Ravens vs. Patriots: Complete Divisional Game Preview for New England

If the New England Patriots earn that elusive fourth Lombardi Trophy, it's apparent that the road to the Super Bowl will be thorny.  Facing the Baltimore Ravens is likely the worst-case scenario the Pats could have imagined from an opening opponent, as the Ravens are the only team to steal two playoff games at Foxborough during the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.

However, this is not 2009 or 2012, and the teams are vastly different.  Truthfully, in terms of talent level, this bears a closer resemblance to the 2013 meeting, when the Patriots delivered a 41-7 beatdown at M&T Bank Stadium.  That's not to suggest that Saturday's meeting will be as lopsided, but New England does hold a decisive all-around edge.

Barring something unusual, such as another officiating gaffe, the Patriots will almost certainly win if they bring their A-game.  Anything short of that, though, provides an opening for a Ravens squad whose strengths match up with some of New England's biggest weaknesses.

Read on for analysis of the key matchups and players as the Patriots begin their championship-or-bust postseason campaign.

How They Got Here

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

The Patriots earned a first-round bye after winning 10 of their final 12 regular-season games.  From Week 5 onward, New England's plus-165 point differential was the best in the league, per Pro-Football-Reference.  Quite simply, the Pats morphed into the type of complete squad many projected for them in the preseason.

Right now, the Patriots' biggest strength is their ability to control the deep half and perimeter on both offense and defense. 

New England's secondary has not necessarily posted shutdown statistics, but the versatile personnel has allowed it to contain some of the league's most diverse attacks (Denver, Indianapolis, etc.). Similarly, a vintage Rob Gronkowski season has added an important vertical stretch to the passing game, allowing the Pats to keep opposing defenses off balance with the running game and play action.

However, the trenches became a problem for the Pats at times down the stretch. 

The issue shouldn't be overstated too much—from Week 14 on, New England recorded 12 sacks while conceding just nine, four of which came in the backup-laden Week 17 finale.  Still, the Jets and Chargers frequently stymied the Pats offense simply by winning one-on-one matchups along the line, a simple yet deadly formula that is essentially foolproof against any offense.

The Ravens have the capability to execute that game plan, as we'll discuss more in depth later.  The Patriots went 3-1 over the final month, so any significant concern has generally been muted, especially from the national media.  Still, some familiar symptoms of playoff losses past cropped up, and the postseason won't offer the same margin for error.

News and Notes

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Pats D Prepping for Deep Ball

Joe Flacco's arm strength has been his most distinguishing quality since entering the league in 2008, a fact not lost on the Patriots defense.  As ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss relays, safety Devin McCourty has admitted an emphasis this week in playing with proper depth and avoiding pass interference:

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With all the shots they throw, you don't just have the opportunity for them to catch it, but I think they know if it's a one-on-one situation that [the receiver is] going to come up with a catch or a pass interference. We've just got to do a good job of being on guys and then playing the ball.

"

In truth, the deep ball isn't as big a part of the Ravens offense under first-year coordinator Gary Kubiak.  According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), just 10.1 percent of Joe Flacco's passes have traveled 20 or more yards in the air, which ranks 22nd out of 25 qualified quarterbacks.  That mark represented easily the lowest of Flacco's career.

However, the decreased volume resulted in increased efficacy, as his 50.0 deep-ball accuracy percentage ranked fifth in the league.  Last season, Flacco threw deep on 14.3 percent of his attempts, but his 26.1 percent accuracy rate ranked dead last. 

Thus, when Flacco does go deep on some of Kubiak's pet concepts (bootlegs, posts, etc.), McCourty and the rest of the defensive backs will need to play with eye discipline to stay over the top of receivers.

Jones Getting Up to Speed

Chandler Jones wasn't able to take a significant step forward in his third campaign after missing six games with a hip injury.  Though Jones started in each of the final three games, he admits to needing more reps to shake off the rust, per the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe:

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Every single chance that I have the opportunity to be out here with my teammates again — because I missed a lot of weeks, how many weeks did I miss? I was out for two months. I’m still behind. I’m trying to get back up to the same pace as my team. I’m trying to be even better because I missed reps. I missed games. … I feel like I have a lot more developing to do even though you can call me a veteran or at the end of my third season. Missing those games, there are some reps out there that I haven’t seen. I have to catch up to those reps.

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Jones did get plenty of work after returning in Week 15, playing 160 out of 204 snaps (78.4 percent), posting a plus-3.6 overall grade.  In 93 pass-rushing snaps, Jones compiled nine total pressures, which ranked 13th among 3-4 outside linebackers in that span.

New England has had issues generating a consistent four-man rush all season, and Jones' absence has loomed large in that struggle. 

The third-year edge-rusher isn't a cure-all panacea, especially given his health issues.  But between Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Akeem Ayers, the Pats actually have depth at the edge for the first time in years, opening up the potential for a more liberal rotation that could keep the big guns fresh.

Belichick Embraces Elements

According to Weather.com, the Saturday high at Foxborough will be 22 degrees, with nighttime temperatures dipping to around 12 degrees.  Given the 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff, one can expect fairly frigid weather to play a role in the game, even if wind and precipitation aren't expected to play a factor.

Of course, that's always been an advantage for the Patriots, who possess an .829 winning percentage in games played at freezing temperatures since 2001, the best mark in the league in that span according to Pro-Football-Reference.  As The Boston Globe's Michael Whitmer relays, Bill Belichick has been purposeful in practicing outside to prepare his team for the cold:

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We’ve practiced in everything this year: Hot, cold, windy, still, day, night, rain. Whatever it is, it is. We’re seeing it in games, we’re seeing it in practice. Nothing we can do about it, just need to execute in whatever conditions we’re playing in. … We’re playing outside, we’re practicing outside.

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Without any other confounding elements, such as wind or snow, the cold shouldn't really affect the game's complexion.  We'll see if the kicking game suffers at all, as both the Patriots and Ravens possess exemplary kickers and punters.

Injury Report

USA TODAY Sports

Player	Position	Injury Status
Julian Edelman	WR	Probable
Jonas Gray	RB	Probable
Brandon LaFell	WR	Probable
Tom Brady	QB	Probable

This is the shortest injury report the Patriots have released all season, and it illustrates how the bye week has essentially reset this roster to 100 percent health.  Talking heads often mindlessly overhype late-season "momentum" as a determining factor of postseason success, but in reality, this kind of sterling health is significantly more valuable.

LeGarrette Blount was listed on the Wednesday rendition of this report but removed on Thursday.  Gray and Edelman both missed the Week 17 finale with ankle and concussion issues, respectively, though neither seems like a question mark to suit up on Saturday.  LaFell has already explicitly dissuaded any notions that he'll be limited himself.

It's encouraging to see the likes of Dan Connolly and Dont'a Hightower, who have been listed on the injury report all year, removed completely as the postseason begins.  Likewise, Nate Solder didn't make it onto the report after suffering a knee injury in the regular-season finale.  This is the closest New England has been to full strength in months, and it couldn't have arrived at a more opportune time.

*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.

X-Factors and Matchups to Watch

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Interior O-Line vs. Pernell McPhee

By the litany of pieces devoted to Baltimore's pass rush this week, it's no secret that New England's ability to protect Tom Brady will be the game's biggest factor.  Elvis Dumervil comes with the gaudy 17.0 sack total, and Terrell Suggs is the three-down emotional leader of the Ravens defense, so tackles Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer will have their hands full in those critical matchups.

However, on a per-snap basis, McPhee has been Baltimore's best pass-rusher this season.  The fourth-year linebacker ranked second at his position in pass-rushing productivity, with 64 pressures in just 347 pass-rushing snaps.  Only Justin Houston and Ryan Kerrigan exceeded McPhee's pressure total, and both rushed the passer roughly 100 more times.

McPhee is an outside linebacker in name only, though, as he'll often line up as a 3-technique interior rusher between Suggs and Dumervil.  Additionally, the Ravens run plenty of stunt concepts where McPhee ends up attacking through an interior gap.  Thus, while no individual interior lineman will handle McPhee every snap, the trio of Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork and Ryan Wendell should all see him fairly regularly.

The guards Connolly and Wendell finished with a combined minus-29.7 pass-protection grade, as the former graded out as the worst pass-blocking guard in the league.  Stork was better at minus-0.6, but needless to say, this looms as Baltimore's biggest advantage.  Interior pressure has always been Brady's kryptonite, so McPhee represents a potential game-wrecker in this sense.

Darrelle Revis vs. Steve Smith

There's been a healthy respect this week between two of the game's most seasoned veterans, but every matchup against Steve Smith is a dogfight.  Though he tailed off in the second half of the season, Smith still dominated the Ravens' receiving leaderboard, pacing the squad in targets, receptions and receiving yards.

If the Pats plan on playing heavy doses of man-to-man, it makes more sense to pair Revis rather than Brandon Browner against Smith (more on that in a second).  Smith wins with a diverse route tree and the toughness to make contested catches, but Revis' impeccable technique will shrink the already small throwing windows available for Baltimore's 35-year-old leading receiver.

Stylistically, Keenan Allen and Reggie Wayne are probably the most similar Smith comps that Revis has faced this season.  When facing Revis, Allen and Wayne combined to catch just three of seven targets for a grand total of seven (!) receiving yards.  Calling this an auspicious sign would be a massive understatement.

Still, Smith may statistically be the greatest postseason receiver of all time, and he'll likely be a featured part of the Ravens' offensive game plan, even if Revis shadows him.  If No. 24 can deliver another stellar showing, he'll pinch off the chain-moving lifeblood of Baltimore's passing game.

Vince Wilfork and Sealver Siliga vs. Marshal Yanda

With left tackle Eugene Monroe likely to return after missing the past two games, Yanda can move from an emergency tackle role back to his more natural right guard spot.  That's a troubling development for the Patriots—not only was Yanda PFF's highest-graded guard during the regular season, but he was one of the league's best players regardless of position this year.

Yanda's athleticism, awareness and irreproachable technique make him a perfect fit for Kubiak's zone-blocking run game. Given New England's strength in the secondary, it's not a stretch to say that the Ravens must generate a consistent running game if they hope to enjoy any sustainable offensive rhythm. 

Yanda is obviously not the only component of that goal—fellow guard Kelechi Osemele can be terror as well—but he'll be the Patriots' toughest test in the trenches.

Thus, it is critical that Vince Wilfork, Sealver Siliga and the rest of the two-gappers can battle Baltimore's exemplary interior O-line to at least a draw.  The Patriots have allowed just 3.2 yards per attempt the second half of the season, the second-best mark in the league, and the increased depth along the interior (Siliga's return, Alan Branch's signing, etc.) has played a critical factor in that success.

Still, based on Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards metric, the Ravens possess the best O-line the Patriots have faced all season.  Stifling Justin Forsett could paralyze Baltimore's entire operation, so the tackles must avoid getting sealed off to create cutback lanes for the Ravens' shifty running back.

X-Factor: Brandon Browner

As alluded to earlier, having Revis shadow Steve Smith makes plenty of sense from a Pats perspective.  Unfortunately, there's no natural fit for No. 2 corner Brandon Browner, as the Ravens don't possess a prototypical big split end who needs to win the release off the line, the type of receiver Browner thrives against.

Putting Browner on Torrey Smith seems like a disaster in waiting.  Despite playing just nine games, Browner ranked second among corners with 15 penalties this season.  Meanwhile, ESPN's Jamison Hensley pointed out this week that Smith has drawn pass interference penalties at a historic rate, with a league-high 12 calls for a whopping 261 yards (21.7 per call).  It's hard to conceive of a worse possible matchup for Browner.

Some, such as Grantland's Bill Barnwell, have thus speculated that tight end Owen Daniels would be the best matchup for Browner. 

But Daniels is a pure in-line "Y" tight end who generally remains tethered to the formation.  The tight ends Browner has guarded this season, such as Julius Thomas and Martellus Bennett, have frequently split out from the core of the formation and lined up out wide, where he is much more comfortable.

That's not to suggest that Browner cannot play inside—against Denver, for instance, he was sometimes a hybrid linebacker in sub-packages.  But he's yet to play that kind of role for any sustained stretch, which puts him in a precarious spot in terms of game-planning.  Browner's a superior option to New England's reserve corners, so he'll play, but it will be extremely intriguing to see how Bill Belichick utilizes him.

Prediction

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It seems as though the Patriots have many more potential avenues toward victory than the Ravens.  It's hard to envision Baltimore winning without a highly consistent and impressive pass rush.  Perhaps Flacco pulls another playoff gem, but the Ravens don't possess the type of deep and versatile receiving corps that has given the Patriots defense trouble this season.

The Patriots offensive line is at an obvious disadvantage against the Suggs-Dumervil-McPhee troika, but they also hold a much greater margin for error than the Baltimore front seven.  As talented as Will Hill may be, the Ravens don't have a conceivable answer for Rob Gronkowski; even a single pressureless drive could end up in the end zone given Baltimore's weakness in the secondary.

The one confounding variable could be in the red zone, where the Ravens possess the second-best defense.  New England scored touchdowns on just 37.5 percent of its red-zone possessions over the final month, per PFR, a mark that would have ranked 31st in the league over the course of a full season.  It's critical that the Patriots convert at a more efficient rate, or the Ravens will hang around no matter what.

Still, it's difficult to imagine Baltimore winning the possession battle given New England's improvements on the ground, which could eventually wear out the Ravens defense.  A team with the Patriots' balance on both sides of the ball will eventually break through if it can dictate the game, a pattern one would expect to unfold on Saturday night.

Prediction: Patriots 29, Ravens 18

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).