NFL Playoff Predictions 2015: B/R's Divisional Round Projections

Now things get really interesting.

On Saturday, the divisional round of the 2015 NFL playoffs gets underway, which can mean only one thing—time for the big dogs to eat.

Of course, that isn't to say that Goliath has a clear path to the conference championships. The New England Patriots face a Baltimore Ravens squad that has relished the role of David in the playoffs in recent years. The Green Bay Packers square off with a Dallas Cowboys team that has yet to lose on the road this season.

It should make for a riveting weekend of NFL action, and here's a look at how the Division Lead and National Lead Writers at Bleacher Report expect the divisional round to play out.

Upset of the Week

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Winner: None (7 votes)

Here we go again.

For the second straight week in the 2015 postseason, the leading vote-getter for Upset of the Week was "none of the above."

Mind you, this isn't to say that our writers are unanimous in their belief that the favorites will carry all four games.

In fact, three of the weekend's four contests received multiple "upset alert" nods. For AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz, it was the aforementioned Cowboys' potential to rise up in Titletown against the Packers:

"

Aaron Rodgers is an elite quarterback, and that's a huge component to playoff success, but the Packers will be in trouble unless Rodgers can somehow take his talents as a passer and translate them to the defensive side of the ball and help the Packers stop the run. The Packers allowed more than 100 rushing yards in 12 of their 16 games this season, so look for a huge game from DeMarco Murray to be a deciding factor in the outcome.

"

The only game of Wild Card Weekend that didn't receive at least one vote from our experts? The Indianapolis Colts' trip to Denver to face the Broncos.

In other words, that's the game we should probably really keep an eye on.

Others receiving votes: Dallas Cowboys (+6) over Green Bay Packers (4 votes), Carolina Panthers (+10.5) over Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) over New England Patriots (2 votes)

Point spreads courtesy of Odds Shark.

Blowout of the Week

Chris Keane/Associated Press

Winner: Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers (8 votes)

There were a few writers who carried "none of the above" right over into this week's blowout picks. Among them was NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier:

"

'Blowout' can be a tricky term. I can see the Broncos controlling the game against the Colts from coin flip to gun, but the Colts really excel at hanging around the rearview mirror and making the final score look close. The Patriots could also handle the Ravens pretty easily—I think a lot of people are seeing ghosts of 2012 in this game, but the Patriots don't chase ghosts—yet the Ravens' ability to turn every game into a hog-slopping can result in a convincing 26-17 win, instead of a blowout. Cowboys-Packers is a close call, and Panthers-Seahawks will be an honorary NFC West game with a 17-9 final. We needed the Panthers to face a high-powered offense or the Cardinals to advance to get an NFC blowout. In the AFC, we needed the poor Bengals.

"

However, one game was the clear pick of the panel.

On many levels, it's a curious choice. The Seattle Seahawks have traveled to Charlotte to face the Carolina Panthers each of the past three seasons. Seattle won all three games, but each was a closely contested affair where the margin of victory was in the single digits.

In fact, as Larry Stone of The Seattle Times reported, many believe that privately this is exactly the matchup the Panthers were hoping for:

"

With top-notch linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, the Panthers have the capability to limit (Russell) Wilson’s scrambles. They’ve also held Marshawn Lynch more or less in check, limiting him to a 63-yard average in those three games.

The result has been a series of fierce defensive slogs in which the final score looks like a Coors Field baseball result — 13-9, 12-7, 16-12. Those are the kind of games that should make Seahawks fans a little nervous: One untimely turnover or defensive breakdown, and those narrow Seattle victories could have gone the other way.

And the Panthers know it. There’s a school of thought that they privately preferred a Seahawks matchup to having to play at Green Bay, where Carolina fell behind 38-3 before losing 38-17 in October.

"

Well, you know what they say.

Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.

Others receiving votes: None (3 votes), Denver Broncos over Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys (2 votes)

Biggest Mismatch

Chris Keane/Associated Press

Winner: Seattle Seahawks defense vs. Carolina Panthers offense (9 votes)

If NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter is correct in his prediction, then the biggest mismatch of the divisional round can be found in the weekend's first game:

"

Even after Baltimore’s front seven made mincemeat of Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, it seems no one’s giving them a chance against Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Patriots offensive line finished 29th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-block grades this season, and the Ravens finished tied for No. 2 in sacks. I still like the Patriots to win the game, but don’t discount the heat the Ravens will bring to bear on Brady.

"

Schalter's points (as they usually are) are valid, but most of our panelists cast their eyes a bit farther north, to the Emerald City and the Seahawks' vaunted "Legion of Boom" defense.

As Jonathan Jones of The Charlotte Observer reported, that defense presents a very stiff test for Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers offense:

"

For the second consecutive year, the Seahawks finished with the top defense in the NFL. Opponents passed for just 185.6 yards per game while rushing for 81.5 yards.

The defense has played even better in the last third of the season. Since the Seahawks lost 24-20 to Kansas City in Week 11, they’ve allowed only one team (Philadelphia) to score more than seven points.

Teams have scored 3, 3, 14, 7, 6 and 6 points in the past six games against the Seahawks. In those games, Seattle has allowed 202 yards per game.

"

To use a technical term, yikes.

Others receiving votes: Aaron Rodgers vs. Dallas Cowboys defense (3 votes), Baltimore Ravens pass rush vs. New England Patriots offensive line (1 vote), DeMarco Murray vs. Green Bay Packers defense (1 vote), Dallas Cowboys vs. Lambeau Field (1 vote)

Top QB Performance

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (10 votes)

Given that the NFC North is the purview of Lead Writer Zach Kruse, one might think that Kruse's vote for this week's top signal-caller would hail from Sunday's big showdown at Lambeau Field.

One would be wrong:

"

Aaron Rodgers is the obvious pick here, but why not Joe Flacco? He's currently riding a five-game playoff winning streak with 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions. To be perfectly honest, Flacco hasn't played a poor postseason game since 2011, a stretch of seven games. And over his last two playoff trips to New England (2012, '13), Flacco has 546 yards and five touchdowns. Time to start giving some January trust to Joe Cool.

"

That may well be, but it was Rodgers who was the runaway choice of our voters.

Rodgers has been ridiculously effective at home this year, averaging over 290 passing yards a game with 25 touchdown passes.

And zero interceptions—nada, zip, the big goose egg.

Granted, the MVP front-runner is nursing a calf injury, but Rodgers told ESPN Radio (via Rob Demovsky) that he isn't concerned about his sore wheel.

"It feels better," Rodgers said. "We'll see what happens this week as far as practice reps. Everybody's so concerned about them. I'm not, and thankfully my teammates aren't either."

You can add our writers to that list of folks who aren't concerned.

Just R-E-L-A-X.

Others receiving votes: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (3 votes), Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (1 vote), Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote)

Top RB Performance

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Winner: C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (7 votes)

When the Denver Broncos offense comes up in conversation regarding this year's postseason field, the first player mentioned is almost always Peyton Manning.

Thanks for getting the Nationwide jingle stuck in my head forever—you jerk.

However, the Broncos' hopes of reaching a second straight Super Bowl may well rest on the young player who has been carrying the offense of late.

As Rich Kurtzman of CBS Boston reports, this week's matchup between the Broncos and Colts could come down to which under-the-radar running back has the better game:

"

(C.J.) Anderson started the year as a change of pace back, used sparingly to give a rest to starter Montee Ball. Then Ball was injured, and so was his backup, Ronnie Hillman, giving Anderson his chance to shine. From Week 10 forward, Anderson gained the great bulk of his 849 yards and all eight rushing touchdowns, simultaneously becoming a vital piece to the Denver offensive attack. His lack of hesitation and burst through the line of scrimmage gives him and the Broncos’ offensive line an advantage, because hitting the hole so quickly leaves the defense unable to react quickly enough to stop him.

"

Against an Indy defense that ranked 18th in the NFL against the run in 2014, the panel's money is on Anderson outdueling the Colts' Dan Herron—and every other running back playing in the divisional round.

Others receiving votes: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (4 votes), Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (4 votes)

Top WR Performance

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Winner: Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos (5 votes)

The divisional round contains a who's who of the NFL's elite players at the wide receiver position: Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys, T.Y. Hilton of the Indianapolis Colts, Jordy Nelson of the Green Bay Packers, Demaryius Thomas of the Denver Broncos.

For AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst, it's Bryant who's set for the biggest day of the week in Green Bay:

"

There are a number of home run-hitting wide receivers featured in the divisional round of the playoffs this week. Nearly every team featured has at least one receiver that could put up the best performance. However, none will compare to Dallas Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant. Bryant has a favorable matchup against the Green Bay Packers secondary, has his quarterback's undivided attention (as compared to the many receiving options the Packers and Denver Broncos boast) and knows how to carry a game on his back when the opportunity arises.

That opportunity should present itself on Sunday. The Packers-Cowboys matchup has all the hallmarks of a shootout brewing. Though both teams have good running games, passing is the hallmark of both offenses. Defense, on the other hand, is not. Look for Bryant to lead all playoff receivers in yards and touchdowns this weekend.

"

However, the leading vote-getter was a player who didn't start the season as a star.

Emmanuel Sanders of the Broncos surely became one this season, though. In his first season in Denver, Sanders shattered his career highs across the board, reeling in 101 passes for over 1,400 yards and nine touchdowns.

It was a performance that drew kudos from offensive coordinator Adam Gase, according to Ben Swanson of the Broncos' website:

"

There’s no lack of effort in anything he does. Everything is game speed, from the beginning of practice to the end of practice, and that’s always been since we got him. For a guy who’s not DT’s size, he takes some big shots and he bounces right back up. The guy’s got a toughness and a willingness about him that you don’t see in every player.

"

Of course, it doesn't hurt when Peyton Manning is the guy chucking passes in your direction.

"Hmm Hmm Wide is on your..."

DANGIT!

Others receiving votes: Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (4 votes), Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (3 votes), T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Top TE Performance

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Winner: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (13 votes)

Of all this week's predictions, the vote for top performance by a tight end was the biggest runaway.

That isn't hard to understand. After all, Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots has been running away from defenders all season long.

And around them. And occasionally through them.

Just one year after tearing an ACL, Gronkowski was back in All-Pro form in 2014, hauling in 82 passes for 1,124 yards and a dozen scores.

Still, for all that regular-season success, Gronkowski allowed to Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald that the Pats can't take anything for granted this week when they host the Baltimore Ravens:

"

They're a very physical team. They're front line, they're big, and very physical. You just can't go out there and be soft. They've got very good players. They're always physically and mentally ready. It's going to be a challenge. It's going to be tough, no doubt. We've got to go out and execute and be prepared.

"

Gronkowski may be many things—soft is hardly one of them.

Others receiving votes: Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (1 vote)

Top Defensive Performance

Chris Keane/Associated Press

Winner: Richard Sherman, CB, Seattle Seahawks (3 votes)

The vote for this week's top tight end was a landslide, but the same definitely did not hold true on the other side of the ball. Nine different defensive players received at least one vote, running the gamut from defensive ends to safeties.

If there was something of a trend, it's that three of those players (and seven of the overall votes) went to members of the NFL's top defense.

NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson went with the Legion of Boom's most outspoken member:

"

The only faint, passing hope the Carolina Panthers have in this game is winning a battle between two hulking humans when Kelvin Benjamin spends much of his evening across from Richard Sherman. Over Seattle's last seven games Sherman has allowed only 14 receptions, 111 yards and he's picked off three passes. He's pretty good.

"

However, as Chris Strauss of USA Today reported, Benjamin actually had a pretty good game when these teams met earlier this season:

"

The 6’5″ rookie receiver had four catches for 94 yards versus Seattle earlier this season, but didn’t have much impact against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals secondary in the Wild Card game. Part of that was due to a few erratic throws by Cam Newton, but the Panthers will need to be more impactful on offense without the benefit of Ryan Lindley leading the other team this week. Look for Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas to try and get physical with Benjamin early and often.

"

Three writers expect Sherman to do just that, enough for the All-Pro to carry the day in this spread-out vote.

Others receiving votes: Earl Thomas, FS, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos (2 votes), Luke Kuechly, MLB, Carolina Panthers (2 votes), Darrelle Revis, CB, New England Patriots (1 vote), Charles Johnson, DE, Carolina Panthers (1 vote), Terrell Suggs, OLB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), Dont'a Hightower, ILB, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Sleeper of the Week

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Winner: Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts (3 votes)

So far, this article has dealt mostly with the best of the best across the National Football League. We've discussed superstars on both sides of the ball, from Aaron Rodgers to Richard Sherman.

Still, as Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Terrance Williams showed in last week's Wild Card Round win, sometimes it's a lesser-known player who makes all the difference in the postseason.

Our voters came up with a number of candidates who could be set for big things in the divisional round. Eight, in fact.

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown looked to the Mile High City and Denver tight end Julius Thomas:

"

While Jerrell Freeman had an amazing game on Sunday, that has not been the typical order of things for the 2014 Colts. D'Qwell Jackson has also struggled to cover tight ends. (Or, well, anybody.) The Colts pass defense finished 27th in DVOA allowed to tight ends, giving up an average of 7.3 catches for 58.2 yards. The bet here is that the rest and recovery have rejuvenated Julius Thomas. The first time these teams met this season, in Week 1, Thomas caught seven passes for 104 yards and three touchdowns. As long as Thomas is healthy, he should be in shouting distance of those numbers again.

"

However, the leading vote-getter was Indianapolis Colts wideout Donte Moncrief. Injuries in the Colts' pass-catching corps thrust Moncrief into a larger role in 2014, and the rookie stepped up in a big way with 32 catches for 444 yards and three scores.

Moncrief was on the receiving end of a 36-yard scoring strike from Andrew Luck in last week's win over the Cincinnati Bengals, but the youngster told Stephen Holder of The Indianapolis Star that he still has loads to learn:

"

"Learning defenses, learning how to release (off the line of scrimmage), how to be patient," Moncrief cites some of the lessons he's had to learn. "I just sit back and watch T.Y. (Hilton), Reggie (Wayne) and Hakeem (Nicks) and how they play without the ball in their hands. That's the part that's amazing. When you're good even when the ball's not in your hands, you're really doing something."

"

Our experts expect Moncrief will do something against Denver—perhaps even help propel the Colts to an upset that would only add to Peyton Manning's postseason legacy (or lack thereof).

Chew on that along with your chicken parm, you humming son of a this-and-that.

Others receiving votes: Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers (2 votes), Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (2 votes), Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (2 votes), Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys (2 votes), Paul Richardson, WR, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Brandon Marshall, OLB, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Jonas Gray, RB, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Flop of the Week

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

"Winner": Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (5 votes)

Of course, there's a flip side to a player coming from nowhere to have a huge game. Nothing will put the kibosh on a playoff run faster than a star player falling flat on the big stage.

Unfortunately, that's exactly what AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown believes will happen to Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, even if much of those struggles aren't exactly Newton's fault:

"

What the Seattle defense has done over the second half of the season is utterly ridiculous. This isn't a pick so much to slam Newton as it is to admit reality. Newton was grimacing in pain throughout the Arizona game. Here, in Seattle, against the best defense in the league? It's got a chance to get ugly.

"

Newton didn't win the vote no one wants to win, however.

No, that was a player who (rightly or not) has developed quite the reputation for folding like a cheap card table in the playoffs.

Yes, Peyton Manning got the Broncos all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but Denver's blowout loss to the Seahawks dropped Manning's career playoff record to 11-12. That from a player with a .700 winning percentage in the regular season.

Also, as Mike Foss of USA Today relayed, Manning's play slid a bit late in the season, which also plays into the 38-year-old's career narrative:

"

Does this sound familiar? After an excellent regular season, Peyton Manning is starting to decline just in time for the playoffs. It’s a trend that has rung true for most of his 16 seasons.

The argument is whether Manning and the Broncos in their current form can get the job done in the postseason. All things considered – struggles in the red zone, an injured (Julius) Thomas, troubles on the road, combined with an interception-prone Manning makes for an uphill battle heading into the postseason.

"

Should Foss' warnings and our panel's vote prove true, and were the Broncos to be a one-and-done playoff team for the second time in Manning's three years in Denver...

Let's just say it won't be hard to figure out the opening topic that Skip Blowhard and Stephen A. Bigmouth will be talking over one another about come Monday.

"Losing feeling in my toes."

Serves him right.

Others receiving votes: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (4 votes), Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (1 vote), Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote)