10 College Football Teams That Will Take a Major Step Back in 2015
We'll always have last season.
For several college football teams, 2014 was a very successful year. Milestones were achieved, and new heights were reached. But many good things come to an end, and that means the upcoming year doesn't figure to be nearly as triumphant for some schools.
In fact, they're likely in for a down year in 2015. The combination of graduation, early NFL draft declarations and staff changes is a recipe for rough seas, and history has shown that there are a number of teams that fall back after climbing high.
Fresno State, Syracuse, Vanderbilt and Washington State were among those that had strong 2013 campaigns only to all finish below .500 this past year. Standouts in 2012 such as Florida, Kent State, Northwestern and Tulsa fell hard the following year.
Who is in line for a backslide in 2015? Check out our list of the 10 schools likely to regress next season.
Colorado State
1 of 10
2014 record: 10-3
Key departures: LB Aaron Davis, QB Garrett Grayson, RB Dee Hart, LB Max Morgan, LT Ty Sambrailo, coach Jim McElwain
Coming off the program's first 10-win season in a dozen years, Colorado State faces a major crossroads in 2015. Its record-setting quarterback is gone, while its running game has to replace a breakout back who's left early, among the seven key starters that are departing.
Then there's probably the biggest loss, coach Jim McElwain, who after three seasons turning around the Rams left for a bigger gig at Florida. His replacement, Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, is a first-time head coach who's gone from working with 4- and 5-star recruits to more second-tier prospects.
Garrett Grayson threw for 4,006 yards and 32 touchdowns this past season, finishing his career with more than 9,100 yards and 64 TDs. Running back Dee Hart, a transfer from Alabama, declared for the NFL draft after rushing for 1,275 yards and 16 scores, following Kapri Bibbs' early departure from the same position the year before.
The one thing that should keep Colorado State from falling off even more is the return of arguably the best underclassman wide receiver in the country. As a sophomore, Rashard Higgins led FBS with 1,750 yards on 96 receptions for 17 TDs.
But it will take more than a top-flight wideout to compete in the Mountain West's tough Mountain Division, where Air Force, Boise State and Utah State each reached 10 wins last season.
Duke
2 of 10
2014 record: 9-4
Key departures: WR Issac Blakeney, QB Anthony Boone, WR Jamison Crowder, LB David Helton, RT Laken Tomlinson
Duke has just completed the best three-year stretch in program history, winning 25 games and reaching three bowl games. The work that coach David Cutcliffe has done with one of the nation's worst power-conference teams is admirable, but this past season might have been the end of the run for the Blue Devils.
The Devils lose 10 senior starters, many of whom were of the fifth-year variety, so there's a lot of experience that needs to be replaced. The most pressing holes to fill are at quarterback and wide receiver. After two seasons of having the consistent combination of Anthony Boone being able to throw to Issac Blakeney and Jamison Crowder, that area will have a total overhaul.
Duke was reportedly in the running for Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel, who ended up transferring to Louisiana Tech instead, which gives you an idea of what the Blue Devils think of backup passer Thomas Sirk.
Each of the past two seasons has been a crapshoot in the ACC's Coastal Division. Duke was able to come out on top in 2013 and nearly repeated as champs this past season, but Georgia Tech has risen up to be that division's best team. Most of the other teams figure to improve off their subpar seasons in 2015.
East Carolina
3 of 10
2014 record: 8-5
Key departures: CB Detric Allen, QB Shane Carden, WR Justin Hardy, LB Brandon Williams, NT Terry Williams, WR Cam Worthy
There were high expectations for East Carolina in 2014, bringing a veteran team into a new conference and coming off its first 10-win season in more than two decades. The Pirates had some pitfalls, though, yet still put together a strong year in the American Athletic Conference and had some of the most productive offensive players in the country.
Now comes the dropoff, which seems inevitable when a team loses a three-year starting quarterback and two prolific wide receivers, one of whom leaves college as the all-time FBS leader in receptions.
Shane Carden has been piloting East Carolina's offense since early in his sophomore year and finished with nearly 12,000 passing yards. This past season he threw for 4,736 yards and 30 touchdowns, benefiting from two 1,000-yard receivers in Cam Worthy and Justin Hardy. Hardy, who had 121 catches for 1,494 yards and 10 TDs, surpassed Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles as the career receptions leader and ended up with 387 receptions.
East Carolina's defense was overshadowed by that offensive unit, yet it ranked 38th in yards allowed. But five starters depart, most notably two-thirds of its defensive line and its top tackler in linebacker Brandon Williams.
Add in the great new coaches who have joined the American for 2015—Houston, SMU and Tulsa all bring in offensive coordinators from power programs—and the Pirates figure to struggle mightily next year.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Kansas State
4 of 10
2014 record: 9-4
Key departures: WR/KR Tyler Lockett, DE Ryan Mueller, WR Curry Sexton, LB Jonathan Truman, QB Jake Waters
At 75 years old, does Bill Snyder have the drive to go through another rebuilding year?
In 23 seasons at Kansas State, Snyder has faced this situation before. A senior-heavy team departs, leaving behind little experience or production, and the result is a down year. This most recently happened in 2013, when the Wildcats went 8-5 after 10- and 11-win seasons.
The group that's been the nucleus of the team these past two years is on its way out, and it includes nearly all of the offensive production and the biggest playmakers on defense. And as successful as this past season was, we didn't see a lot of the future of Kansas State on the field because of how important those veterans were.
Nowhere does this ring more true than on offense, where Jake Waters threw for more than 3,500 yards and was the team's second-leading rusher. His top two targets, Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton, accounted for 185 of K-State's 271 receptions, nearly 69 percent of the receiving yards and 16 of 23 touchdown catches. Lockett was the school's career leader in every receiving and return statistic.
"We got to have some new leaders," Sexton told Kellis Robinett of The Wichita Eagle. "We had a large group of senior leaders and I hope they take nothing for granted. There is a lot of turnover from this year to next. There are going to be a lot of positions open, battling for jobs."
This is also the case on the defense, where top sack man Ryan Mueller and leading tackler Jonathan Truman are among the team's five graduating seniors.
Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article5384997.html#storylink=cpy
Marshall
5 of 10
2014 record: 13-1
Key departures: DE Arnold Blackmon, QB Rakeem Cato, LB Neville Hewitt, LB Jermaine Holmes, WR Tommy Shuler
Every major spike in Marshall's performance over the past 20 years has been tied to a big-time quarterback, the latest being record-setter Rakeem Cato. Now that he is moving on, along with huge chunks of the Thundering Herd's underrated defense, another fallback appears on the horizon in Huntington.
Cato, a four-year starter, threw for 14,079 yards and 131 touchdowns in his career, including 3,903 yards and 40 TDs in 2014. His career passing numbers rank eighth and tied for fourth in FBS history, respectively, and Cato holds the FBS record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass with 46.
Whoever replaces Cato won't have Marshall's top receiver at his disposal, as Tommy Shuler (1,138 yards, 9 TDs) has also moved on. The offense might become far more run-oriented in 2015, with juniors Devon Johnson and Steward Butler bringing back 2,765 yards and 24 TDs.
But with six starters moving on from a defense that ranked 32nd in yards allowed in 2014, Marshall will likely find itself in some shootouts next season. That's not the recipe for a running team, or one without an experienced quarterback to work with.
Missouri
6 of 10
2014 record: 11-3
Key departures: DE Markus Golden, RB/KR Marcus Murphy, DE Shane Ray, WR Bud Sasser, S Braylon Webb, defensive coordinator Dave Steckel
Many thought Missouri would drop off this past season, after its surprise run to the SEC East title in 2013. Instead, the Tigers went out and did the same thing and repeated as division champs, despite plenty of offensive hiccups and some inexplicable losses.
This time, though, we really mean it: Missouri won't be able to do it again in 2015.
A second straight year of having to replace major pieces of its defensive line will catch up to Missouri next fall, as Shane Ray—who declared for the NFL draft on Wednesday—and Markus Golden were two of the 10 players in FBS with at least 20 tackles for loss. Defensive tackle Matt Hoch graduates, and safety Braylon Webb is also moving on.
The Tigers were able to overcome defensive attrition in 2014 because of coordinator Dave Steckel, who turned a unit that was 82nd the year before into the 23rd-best in the country. But Steckel has moved on after 14 years with Mizzou to become head coach at FCS Missouri State.
"I feel like every year I've been here, we've developed some great players," Missouri defensive line coach Craig Kuligowski told David Morrison of the Columbia Daily Tribune. "And every year at the end of the year, they say, 'I don't know how these guys are going to do it.'"
Without that defensive dependability, the Tigers will have to turn to an offense that loses its top three receivers and versatile running back/kick return specialist Marcus Murphy. Quarterback Maty Mauk struggled for much of the year, and with even fewer veteran weapons to work with, he figures to have even more trouble in 2015.
Nebraska
7 of 10
2014 record: 9-4
Key departures: RB Ameer Abdullah, LB Zaire Anderson, WR Kenny Bell, DE Randy Gregory, coach Bo Pelini
Winning nine or 10 games each year wasn't good enough at Nebraska, which fired Bo Pelini despite hitting that victory total in all seven of his seasons. It was eerily similar to when the Cornhuskers decided Frank Solich's 58-19 mark from 1998-2003 was subpar, and they replaced him with Bill Callahan.
Callahan had two losing records—the only ones the program has gone through since the early 1960s—in four years at the helm, including his first season in 2004.
Enter Mike Riley, who won 93 games in 14 years at Oregon State but only reached nine-plus wins four times and just once since 2008.
But it's not simply the shocking coaching switch that figures to lead Nebraska to an off year. There's also the matter of replacing the school's No. 2 all-time rusher, Ameer Abdullah, top receiver Kenny Bell and monster defensive end Randy Gregory.
The most stable part of Nebraska's team is the quarterback position, where Tommy Armstrong has started 22 games over the past two seasons. Yet with Riley's background in developing quarterbacks, even that spot isn't set in stone.
"There's no reason the quarterback position shouldn't be up for grabs at Nebraska," Bleacher Report's Erin Sorensen wrote. "With a new head coach, it's the perfect time to reevaluate the players and put them all to the test."
This could work out in the long run, but in 2015 it could lead to a significant team-wide performance hiccup.
Oregon
8 of 10
2014 record: 13-1
Key departures: S Erick Dargan, CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, LT Jake Fisher, C Hroniss Grasu, QB Marcus Mariota (projected), LB Tony Washington
As a participant in the first College Football Playoff title game, anything short of getting back there again in 2015 could be considered a step back for Oregon. But for the Ducks, the fall figures to be much more steep, considering the player losses they are expected to endure after Monday's game against Ohio State.
Topping that list is quarterback Marcus Mariota, the Heisman Trophy winner. Though he hasn't declared for the NFL draft yet, it seems a foregone conclusion that the junior—whom Bleacher Report NFL draft expert Matt Miller ranks No. 1 overall—will turn pro before the Jan. 15 deadline. Most of Oregon's other skill players return in 2015, including great running backs and rising receivers, but without Mariota orchestrating the offense some dropoff should be expected.
It's also worth noting that Oregon's offensive line graduates three starters, so whoever the Ducks go with at quarterback will have that to worry about.
Beyond that, the Ducks are losing at least four key defensive stars, and that's not including potential NFL early entrants Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner from the defensive line.
Ole Miss
9 of 10
2014 record: 9-4
Key departures: LB Serderius Bryant, CB Senquez Golson, S Cody Prewitt, LB Deterrian Shackelford, QB Bo Wallace
Dr. Bo and the Landsharks made for fun viewing in 2014, with Ole Miss reaching new levels of success that included a milestone win over Alabama. But that defense broke down as the season went on, while hot-and-cold quarterback Bo Wallace was more bad than good down the stretch.
The passer and the primary defenders are all gone for next year, which puts the Rebels in jeopardy of suffering some major slippage in an SEC West that will once again be among the toughest and deepest divisions in the country.
Wallace threw for more than 9,500 yards over the past three seasons, but he also tossed 41 interceptions. Yet Ole Miss would probably love to have a veteran quarterback again, even one who is as mistake-prone as Wallace was, but instead will either be turning to an untested underclassman or former Clemson quarterback Chad Kelly.
Kelly, who was at a junior college last fall after being dismissed from Clemson in the spring, pleaded guilty last Monday to a disorderly conduct charge stemming from an incident outside a Buffalo bar in December.
The Rebels' offense may need to take on a much bigger role in 2015 since the Landshark defense, which led the nation in scoring at 16 points per game, graduates players that registered 19 of the team's 22 interceptions.
Wisconsin
10 of 10
2014 record: 11-3
Key departures: RB Melvin Gordon, RT Rob Havenstein, LB Derek Landisch, coach Gary Andersen
As surprising as it was that coach Gary Andersen bolted from Madison after only two years, seeing what he was going to have work with in 2015 made the move somewhat more understandable. Having to replace a running back coming off the second-most productive rushing season in FBS history (as well as three-fifths of the line that blocked for him) is as good a reason as any to seek a new gig.
Wisconsin has had to replace big-time rushers and quality linemen before, and thankfully there's usually been another potential standout waiting in the wings. James White bridged the gap between Montee Ball and Melvin Gordon, and Gordon's successor—sophomore Corey Clement—ran for 949 yards and nine touchdowns in 2014. But combine that with the coaching change, with former offensive coordinator Paul Chryst coming back after three years at Pittsburgh, as well as defensive losses and continued uncertainty at quarterback, and the transition won't be as easy this time.
Neither Joel Stave nor Tanner McEvoy showed enough this past season to foster excitement about the season ahead, which could lead Chryst to look at younger quarterback options.
The Badgers also graduate four defensive starters, all in the front seven, which should severely impact a unit that was fourth nationally in yards allowed.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
