New York Jets Free Agents: What Will It Take to Keep Key Jets?
Without a doubt, the New York Jets will undergo a ton of roster turnover in the coming months with a new regime coming in, but there are still valuable pending free agents on the roster the Jets will at least want to try and keep around.
NFL free-agent markets can vary from season to season in terms of positional values, but we can at least generate an educated guess as to what a player is worth by analyzing the fortunes of similar players who were recently in the open market.
Performance is far from the only indicator of how much a player will make. Age, injury history, position and trajectory of production are all vital in determining how much a player is worth. Whatever scheme a new coaching staff will bring in will determine the future of many Jets as well.
Here are some estimates of the most important Jets free agents in the open market.
David Harris, ILB
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Retaining veterans in their 30s goes against conventional wisdom for most rebuilding teams, but the Jets may want to make an exception for inside linebacker David Harris. A mainstay in the Jets defense for the better part of seven seasons, there is not much depth behind Harris to rely on if he does hit free agency.
Once one of the highest-paid players at his position coming off a contract in which he averaged $6.225 million per season, there is no way a soon-to-be 31-year-old inside linebacker is going to get that caliber of a deal.
However, Harris still has value as a do-it-all linebacker who specializes in diagnosing plays and stopping the run, even if his best days are behind him.
This assumes the Jets retain their 3-4 base defensive alignment from the Rex Ryan era. Otherwise, a base 4-3 coach would not be in such a dire need for an inside linebacker with Demario Davis already on the roster.
Harris can make a case to be paid in the same range as other veteran inside linebackers such as Jon Beason, who made just over $3.1 million last year. He may be able to push closer to $4 million, with someone like Perry Riley of the Washington Redskins making similar money.
Projected contract: Three years, $9.2 million, $3 million guaranteed
Damon Harrison, DT
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Luckily for the Jets, Damon Harrison's former status as an undrafted signee makes him subject to restricted free agent (RFA) designation.
Unlike a typical unrestricted free agent (UFA), the Jets can use a one-year tender on Harrison. He can negotiate with another team but can only sign elsewhere if the other team is willing to give a draft pick compensation in return (specific to the level of tender) and the Jets turn down the chance to match a new offer.
As a result, RFAs are rarely signed to different teams, and the Jets should have no trouble keeping Harrison around for one more season as long as they play it safe with the tender amount.
Assuming the Jets use a first-round tender on one of the best run-stuffing defensive tackles in football, Harrison should expect to make more than $3.1 million next year based on last year's tender amounts.
As long as he continues to produce at a high level and stay healthy, Harrison can expect to make more than double this tender amount as an unrestricted free agent next spring. For now, however, the Jets have an easy, bargain solution to keep their stud defensive tackle around for at least one more season.
Projected contract: One year, $3.25 million (guaranteed tender)
Kenrick Ellis, DT
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While not as dominant as his undrafted counterpart Damon Harrison, former third-round pick Kenrick Ellis has flashed potential when given a chance as well. Had it not been for Harrison's dominant play, Ellis would have been the starting nose tackle.
His status as a backup certainly hurts his value, as any team looking to make him a full-time starter would be making a leap of faith, especially given his injury history. He has played in all 16 games just once in his four-year career.
Still, Ellis offers a lot of upside, given his relative lack of opportunity. The Hampton product offers a bit more than Harrison as a pass-rusher, as Ellis recorded a sack in the final game of the season against the Miami Dolphins.
Figuring an average salary number for Ellis is difficult, as his contract will likely be heavily laced in incentives for injury and performance. While in a different place in his career, he can get a similar "prove it" deal to Jay Ratliff's $2 million from the Chicago Bears in 2015.
Projected contract: 2 years, $3.5 million, $100,000 roster bonus
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Bilal Powell
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The Jets wasted their time and money last season bringing in Chris Johnson to play over Bilal Powell. Not only did they have the same per-carry average (4.3 yards), but Powell was a much more reliable player as a pass-protector and receiver out of the backfield, which made him a superior investment to Johnson over the long term.
Unfortunately for Powell, his diminished role caused by Johnson's presence will hurt his value on the open market. Powell was never viewed as a full-time starter, but some teams may not even view him as a viable No. 2 option.
Also working against him is the plummeting value of running backs. Their limited shelf life leaves room for very few spots at the top of the market, while mid-tier backs like Powell have an even more difficult time finding No. 2 jobs with so many teams electing to use draft picks on younger runners with less wear on their tires.
Powell is well-rounded enough to find a job as a spell back on some roster, but he won't make much more than a couple of million per season. The similarly skilled Rashad Jennings averages just $2.5 million per season for the New York Giants. Powell's quiet 2014 season should place him well below that per-year average.
Projected contract: Two years, $3.9 million, $250,000 signing bonus
Leger Douzable, DE
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With the team having so many defensive stars along the defensive line to pay, retaining backup Leger Douzable would be a luxury.
Working in the shadow of stars like Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson, Douzable was quietly productive in his limited snaps, notching three sacks for the second consecutive season and holding up well in run defense.
Douzable has played well enough to earn a larger role on teams with less freakish depth at defensive line, but the Jets should at least try and retain him at the right price. Coming off a one-year, $850,000 contract, he is likely looking for a lot more security—and may be willing to settle on his per-year average to obtain job security.
Douzable will not be able to make much more than his 2013 salary ($1 million), but he can at least seek out more years and guaranteed money after two solid seasons as the Jets' underrated backup defensive end.
Projected Contract: Three years, $3 million, $500,000 guaranteed
Willie Colon, G
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It may seem like a long shot for the Jets to bring back one of the most penalized guards in football, but the Jets' uncertainty along the offensive line still leaves room for the 31-year-old to return as a stopgap solution.
While he is no longer the bulldozing run-blocker he had grown a reputation for, Colon, a former tackle, is still a tremendous pass-protector. According to Pro Football Focus, he allowed just one sack in 2014.
Colon does carry the burden of a lengthy injury history, but he has yet to miss a game in his two seasons with the Jets.
His age, injury risk and lack of any kind of upside hardly make him an ideal choice to start in 2016 for the green and white, but he should not be ruled out as a fallback option given the lack of depth at the position. Unless Dakota Dozier magically emerges as a top-notch player after being inactive for 15 games, the Jets will rely on Oday Aboushi and Brian Winters to get them through the 2016 season—a recipe for disaster regardless of who plays quarterback.
Colon was playing on a one-year, $2 million deal last season. If the Jets find themselves in a desperate spot, he deserves the same contract to play the same role in 2016.
Projected contract: One year, $2 million, $150,000 signing bonus
Contract information provided by Spotrac.com. Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).
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