Complete Bye Week Viewing Guide for New England Patriots
The Wild Card Weekend provides an invaluable recovery and self-scouting period for the New England Patriots, as well as time for their fans to unwind before the playoff stress kicks into high gear. With home-field advantage locked up, merely holding serve will return the Pats to their sixth Super Bowl of the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.
Of course, that's been far from a given in recent seasons, as the Patriots have suffered more playoff heartbreak than most teams since their last Lombardi Trophy. With plenty of internal issues to work on before the divisional round, New England is not a team strong enough to simply show up and expect to win without its A-game, even though it will be favored throughout the AFC playoffs.
We'll turn the focus back inward in due time, but for now, it's more helpful and informative to look at the Patriots' three possible opponents next week: the Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens. There's not a whole lot of overlap stylistically between these teams, so the Pats face a trio of very different potential challenges.
For Pats fans seeking a smarter Wild Card viewing experience, let's take a deeper dive into the players and schemes to watch from each of those three squads while also dissecting how New England may match up with each possible opponent.
What to Watch for with Cincinnati
1 of 6
Player to Watch: Jeremy Hill
In its first meeting against the Bengals, New England stymied the Cincy running game, holding Giovani Bernard to just 62 yards on 13 carries. However, since the rookie Hill was officially named the No. 1 running back before Week 15, the Bengals have averaged 5.1 yards per carry, fourth-best in the league during that span.
That's not a coincidence, as Hill as been one of the league's most efficient runners. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), 32.5 percent of Hill's yardage has come on runs of 15 or more yards, the 10th-best mark in the league. With Bernard limited by injuries, Hill's emergence has provided a lifeline for Cincy's relatively conservative offense.
The LSU product was a non-factor back in Week 5, carrying the ball twice for one yard. Cincinnati didn't run the ball much since it fell behind by two touchdowns within the first five minutes, but if the Bengals advance to face the Patriots again, stopping the rookie will be the focal point of New England's defensive game plan.
X's and O's: How Cincy Covers Colts Tight Ends
Much like the Patriots, the Colts utilize plenty of "12" personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) as their main offensive package. The duo of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener set an NFL record this season, becoming the first pair of tight ends to each score at least eight touchdowns.
Cincinnati has actually been excellent against tight ends this season. Based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics, the Bengals have been the fourth-best defense in limiting opposing tight ends. For the season, tight ends have averaged just 52 yards per game when facing the Bengals.
Of course, the Patriots were one of the few teams to crack that code. The Bengals game was Tim Wright's coming-out party, as the second-year tight end recorded five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. Wright and Rob Gronkowski combined for 11 catches, 185 yards and two scores that night, which marked the Patriots' first definitive shift toward becoming a 12-personnel offense.
Neither Fleener nor Allen is at the same level as Gronk, but in tandem, they're arguably as dangerous as the Patriots' two-tight end sets. Watch out for how Cincy utilizes box safety Reggie Nelson and coverage linebackers Vincent Rey and Emmanuel Lamur to combat the Colts, particularly in the red zone.
What to Watch for with Indianapolis
2 of 6
Player to Watch: Dwayne Allen
The third-year pro Allen is one of the league's underrated budding tight ends. Not only is he a premier red-zone target, but Allen's 98.9 percent pass-blocking efficiency ranked fifth at the position, illustrating his all-around value as a traditional "Y" tight end.
The Patriots were fortunate not to face Allen the first time, as he missed the Week 11 game with a sprained ankle. New England was subsequently able to use Brandon Browner on Coby Fleener while being able to hide Patrick Chung's inconsistencies in coverage.
However, Chung or Jamie Collins likely would have been assigned to Allen if he had suited up, removing a body from the box. Teams often play conservative two-high zones against the Colts; part of that stems from Indy's rushing woes, but it's also meant to take away the seam routes that Fleener and Allen can eviscerate defenses with if they're not careful.
Allen didn't play in Week 17, as Indy sat him to rest a knee injury. If Allen is healthy enough to play a full load of snaps, that could preview the type of passing attack New England could expect to see against the Colts.
X's and O's: Colts' Run D vs. Zone and Stretch Runs
Every Patriots fan remembers Jonas Gray's coming out party on the Sunday night stage. Gray isn't necessarily special as a runner—though he runs with good forward lean, he doesn't break many tackles for a back of his size—but the Patriots offensive line consistently forged gaping holes for the third-year back to gallop through, as the hogs up front played their best game of the year.
Take five minutes to watch this film breakdown from DallasCowboys.com's Bryan Broaddus, as he really illustrates how the Colts front seven got consistently suckered down and sealed off by counters, outside zones and traps. The Patriots didn't run anything outside of principles seen in the core running game, but for whatever reason, the Colts consistently abandoned their gaps in that game.
Ironically, Indy has actually been one of the league's best run defenses since that humiliation. From Week 12 on, the Colts allowed 3.78 yards per rush, the seventh-best mark in the league. Nothing significant changed personnel-wise from that ignominy, though rotational two-gapper Arthur Jones did return to the lineup.
Cincinnati doesn't have the offensive linemen to run the same game plan New England executed, as the Bengals guards aren't generally agile enough to pull so frequently. Nevertheless, keep an eye on the Colts' general discipline in run fits, as they'd surely be eager to prove themselves against the Pats' running game again.
What to Watch for with Baltimore
3 of 6
Player to Watch: Marshal Yanda and Kelechi Osemele
OK, so this is cheating a bit with two players. However, the starting guards Yanda and Osemele have keyed the Ravens offensive line, which has been arguably the league's most improved unit from 2013. After ranking last in adjusted line yards (a measure of run blocking) last season, Baltimore's line ranked third this season, catalyzing Justin Forsett's career year.
Yanda will almost certainly kick out to right tackle this week, as normal starter Ricky Wagner is on injured reserve, while third tackle James Hurst will move to the left side with Eugene Monroe out. Nevertheless, Yanda and Osemele ranked first and sixth among guards in PFF's grading metrics this year, as the Ravens offense has often operated by winning in the trenches.
Their opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, play a traditional 3-4 that differs from New England's hybrid 3-4 scheme. However, the Ravens will still employ Gary Kubiak's outside zone-running scheme and try to spill Pittsburgh's front seven players out of their lanes, creating cutback lanes for Forsett to burst through.
Line play isn't sexy, but try to check in on the trenches every now and then on Saturday night. Yanda and Osemele possess a blend of technique and power, and they would likely present the toughest challenge to New England's defense in a divisional round meeting.
X's and O's: Ravens' Sub-Package Pressure
Patriots fans know that there is no quicker way to diffuse Tom Brady and Co. than consistent pressure. This is an area where the Ravens excel, particularly when they utilize a terrifying sub-package rushing trio of Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil and Pernell McPhee.
Among 3-4 outside linebackers, Baltimore's linebacking troika all ranked in the top six in PFF's cumulative grades. Again—by one advanced metric, the Ravens possessed half of the six best 3-4 outside linebackers in the league. The trio combined for 36.5 sacks, 42 hits and 95 hurries on the season, an absolutely devastating amount of production.
Baltimore ranks fifth in DVOA against the run, meaning that opposing offenses often find themselves in unfavorable passing situations where the linebackers can tee off. The real problem is in the versatility of those rushers—there's speed with Dumervil, power with Suggs and the ability to blitz through interior gaps with McPhee.
Thus, avoiding a one-dimensional offense is critical toward surviving the Ravens rush. It might be too late for the Steelers, who will likely be missing Le'Veon Bell, but the Patriots can take note if Ben Roethlisberger is forced to drop back 40 to 50 times.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
How Patriots Match Up with the Bengals
4 of 6
This is probably the matchup the majority of Patriots fans would like to see. Much of that stems from Cincy's reputation for playoff failure, but even if the Bengals do shake their demons to reach Foxborough, it's hard to see where they have a decisive edge over New England.
Cincy will likely use a possession-based formula to try and pull the upset in Indy this weekend. By running the ball with Hill and Bernard and closing the passing windows for Andrew Luck with Cover 2 man, Quarters and other split-safety coverages, the Bengals have the personnel to dictate to Indianapolis if they can execute.
However, that game plan would likely be obsolete against New England. In the second half of the season, the Patriots have allowed 3.29 yards per carry, the second-best mark in the league behind only the Detroit Lions. That's not arbitrary endpoint analysis, either, as the Pats have added important front seven bodies in Alan Branch and Akeem Ayers while getting Chandler Jones and Sealver Siliga back from injury in that time.
Against the Bengals defense, New England will not be afraid to run if Cincy plays back to take away the passing game. Cincinnati ranks 28th against the run in DVOA, and the beauty of 12 personnel is the fluidity it allows in play-calling based on what the defense shows.
The Patriots will have no problem keeping Gronk inside and taking Wright out for a blocker like James Develin or Michael Hoomanawanui if that's what the Bengals desire.
With Darrelle Revis available to take away Andy Dalton's top option in A.J. Green, the Bengals' passing game is poorly constructed to keep up if they fall behind. Thus, Cincinnati wouldn't appear particularly menacing as an opening-playoff opponent.
Threat Level: 4 out of 10
How Patriots Match Up with the Colts
5 of 6
In three meetings during the Andrew Luck era, the Patriots have thrashed the Colts by an average margin of 26 points per game. Thus, Pats fans might take comfort in recent history and take Indianapolis lightly.
It's probably foolish to feel comfortable against a team with a quarterback like Luck, but in truth, that's not an unfair attitude to take.
Luck has thrown four picks in those meetings due to his propensity to press for too much, especially when trailing. The third-year quarterback still hasn't kicked his most prominent flaw; according to Pro-Football-Reference, Luck has thrown nine touchdowns to eight picks this year when trailing, and his 83.1 QB rating in those situations ranks 24th in the league (min. 100 passes).
Offensively, the Patriots are not likely to rush for 200 yards for the third straight meeting, though they'd certainly incorporate plenty of Jumbo personnel with Cameron Fleming as a tackle-eligible sixth O-lineman. However, given that the Colts resorted to covering Rob Gronkowski with Sergio Brown last time, the Patriots could likely feature a pass-heavy game plan with 12 personnel if need be.
Indy's box safeties, Brown and LaRon Landry, ranked 43rd and 52nd among safeties in terms of receptions allowed on a per-snap basis. So while Brady struggled throughout the first meeting, tossing a pair of first-half interceptions, it seems likely the Pats would have plenty of success through play action.
Again, any team with a quarterback of Luck's caliber must be taken seriously. But there aren't many other Indy units that perform at an above-average level. New England's balance should become overwhelming, even if Luck performs better than he has in three career games against the Patriots.
Threat Level: 5 out of 10
How Patriots Match Up with the Ravens
6 of 6
Gillette Stadium has been an impregnable fortress over the last eight seasons. Since 2007, the Patriots have gone 63-10 at home, easily the best mark in the entire league.
However, the Ravens are arguably the lone team unfazed by that gaudy record. Baltimore has handed New England two of their three home postseason losses in that span and came within a Lee Evans drop and Billy Cundiff shank of going 3-of-3 in Foxborough. In the latter half of Tom Brady's career, one could make a strong case that Baltimore has been his greatest nemesis.
This isn't the same Ravens team that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago, and on paper, the Patriots hold the talent edge. The New England defense would likely be able to hold Baltimore in check by limiting Forsett and forcing Joe Flacco to gamble in long down-and-distance situations. Without a particularly versatile passing game, it's difficult to imagine the Ravens piling up long drives.
However, one could say the same for the New England offense. With a dilapidated, injury-riddled secondary, Baltimore's biggest weakness is its deep pass defense. However, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Patriots hit just 46 passes of 20 or more yards during the regular season, 22nd in the league.
The Ravens still don't have a great answer for Gronkowski, but their pass rush presents the ultimate trump card. Let's not overstate things too much—the Patriots would be deserved favorites at home, and it would be a disappointment if they did not win. However, the Ravens have the tools to batter New England and keep the game close, making them the biggest threat among the potential Wild Card Round opponents.
Threat Level: 7.5 out of 10
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
