5 Bold Predictions for 2015 National Championship Game
Picking a winner is easy. Guessing the final score isn't too hard either. But predicting specific instances of the first-ever College Football Playoff championship game? There's the real challenge.
We've been making bold predictions about the 2014 season since before it began, and while most of those haven't come close to happening a few have hit the mark. Now comes our final chance to go out on a limb and make some courageous choices, ones that are sure to thrill some fans and anger plenty of others.
Ohio State and Oregon are two championship-worthy teams that should make for a great title game. At this point, picking who will win is the only prediction that really matters, but we're going to throw out a few more guesses and see if we get lucky.
Cardale Jones Will Have More Total Yards Than Marcus Mariota
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Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota has thrown a touchdown pass in all 40 of his career starts, and with 10,463 yards he currently sits 72nd on the FBS all-time passing list. Using his season average of 294 yards per game, Mariota will end up about 10 spots higher.
But he won't be the most productive quarterback in the championship game, at least in terms of yards. That will be Cardale Jones, the former third-string player who has stepped in for Ohio State in the postseason and kept the Buckeyes' potent offense clicking on all cylinders.
Jones threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns in the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin and then followed that up with 243 passing yards and a TD in the Sugar Bowl victory over Alabama. Those outputs would rank 12th- and 13th-best on Mariota's season efforts, but this will be where Jones becomes even more involved with the offense.
Ezekiel Elliott has been able to run for big yards the past two games, helping pick up the slack for injured quarterback J.T. Barrett's mobility. But Oregon will be keying on the run, which might expose its thin secondary more than was the case against Florida State.
OSU has a deep-threat receiver in senior Devin Smith, who averages 27.7 yards per catch this season. If he breaks off a few long ones, that will lead to Jones' passing numbers exploding.
Thomas Tyner Tops 150 Rushing Yards
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A shoulder injury and a bum ankle kept Thomas Tyner out of Oregon's final two games in the regular season, as well as the Pac-12 title game. But when he returned to action in the Rose Bowl, there was no sign he'd ever been hurt.
Tyner ran for 124 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries, a rushing output that was nearly double the sophomore's previous best this season. The emergence of freshman Royce Freeman had cut into Tyner's production, as had the injury, as he's run for 511 yards and five TDs in 2014 after netting 711 yards and nine scores as a freshman.
"A healthy Thomas helps everybody out,'' Oregon coach Mark Helfrich told Jason Quick of The Oregonian. "It helps Marcus (Mariota). It helps Royce. It helps Byron (Marshall) be truly versatile and not have to lean one way or the other as far as a game-plan approach."
Tyner wasn't the featured back at first in the Rose Bowl, but he could be a big part of the game plan in the title game.
Ohio State allows 142 rushing yards per game, including 170 to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. That number would have been higher if the Crimson Tide didn't keep throwing in situations where running the ball seemed more sensible, as Alabama's offensive line was handling the Buckeyes' front seven pretty well.
Oregon's line is nearly as good as that one, and that group is playing at an all-time level in the last few games. Tyner will get big holes to work with and should top his career best of 140 yards set last season against rival Oregon State.
Joey Bosa's Sack Drought Stretches to Three Games
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If he were eligible for the draft this season, Ohio State defensive lineman Joey Bosa would be a hot commodity. ESPN's Todd McShay believes the sophomore would be a "lock top-five pick" in the 2015 draft, per Dave Briggs of the Toledo Blade.
But Bosa hasn't been able to put up the kind of numbers that would deem him worthy of such a high pick the last few games, going without a sack or tackle for loss in either the Big Ten title game or against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. In the 12 games prior, Bosa logged 13.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss, tallies that still rank fourth and tied for eighth, respectively, in FBS.
"Bosa is an aggressive, strong pass-rusher who has made a habit of living in opponents' backfields this season," wrote Bleacher Report's Greg Wallace. "He must be accounted for on every play, and he'll have to get pressure on Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota if the Buckeyes have any hope of slowing down the Ducks offense."
But OSU will have to figure out other ways to limit Oregon's attack, because Bosa isn't going to be the one that gets the job done. Oregon will have plans in place for defending him no matter where he lines up, and his stat line will again be quiet.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Ducks Commit Season High in Turnovers
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Lost amid the rash of turnovers that Florida State committed—and Oregon capitalized on—in the Rose Bowl was the fact that Oregon actually gave it away a few times. Two, to be exact, which was actually tied for the most giveaways for the Ducks this season.
Even more unusual was an interception thrown by Marcus Mariota, because it was only the third one he'd tossed in 408 attempts this season.
It says here that a new season high will be recorded in the giveaway department, as Ohio State will force at least three turnovers. It might take some lucky bounces, maybe a tipped ball or two, but it will happen.
Oregon Wins Without Reaching 30 Points
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If there's one magic number in the College Football Playoff championship game, it's 30. That's the scoring threshold that, over the years, has seemed to best align with how Oregon will do.
The Ducks have scored at least 38 points in all but one game this season, their 31-24 loss to Arizona. Last year, they went 11-2 and scored 30 or more in every win and were held below that number in losses to Arizona and Stanford.
Stretching back to the 2010 season, Oregon is 59-1 when it scores 30-plus and 1-6 when failing to reach 30. The outliers were a 15-13 win over California in 2010 and a 38-35 loss to USC in 2011, but since then it's been 39 wins and four losses with each column representing a different side of the 30-point barrier.
Ohio State is actually in the same boat this season, as it scored 24 in its loss and has tallied at least 30 in all of the wins. But with Oregon's history in this area going back five seasons, it's a far more telling stat for the Ducks.
You'd think this wouldn't come into play in the title game, with both teams averaging at least 45 points per game. But only twice in the past five championship games has a team—Alabama, both times—scored higher than its season average. Often, it's far below, such as Oregon and Auburn combining for 41 points after coming in both averaging more than 40.
Oregon won't hit its magical 30-point mark against Ohio State, but it will still find a way to win without the power gleaned from this arbitrary number.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
