Ohio State vs. Oregon: Instant Preview of the College Football Playoff Final
The first national championship game of the College Football Playoff era is set. Rose Bowl champion Oregon will play Sugar Bowl champion Ohio State for the national title on Monday, Jan. 12.
The Ducks advanced after a 59-20 demolition of the defending national champion, Florida State, in which they ended the longest winning streak in the country (29 games). The Buckeyes advanced after upsetting Alabama in New Orleans, 42-35.
In a funny coincidence, these teams actually have a common opponent: Michigan State, which Oregon beat 46-27 on its home field and Ohio State beat 49-37 on the road.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
But how will it all go down when they take the field at Jerry's World?
Let's take a look.
When: Monday, Jan. 12 — 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Watch: ESPN
Early Line: Oregon (-7), per David Purdum of ESPN
Biggest Storyline: The Heisman Winner vs. The Third Stringer
Marcus Mariota was a wire-to-wire Heisman Trophy favorite who won the award by one of the biggest margins ever.
Cardale Jones entered fall camp No. 3 on the depth chart and didn't make the first start of his career until the Big Ten title game.
Advantage: Oregon.
…Or is it?
Jones led Ohio State to 59 points against Wisconsin and 42 points against Alabama, using every inch of his massive frame (6'5", 250 lbs) to rocket the ball downfield and plow through defenders on the ground.
He isn't actually better than Mariota—not even close—but he's good enough to play the Heisman winner to a draw for 60 minutes. And if he does, Ohio State is good enough to win it all.
"Thanks for telling me we're playing Oregon," Jones told Joe Schad of ESPN after the game. "I look forward to playing the Heisman winner."
And the world looks forward to watching him.
Best Matchup: Oregon's Offensive Line vs. Ohio State's Front Seven
Oregon won the line of scrimmage against Florida State, rushing for 301 yards on 45 carries. It entered the CFP ranked No. 1 in the country in adjusted line yards—Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted metric for run blocking—and lived up to its billing in Pasadena.
Ohio State has a front seven that can hang with them, highlighted by defensive end Joey Bosa, defensive tackle Michael Bennett and linebacker Darron Lee. But the Buckeyes are top-heavy along the defensive line, loaded with start power but lacking for depth.
And depth is the key against Oregon.
Can Ohio State keep up with Mark Helfrich and Scott Frost's offensive pace? Or will the Ducks wear down the Buckeyes in the trenches?
The answer might determine the national champion.
Key to the Game: Finishing Drives
Ohio State will not be stopped between the 20s. At this point, that seems like a given. It gained 537 yards on 78 plays against Alabama, 558 yards on 56 plays against Wisconsin and 568 yards on 67 plays at Michigan State.
Altogether, it averaged 8.27 yards per play in those games.
But the Buckeyes trailed the Crimson Tide 21-6 at one point Thursday because they couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. They suffered a similar fate against the Spartans, albeit because of turnovers, trailing 21-14 before scoring 28 of the next 31 points.
Oregon, meanwhile, got pasted between the 20s by Florida State but managed to bend without breaking. It stopped Winston at the goal line on a critical 4th-and-goal and forced three field-goal attempts.
Considering the way each unit—Ohio State's offense and Oregon's defense—is rolling right now, it's hard to imagine the Ducks forcing many punts or three-and-outs. But if they can minimize the damage of each trip down to the red zone, it might not matter.
Prediction
Let's look to that common opponent.
Oregon beat Michigan State by 19 points. Ohio State beat Michigan State by 12 points. But the score was not indicative of those games.
Sparty hung close with the Ducks before fading in the second half, and they did it in Autzen Stadium on a 100-degree day in which their depth couldn't handle the pace of Oregon's offense. Ohio State handed Sparty a thorough beatdown on their home field and "only" won by 12 after some garbage-time scoring.
The absence of J.T. Barrett, who started for the Buckeyes when they played in East Lansing, is an obvious variable to consider. But two games into the Jones experiment, there hasn't been a drop-off to speak of.
Urban Meyer has the Buckeyes playing inspired, creative football, which could also be said of Helfrich and the Ducks, but not to the same extent. Alabama was the No. 1 team in the country. Florida State was (an overrated) No. 3. And even though the final score looked lopsided, the 'Noles left a lot of points on the board in the first half.
Ohio State is too hot right now. Meyer's big-game experience gives the Buckeyes the ultimate edge.
Final Score: Ohio State 38, Oregon 35
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
