College Football Championship 2015: Top Early Storylines for Oregon vs. Ohio St.
In a season where the inaugural College Football Playoff created an entirely different atmosphere, it's only fitting that the semifinal results have overturned the long-established hegemonies from the BCS era. With Oregon and Ohio State, fans will get to see the perennial bridesmaid face off against a powerhouse that has suddenly taken the underdog role.
It seems probable that, if the BCS were still in existence, Alabama and Florida State would have met for the national title, so the playoff has already validated its purpose and worthiness. The championship game will simply serve as the cherry on top, pitting two of the nation's most complete teams that likely would never have gotten their shot in the BCS era.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Though Oregon has opened up as a considerable favorite, the Buckeyes possess the type of front seven talent and rushing game that could stymie the Ducks. Third-stringer Cardale Jones has now come through on two massive stages, seemingly answering whatever questions may still exist at the quarterback position.
The quarterback battle is just one angle to this game, as there are several fascinating subplots. With the semifinals in the rear-view mirror, here are the storylines that have emerged as the most intriguing in the lead-up to Arlington on Jan. 12.
The QB Battle
In terms of recognition, a massive chasm exists between consensus Heisman winner Marcus Mariota and the callow Cardale Jones. Mariota and Jones do possess some stylistic similarities, as both are dual-threats who force defenses to use spy defenders, thus creating throwing lanes.
However, that's where the similarities largely end. The 6'5", 250-pound Jones is bigger than many NFL linebackers, and his "12-gauge" nickname embodies the cannon arm that has opened up Ohio State's vertical passing game. Though presumptive first overall pick Mariota has received lots of scouting love, Jones is starting to generate some hype himself:
Conversely, the Oregon offense is predicated on packaged plays that create defined short to intermediate reads for Mariota. While he does have the arm strength to gun one down the seams, and the speed to punish defenses with option keepers, the Ducks offense hums best when Mariota gets his playmakers the ball in space:
Thus, we should see a fascinating contrast between Oregon's up-tempo high-percentage passing game and the explosive big-play bombs from Jones and the Buckeyes. The opposing defenses can't simply scheme around these passing tendencies because of the mobility both quarterbacks provide, making for significant headaches on both sides.
Oregon Running Game vs. OSU D-Line
Mariota is a significant component of the Ducks' rushing attack as well. But Royce Freeman and Thomas Tyner are the headliners of the ground game, as Oregon just compiled an absurd 301 rushing yards against a rangy and uber-athletic Florida State defense. However, Ohio State has the same level of athletes as the Seminoles, and it should provide much tougher sledding.
The defensive line trio of Joey Bosa, Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington is arguably the best in the nation, and they're backed up by a strong linebacker unit that includes Darren Lee (two sacks and three TFL vs. Alabama). Excluding a 25-yard Derrick Henry touchdown scamper, the Buckeyes held the Crimson Tide to 4.4 yards per carry, well below their 5.1 season average or Oregon's 5.5 average.
Oregon's running game has been incredibly prolific this season, but stopping them isn't unprecedented. Arizona held the Ducks to 3.5 yards per carry in their October upset at Eugene, while Washington State held them to 4.1 per attempt in a seesaw contest they ended up losing 38-31.
Conversely, Ohio State hasn't faced a spread up-tempo attack like Oregon's this season, and as the Seminoles illustrated, the results can be catastrophic when a defense is clearly shell-shocked. This is likely the game's most important matchup, as the underdog Buckeyes must demonstrate better containment and assignment discipline than Florida State did to have a chance at the upset.
The Turnover Battle
In addition, the most prominent disparity between these teams relates to turnovers. Ohio State's plus-10 turnover margin ranks 15th in the country, but they also had three turnovers against the Tide. Oregon has given away the ball just 10 times and possesses a plus-20 turnover margin, both of which are the best marks in the nation.
Otherwise, both offenses are extremely balanced. According to Football Outsiders' FEI-plus ratings, Oregon and Ohio State boasted the second- and fourth-best offenses in the country during the regular season. They're extremely balanced, as both averaged over 5.5 yards per carry and 9.0 yards per attempt. Quite simply, it doesn't appear as if either can be stopped on a per-play basis.
Thus, big plays look like the best hope for both defenses. Ohio State actually forced more turnovers than Oregon (32 to 30), as only three teams exceeded the Buckeyes' 24 interceptions on the season. This is a significant strength-on-strength matchup, as these were the two playoff teams to have a positive turnover differential.
As the Seminoles learned, the combination of a sudden possession change and Oregon's lightning-fast offense can snowball into disaster very quickly. Of course, a pick-six also propelled the Buckeyes' upset over Alabama. With the talent margin so thin, the team that wins this battle will hold a substantial edge.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
