College Football National Championship 2015: Predictions for Massive Title Clash
How did college football ever live without the playoff?
With each successive change to determine a national champion, the game has improved that little bit. Fans are then left to wonder how anybody ever could've done it differently. With the playoff, you get the sense that a true champion will be revealed in a season that would've been a disaster under the BCS umbrella.
Both Oregon and Ohio State likely would've been overlooked in favor of Alabama and Florida State in past years, and now the two are competing in the inaugural College Football Playoff National Championship.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The game itself isn't for nearly two weeks, so there's still a lot of time to really analyze the matchup. But both teams have a large body of work, so forecasting the outcome isn't impossible.
Below are three early predictions for the title battle.
Royce Freeman Will Run for Over a Hundred Yards
By his high standards this year, Royce Freeman was a bit subdued in the win over Florida State, rushing for 44 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries. In comparison, Thomas Tyner went for 124 yards and two TDs on 13 carries, his first 100-yard game of the year.
Freeman arguably made the bigger statement, though, dragging Florida State defensive tackle Eddie Goldman, a potential first-round draft pick, into the end zone on his second touchdown run. The Associated Press' Ralph D. Russo was more than impressed with the freshman's power:
The run was over quickly, but it was a small sample as to how powerful Freeman is and how tough he can be to bring down.
Freeman's not quite a carbon copy of Derrick Henry, but one only needs to have watched Henry's success against the Buckeyes on the ground in the Sugar Bowl to see that the Ducks star can be similarly productive in the national title game. Henry finished with 95 yards on 13 carries.
Had Alabama not frozen him out in the second half, the Tide might have won. It's anybody's guess as to why offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin decided to keep the ball out of the hands of his most productive player.
Heading into the Sugar Bowl, Ohio State gave up an average of 139.8 yards a game (34th in the country), which is good but not great.
The stage is set for Freeman to really put himself on the map.
The Buckeyes' Success Will Hinge on Ezekiel Elliott
Throughout the Sugar Bowl, you saw little moments that magnified Cardale Jones being a third-string quarterback making his second career start. Two in particular stand out: the sack on the goal line that was nearly a safety early on and his 11-yard loss on the third down before Alabama's final possession of the game.
A more experienced QB might have been able to at least throw the ball away and avoid losing so much ground.
Jones finished 18-of-35 for 243 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He also ran for 43 yards on 17 carries. Most striking about Jones' game was how much he loved dishing out punishment to the defense:
"Think of how much easier it would have been to storm castles if invading armies had Cardale Jones.
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) January 2, 2015"
What helped Ohio State the most, though, was the fact that Jones didn't need to win the game all on his own. As was the case in the Big Ten championship, Ezekiel Elliott did the heavy lifting. Between the two games, he's rushed for 450 yards and four touchdowns, per Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman:
The less Jones needs to do in the national championship, the better. He will be making his third career college start, after all, in the biggest game of his career to date.
As long as Elliott's running the ball well and breaking a big play or two, Jones' inexperience won't become a factor.
Slowing down the pace of the game is the easiest way to beat Oregon, too. The Ducks have historically struggled against teams that dominate possession and keep the Ducks offense off the field. If Elliott's consistently eating up yards and moving the chains, Ohio State will dictate the tempo, thus marginalizing two of Oregon's greatest assets—Freeman and Marcus Mariota.
Ohio State Will Hang with Oregon in First Half but Fall Behind by Double Digits in Second
Ohio State very easily could've lost the Sugar Bowl. In between Steve Miller's pick-six in the third quarter and Elliott's 85-yard TD run with three minutes and 24 seconds left in the game, the Buckeyes had four drives that all ended in punts and totaled 25 yards.
Had Kiffin not seemingly sabotaged his own team, the Crimson Tide might have tied the game, and who knows what happens from there?
That same kind of dry spell could be fatal against a team like Oregon. The Ducks surged in the second half against Florida State, scoring 27 points in the third quarter and adding 14 more in the fourth.
Entering the Rose Bowl, they were one of the most potent teams offensively after halftime, averaging 20.8 points in the final two quarters (second in the country), according to TeamRankings.com. What's worth noting is that Oregon's second-half scoring average would be likely be even higher if it didn't take its foot off the gas late in a few games after building massive leads in the first half.
And for all of the talk about Ohio State's injuries at quarterback, the Ducks have had to replace their fair share of starters as well. They've handled the issue extremely well all season, especially when it comes to the offensive line.
Only Arizona's found the secret to beating Oregon, and that was during Oregon's worst stretch of the season. As Daniel Berk of the Arizona Daily Star noted, it's almost comical to think back to how fans in Eugene were so downtrodden after that loss:
Since November, the Ducks have won by an average of 32 points. Even Urban Meyer couldn't believe how much they manhandled Florida State, via Sports Illustrated College Football:
The margin for error is so small against Oregon. Not only is the Ducks offense among the best in the country, but it's turned the ball over now 10 times, which is still the fewest in the country.
The critique could be made that the final score inflated how good Oregon truly was in the win over Florida State, but the Ducks systematically dismantled the only unbeaten remaining Power-Five team.
Ohio State will stay competitive with Oregon through the first three quarters of the game, but the Ducks will score a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter and coast until the final whistle.
Note: All stats are courtesy of NCAA.com unless otherwise noted.
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