X-Factors Heading into the CFB Championship Game
Ohio State and Oregon will square off in the first national championship game of the playoff era in college football.
Unlike previous national title games during the BCS era, there will be no long wait for the title game to unfold. The Buckeyes and Ducks will meet just 11 days after winning their semifinal games against Alabama and Florida State respectively.
That means both teams should be sharp and on top of their games, and neither team will be at a disadvantage as a result of a long layoff.
From a strategic point of view, the Buckeyes will improve their chances of winning if they can sustain their offense and put long drives together. This will not only help their productivity, but it will keep Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota off the field.
Both teams are loaded with overpowering talent, and in this feature we look at the X-factors from both teams who will likely have a huge influence on this title game.
Can the Oregon Run Defense Hold Up?
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The Ohio State strategy should be an obvious one. It heads into this national championship game with its third-string quarterback, Cardale Jones, at the controls.
While he has exceeded expectations in the Big Ten Championship Game vs. Wisconsin and did the same in a much tougher assignment against Alabama, the Buckeyes are a much better team when they are running the ball successfully instead of asking Jones to pass the ball downfield.
Jones is a powerful 255-pound man and is a load when he is running the ball. Ezekiel Elliott is the Buckeyes' primary running back, and he is a game-breaker. He ran for 230 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama's powerful defense. The Buckeyes have full confidence in their ability to run the ball.
Can the Ducks stop them? That's one of the game's primary issues because Oregon was vulnerable to power-running games all season. While it routed Florida State, the Seminoles averaged 4.6 yards per carry in the Rose Bowl.
Much of the pressure to slow down the Ohio State running game will fall on linebackers Derrick Malone (81 tackles) and Joe Morgan (77 tackles). If they can't wrap up Elliott and Jones, the Buckeyes will have an excellent chance to control the ball and dictate the pace of the game.
Will the Ohio State Secondary Keep Mariota from Going Wild?
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Marcus Mariota ran away with the Heisman Trophy after a brilliant season that included a 68.6 completion percentage, a 40-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 731 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer knows that Mariota is going to have his moments and have a huge influence on the game.
However, the Buckeyes secondary can't let Mariota go wild. It has to produce its own big moments and find a way to keep the Ducks from surging without resistance.
The Buckeyes had a couple of huge interceptions in the win over Alabama from free safety Vonn Bell (86 tackles, six interceptions, 12 passes defensed) and linebacker Steve Miller (33 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, one interception). Mariota doesn't throw many interceptions, but the Buckeyes have to force a couple of turnovers and deflect several passes if they are going to keep the Oregon offense from strafing them.
The Buckeyes have been playing with confidence and aggressiveness on defense, and even though they gave up 35 points to Alabama, they did produce big plays. They need to do the same here.
The Buckeyes Passing Game Must Produce
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While the Buckeyes would like to control the clock and run the ball down the Ducks' throats, they are not going to be able to win the game without some semblance of balance.
That means Jones is going to have to throw the ball with some consistency. He completed 18 of 35 passes against Alabama for 243 yards with one touchdown to star receiver Devin Smith (32-886-12), and he will probably have to do even better in the title game.
While Jones has excelled in his two big games against Wisconsin and Alabama, the Ducks would be smart to throw a series of disguised blitzes against him because he simply has not been in the lineup enough to recognize all the defensive sets that Oregon can throw at him.
If the Ducks can force the Buckeyes to operate behind the chains on second- and third-down plays, they can force Jones to try and beat them as a passer. That plays into Oregon's hands and could mean trouble for Ohio State.
If Jones can hit a couple of big passes early in the game, it could bolster his confidence and make the Ducks a bit more cautious on defense.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Which Team Will Be Able to Limit the Big Plays?
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The Oregon Ducks are noted for their ability to strike suddenly. They put that ability on display in their Rose Bowl victory over Florida State in which they scored three times on plays of 30 yards or more.
Midway through the third period, freshman wide receiver Darren Carrington caught a 56-yard TD pass from Mariota, and that quick strike gave the Ducks a 32-20 lead. A little more than two minutes later, that pair hooked up on a 30-yard TD pass to give the Ducks complete control of the game with a 39-20 advantage.
Then, the Oregon defense got into the scoring parade as outside linebacker Tony Washington picked up a fumble and raced 58 yards for a touchdown, and that signaled the route was on for the Ducks.
The Buckeyes also had three long touchdowns against the the Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl. The first came early in the third period, and it gave Ohio State a 27-21 lead as Jones hit Devin Smith with a 47-yard touchdown pass.
Ohio State was able to stretch its lead later in third quarter when linebacker Steve Miller picked off a Blake Sims pass and brought it back 41 yards for a touchdown. The 34-21 lead gave the Buckeyes control of the game and forced the favored Crimson Tide into a scramble mode.
Alabama was able to respond with a TD to get back in the game when Sims scored on a run, but Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott showed there would be no letup from Ohio State when he ripped off an 85-yard touchdown run that shocked Nick Saban and Alabama.
Both teams showed big-play ability in their semifinal games, and the team who can do that most consistently in the title game would appear to have a big edge.
Which Team Can Generate an Edge on Special Teams?
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These two teams are both likely to fight each other hard for 60 minutes or more, and they are both so talented that it could come down to special teams.
Both teams have excellent return specialists, but Oregon punt returner Charles Nelson appears to be dominant. He has returned two punts for touchdowns this season. He is averaging 15.5 yards on 11 punt returns and has the ability to make any tackler miss in a one-on-one situation and then take it the distance.
Ohio State punt returner Jalin Marshall is also dangerous, as he returned one punt for a touchdown and has averaged 12.0 yards on his 21 returns. Marshall may need a little bit more help from his blockers than Nelson does, so that gives Oregon the edge.
Place-kicker Aidan Schneider has made nine of 10 field-goal attempts for the Ducks, while Sean Nuernberger has made 13 of 20 field-goal attempts for Ohio State. Schneider's only miss came from inside 30 yards, while Nuernberger has a problem on longer attempts, as he made just 5-of-10 from 40 yards and beyond.
Ohio State punter Cameron Johnston has a strong and precise leg. He is averaging 45.3 yards with his rugby-style kicks, and he has dropped 24 of 45 punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. He rates a strong edge over Oregon's Ian Johnson, who is averaging 39.0 yards per punt and dropped just 10 of 41 punts inside the 20.
Urban Meyer vs. Mark Helfrich
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Urban Meyer squared off in the Sugar Bowl against Nick Saban, and he coached his team to a major upset over the Crimson Tide. Meyer has already won two national championships from his days at Florida, and he is clearly one of the elite coaches in the college game. Meyer has excelled at preparing his teams in bowl games, and his teams are now 8-2 in postseason games.
Mark Helfrich, now in his second year at the helm of the Ducks, does not have the same kind of credentials as Meyer. However, his team has been prepared to play each week, and the Ducks have registered one-sided victories over opponents coached by David Shaw, Mike Riley, Mark Dantonio and Jim Mora Jr. It's safe to say that the Ducks are not going to be intimidated on the big stage.
Meyer may have the edge in experience, but Helfrich is a savvy play-caller who can spot an opponent's weakness and take advantage of it.
The coach who has the better night is likely to walk home with the national title.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
