Projecting the Chicago White Sox's 5-Man Rotation for 2015

Following the addition of Jeff Samardzija, the Chicago White Sox have a rotation set for 2015 that should be markedly improved over the one that finished the 2014 campaign.

Not that improving is all that difficult. After all, the unit went 50-57 last year with a 4.26 ERA and 1.356 WHIP. That's just not going to get the job done—ever.

With the disastrous results from last season in the rearview mirror, here are the predictions. In order, the 2015 rotation will shake out thusly: Chris Sale, LHP; Samardzija, RHP; Jose Quintana, LHP; Hector Noesi, RHP; John Danks, LHP.

If that seems a bit dull, it's because it is. Frankly, there isn't much in the way of unknowns at this point.

M. Spencer Green/Associated Press

Sale is one of the three best pitchers in the American League based upon Cy Young Award voting and will get the ball on Opening Day. Samardzija is the dominant right-hander the White Sox have been missing for some time and gets the nod as the No. 2 starter to provide some separation between Sale and Quintana, who are both left-handed. 

Just about the only thing there that should strike anyone as out of the ordinary is the slotting of Danks and Noesi. We have Danks going into the season as the fifth starter because, well, other than being a southpaw, he brings very little to the table in the way of production.

Not that Noesi is considerably better, of course, but it makes sense to split Danks and Quintana up with a right-hander. The idea is that the balance the rotation has will be of benefit in the long run even if Danks' or Noesi's results are less than desirable.

Now, before we get into a few things that could impact out predictions, here are Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections, courtesy of FanGraphs' Carson Cistulli, for the starting rotation as we have it laid out:

	ERA	FIP	ERA+	K/9	BB/9	IP	zWAR
Chris Sale	2.89	3.20	142	9.92	2.09	189.7	5.8
Jeff Samardzija	3.90	3.80	105	9.14	2.41	194.0	3.4
Jose Quintana	3.88	3.79	106	7.15	2.56	190.0	3.4
Hector Noesi	5.84	5.69	70	6.10	3.37	133.7	-1.2
John Danks	5.45	5.58	75	5.65	3.43	138.7	-0.4

For those unfamiliar, ERA+ is a pitcher's ERA compared to the league average where each point above 100 is one percentage point. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a predictive metric independent of defense, measuring those things a pitcher can control like walks, strikeouts and home runs. Finally, zWAR is the ZIPS projection for wins above replacement, and K/9 and BB/9 are the number of strikeouts and walks each pitcher is predicted to have every nine innings.

It bears mentioning that ZiPS projections are quite conservative. It is entirely realistic to assume that Sale, Samardzija and Quintana will exceed the algorithm's projection. Conversely, it is also possible that Noesi and Danks fail to live up to the rather woeful numbers that are forecasted.

Regardless, the current composition of the rotation could "be enough to push" the club into the playoffs next year, per Mike Axisa from CBS Sports. And that is a feeling White Sox fans have waited years for.

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Wild Cards

With the projected rotation established, there are three wild cards to consider.

First, will Carlos Rodon make the rotation out of spring training?

To be sure, there is a chance that the left-hander does enough to warrant making the Opening Day roster, but general manager Rick Hahn isn't averse to sending him to Triple-A Charlotte.

"It's possible," Hahn said, that "he's just in the minors making starts and comes up once he's truly ready," via Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (subscription required).

If Rodon does break camp with the club, however, one option manager Robin Ventura has is to send Danks to the bullpen. As Sullivan noted, the move would be akin to what the Chicago Cubs did with Kerry Wood toward the end of his career. Now, Danks isn't the thrower that Woods was, but Sullivan's point has merit, especially if we consider his ability to be the long man.

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

The second thing still up in the air is whether or not Hahn is done making additions.

There is no doubt that an upgrade from Noesi is possible. For all his upside, he's never finished with a FIP below 4.09 or a WHIP south of 1.369. And while he logged seven quality starts over his final 10 outings in 2014, we can't assume that's enough for Hahn to stand pat.

Finally, Erik Johnson cannot be overlooked.

Prior to last season, he'd found success in the minor leagues, posting a 1.57 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 57.1 innings at Triple-A in 2013, yet struggled in the majors. Sure, he put up a 3.25 ERA over five starts two years ago, but his 5.40 FIP and 1.554 WHIP told a different story. All told, however, there was reason for optimism.

Then the 2014 season began. As Steve Peters from SB Nation's South Side Sox noted, Johnson experienced a dramatic drop in velocity, changed his pitch selection to the point that he became a two-pitch hurler and eventually landed on the disabled list.

It marked an ignominious end to what seemed a promising beginning. For as poorly as 2014 went, however, it is not outside the realm of reason that Johnson can pitch well enough in spring training to unseat Noesi from his spot.

Either way, the back end of the rotation is a worry. So worrisome, in fact, that it's composition will likely not be finalized until just before Opening Day.

That said, things are certainly brighter on the South Side than they were a year ago. And it will be the front of the rotation leading the charge to what the franchise hopes will be an American League Central title.

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com. 

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