
Oregon vs. Ohio State: Biggest Keys for College Football Championship 2015
Oregon used a second-half barrage to pull away from Florida State, advancing to the final and ending the Seminoles' 29-game win streak in the process. Ohio State withstood a late rally by Alabama to complete an entertaining upset. Now, the two teams left standing play for the title.
The Ducks head into the College Football Playoff finale as the favorite and rightfully so. When they have clicked on all cylinders this year, they have looked unstoppable. NumberFire suggests the gap between the teams isn't as big as it may seem, though:
It points toward a thrilling conclusion to the campaign. The CFP National Championship Game is set for Monday, Jan. 12 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. While the sides begin their preparations, let's examine the biggest key for each team.
Oregon: Don't Play Too Fast
The Ducks will probably downplay any discussion about the bigger picture leading up to the game. Yet, the result is definitely going to have a lasting impact. Ever since they began their rise, doubters have been skeptical about their style of playing working on the game's biggest stages.
Oregon must be careful, though. The natural tendency at this stage, especially when trying to prove something, is to start trying to play even faster. That would be a mistake, which is something it should have taken away from the semifinals.
The team's high-flying offense looked out of rhythm in the first half against Florida State. It wasn't until the Ducks got a chance to regroup at halftime that things finally fell into place after the break. The coaching staff needs to use that as a learning experience.
Afterward, Paul Myerberg of USA Today passed along comments from Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, who admitted the connection just wasn't there at first: "I didn't feel that I was too anxious going in. I just missed a couple throws here and there. But that's the thing with our offense. You start building a rhythm up—the offense has to go a little bit."
Once the Oregon offense gets rolling, it can put up points in a major hurry. The key is not giving Ohio State an advantage first by trying to play too quickly, which would likely lead to mistakes. Being a little conservative in the early going isn't a bad thing.
Thomas Tyner, Royce Freeman and Co. showed they are capable of leading the offensive charge in the semifinals. Attack the Buckeyes defense with the running back group early, start to build rhythm in the offense and that will open things up for Mariota as the game goes on.
Ohio State: Defend Play Action
Mariota heads into the title game with 40 passing touchdowns and just three interceptions. The only way a quarterback can have that much success through the air is when an offense has so many weapons it becomes incredibly difficult to stop them all.
Oregon has a reliable running game and a quarterback who can escape the pocket to make plays with his legs. Teams become so focused on slowing down those two aspects that there's usually huge passing lanes to take advantage of, especially in the second half.
As you'd expect, the Ducks use a lot of play-action calls to further capitalize on the overaggressive approach of opposing defenses. Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus provided some numbers on that subject heading into the semifinals:
"Perhaps the best stat that shows the difference in Oregon's offense compared to Florida State and even a traditional NFL offense, Mariota used play action on 51% of his drop-backs. By comparison, in the NFL, Alex Smith led the league with 31% and Winston only uses play action 16% of the time. Mariota's numbers are exceptional, but the grade sitting at only +5.5 shows that the play action game has led to some easier throws that have looked great on the stat sheet.
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The Buckeyes coaching staff must preach over the next 10 days to avoid biting on the fakes. The secondary has to trust the front seven to contain the running game. Otherwise, Mariota is going to beat them over the top against single coverage.
Ohio State wants to slow the pace of the game anyway. Giving up a couple extra yards on the ground in order to maintain structure at the back is perfectly fine. It just cannot let the Oregon offense find its stride like it did in the second half against Florida State.
Ultimately, the underdogs aren't going to be able to completely stop the Ducks. They have to pick their poison. Being able to prevent the play action from leading to big gains would go a long way in pulling off another upset.
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