished 2-4 with an embarrassing 42-3 Peach Bowl loss to TCU.
The Rebels boasted the nation’s top scoring defense at 16 points per game with a nasty all-around group, but never picked up the slack offensively. Senior quarterback Bo Wallace threw for 3,194 yards with 22 touchdowns against 14 interceptions but was far too inconsistent. Ole Miss never recovered offensively from losing wideout Laquon Treadwell to a broken leg in the Auburn game. Adding insult to injury, he fumbled the potential game-winning touchdown into the end zone in a 35-31 loss.
Standout left tackle Laremy Tunsil suffered a broken leg in the Peach Bowl, and the Rebels also must replace standout secondary seniors in All-Americans Senquez Golson and Cody Prewitt. Hugh Freeze still has talent on the roster, but replicating October’s magic won’t be easy.
10. Arizona
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Despite ending the season with a Pac-12 title loss to Oregon and a Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State, 2014 was a big step forward for Rich Rodriguez and Arizona. The Wildcats rode a young core to a Pac-12 South title and handed Oregon its only loss of the regular season, an impressive feat.
Arizona had one of the nation’s best defensive players in linebacker Scooby Wright and an impressive offensive freshman duo in quarterback Anu Solomon and tailback Nick Wilson. Solomon was a bit rough around the edges but threw for 3,793 yards with 28 touchdowns against nine interceptions and Wilson rushed for 1,375 yards with 16 touchdowns.
Rodriguez ran a fun, fast-paced offense and brought excitement back to Tucson. The future looks bright.
9. Mississippi State
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Despite an Orange Bowl loss to Georgia Tech, 2014 will be a season to remember in Starkville. The Bulldogs cast off SEC West middle-of-the-pack aspirations to start 9-0 and ascend to No. 1 nationally. Losses to Alabama and rival Ole Miss sucked some of the fun from that start, but who expected such highs from the Bulldogs, regardless?
Junior quarterback Dak Prescott emerged as one of the nation’s top dual-threat quarterbacks, throwing for 3,449 yards with 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and adding 986 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. The Dawgs must replace NFL-bound 1,200-yard rusher Josh Robinson, per ESPN.com's Edward Aschoff, and linebacker Benardrick McKinney, but they’ll apparently keep Dan Mullen and all of the associated national buzz that will follow them into 2015.
8. Georgia Tech
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What a turnaround season for Georgia Tech. Paul Johnson entered 2014 with many wondering if his tenure in Atlanta had gone stale. He ended it with 11 wins and an Orange Bowl victory over Mississippi State, only the second bowl win of his Tech tenure.
The Yellow Jackets defeated rivals Georgia and Clemson and put a major scare into Florida State in the ACC title game. Quarterback Justin Thomas was a revelation in his first season as a starter, throwing for 1,719 yards with 18 touchdowns against six interceptions while also serving as Tech’s leading rusher, going for 1,086 yards and eight touchdowns.
In one sweet season, Tech proved that Johnson’s system isn’t stale, and the Jackets must be reckoned with as ACC contenders.
7. Baylor
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Oh, what might have been. Baylor won a share of its second consecutive Big 12 title and a Bryce Petty-led offense led the nation with 48.2 points per game. But 2014 will be remembered for all the wrong reasons in Waco.
The Bears won 11 games, but narrowly missed the College Football Playoff. And hoping to make a statement in the Cotton Bowl, they led Michigan State 41-21 through three quarters, only to see the Spartans rally for a shocking 42-41 victory.
Shock Linwood, who ran for 1,252 yards, will return next fall, as will receivers Corey Coleman and KD Cannon, who combined for 2,149 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns. But this season will ultimately go down as a near-miss in the most frustrating of fashions.
6. Michigan State
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Following a 13-1 season, Big Ten title and Rose Bowl championship, Michigan State took a slight step back this fall—but only ever so slight. The Spartans’ only losses came to national title game participants Oregon and Ohio State, and Mark Dantonio’s team looked like one of the nation’s top all-around outfits.
They finished 12-2, with the season punctuated by a stirring Cotton Bowl comeback that saw Michigan State erase a 41-21 fourth-quarter deficit by scoring the game’s final 21 points. They averaged 43 points per game, No. 7 nationally, and allowed 21.5 points per game, No. 22 nationally.
Junior Connor Cook emerged as one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks, throwing for 3,214 yards with 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions. He’s returning for his senior year but will do so without his top rusher, Jeremy Langford (1,522 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns), and top receiver, Tony Lippett (65 receptions, 1,198 yards, 11 touchdowns). Still, MSU has emerged as a national power, as this season showed.
5. TCU
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It’s hard to imagine a team that had a bigger turnaround in 2014 than TCU. Coming off a 4-8 2013, the Horned Frogs installed the Air Raid offense and came within a whisker of the College Football Playoff with a 12-1 season, the only blemish coming in a 61-58 loss to Baylor.
They took out their frustration on Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl with one of the most impressive efforts of the postseason, a 42-3 rout. TCU averaged 46.5 points per game, No. 3 nationally, and also had a solid defense that allowed just 19 points per game, No. 8 nationally.
Junior quarterback Trevone Boykin was one of the nation’s biggest breakout stars. The one-time wide receiver threw for 3,901 yards with 33 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and was also the Frogs’ No. 2 rusher with 707 yards and eight touchdowns. Gary Patterson is one of the nation’s best coaches, and he carries huge momentum into 2015.
4. Florida State
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While those who don’t care for Florida State will remember the 59-20 Rose Bowl defeat that ended the Seminoles’ 29-game winning streak, coach Jimbo Fisher and his staff will find plenty of positives in the 2014 season.
Until Oregon found the magic potion (turnovers and Marcus Mariota), the Seminoles looked impossible to beat. They won seven games by six points or less and erased a trio of double-digit road deficits. Sophomore quarterback Jameis Winston took a step back from his 2013 Heisman Trophy campaign, throwing for 3,907 yards with 25 touchdowns against 18 interceptions, but he remained an impressive clutch presence. He is declaring for the NFL draft, per ESPN.com's David Hale.
FSU must replace top receivers Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary, but it still has a wealth of young talent led by freshman tailback Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,008 yards. The ‘Noles might have been knocked off their perch, but they’ll still be a presence in the ACC and nationally.
3. Alabama
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Alabama took a step forward this season, but it likely won’t be remembered that way by the Crimson Tide’s rabid fans. Following last season’s disappointing end with losses to Auburn and Oklahoma, the Tide won the SEC title and finished 12-2, but a Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State meant the College Football Playoff’s top seed finished short of expectations.
Nick Saban’s hire of Lane Kiffin as offensive coordinator breathed life into the offense, as ‘Bama averaged 36.9 points per game, No. 16 nationally. Blake Sims grabbed the starting quarterback role as a senior and was largely solid, throwing for 3,487 yards with 28 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. And Amari Cooper was the nation’s top receiver with 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns on 124 receptions.
But there will be questions about the defense, which allowed a combined 97 points to Auburn and Ohio State. That isn’t Alabama-like, although the Tide’s defense was young. For defensive coordinator Kirby Smart and Saban, that’ll be unacceptable. Still, Alabama remains among the nation’s elite programs and will challenge for a title again next fall.
2. Ohio State
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Who would have imagined this for Ohio State? Following an early September home loss to Virginia Tech, most reasonable observers counted the Buckeyes out of the College Football Playoff, especially with a struggling freshman quarterback in J.T. Barrett at the helm. But Barrett found his groove and Ohio State hasn’t lost since, making the College Football Playoff National Championship against Oregon.
Bill Rabinowitz of the Columbus Dispatch says the Buckeyes are brimming with confidence, as center Jacoby Boren noted.
"I think we’re really confident," Boren said. "When you’re at this stage, you have to have a chip on your shoulder. It’s us and Oregon and that’s it. We have a lot of confidence and I’m sure Oregon does, too.”
Barrett threw for 2,834 yards with 34 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and rushed for 938 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground before suffering a season-ending broken ankle against Michigan. Into the breach stepped third-stringer Cardale Jones, who led a Big Ten title rout of Wisconsin and the Sugar Bowl rout of Alabama. And don’t forget tailback Ezekiel Elliott, who rushed for 1,632 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.
The Buckeyes defense is also sharp, led by unanimous All-America defensive end Joey Bosa, a holy terror coming off the edge for opposing left tackles. It has been an amazing season for Ohio State, but it will meet its match Monday in the Ducks.
1. Oregon
25 of 25Oregon has been on the cusp of national glory before. The Ducks came oh so close in 2011, falling 22-19 to Auburn in the BCS National Championship, losing on Wes Byrum’s final-play field goal. This season feels like the program’s opportunity to break through once and for all. It's an impressive place to be, given that, as SB Nation's Jason Kirk points out, the program was built from nothing.
The Ducks are 13-1, with their only loss coming at Arizona’s hands in early October (a defeat they avenged 51-13 in the Pac-12 title game). They have the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense, averaging 47.2 points per game, which is keyed by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. Mariota has 40 touchdowns against two interceptions this season and has thrown for 4,121 yards, adding 731 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns as an excellent mobile presence.
Meanwhile, Oregon also averages 241.9 rushing yards per game, ranking No. 18 nationally, led by freshman star Royce Freeman (1,343 yards, 18 touchdowns). The Ducks are experienced, battle-tested and ready for their moment in the spotlight. Ohio State provides a stiff challenge, but Oregon should rise above, keyed by Mariota’s leadership and poise, and claim the first College Football Playoff National Championship.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
