Insider's Guide to the Sugar Bowl: Don't Trust Urban Meyer, and Picking a Winner
NEW ORLEANS — Urban Meyer is 36-3 at Ohio State, yet he said this week that "We have a long ways to go" when asked if this 2014 team is close to the standard he wants for the program.
Do you feel like you are being set up? You should.
On Jan. 8, 2007, Meyer's Florida team was an underdog to Ohio State in the BCS National Championship Game, and the Gators trashed the Buckeyes 41-14. He played it cool with that team before the title game, and he is playing it cool with his latest underdog.
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His Buckeyes are nine-point dogs to Alabama, according to Odds Shark, in the College Football Playoff semifinal Thursday night. But my feeling is the master psychologist Meyer and his sidekick, strength and conditioning coach Mickey Marotti, are going to make these players edgy for this game. Alabama should be worried by this.
On Jan. 2, 2009, in the Sugar Bowl, Utah felt offended by a remark from Nick Saban and, in a pissed-off manner, beat the Tide in the Superior Dome.
Five Things
1. Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott is going to be a factor, but not by running the ball.
He's averaging nearly nine yards a carry his last three games. However, Ohio State coaches have seen enough film that they wonder if they can hit Elliott on a wheel route for a big play—usually on first down with middle linebacker Trey DePriest on the field—if they get Alabama in a base defense.
The Crimson Tide's defensive line, led by A'Shawn Robinson and Jonathan Allen, is the kind of line that does not just fill gaps...it defines the gap. Elliott won't run, but he may catch and run.
2. Alabama freshman punter JK Scott is a weapon. He averages 47 yards a kick and can parachute the ball inside the 20 (54.2 percent of the time, which is the best in the country). Inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome with fresh, clean air, he will make Ohio State go 75 and 80 yards.
On the other hand, the Buckeyes have an issue with field-goal kicking. Maybe some of that will be mitigated by indoor-friendly conditions, but Sean Nuernberger is 11-of-18 (5-of-10 from between 40 and 49 yards). The kicking game stands out as an advantage for Alabama.
3. There is no dark sky to look up into in the Superdome. You look up into lights. Bright lights. It sounds silly, but when the big arm of Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones launches those throw-me-open shot plays for wide receiver Devin Smith, do the 'Bama safeties look back and up into those lights and lose the ball?
Smith told me he has a 40-inch vertical, and he averages 26.6 yards a catch. He can snatch that pigskin on a jump ball for a big play, just like he did against Wisconsin...indoors.
4. Ohio State should be an underdog because it is using a third-string quarterback. It is not an underdog because of the rest of the talent on the field. Its players are really fast, just like Alabama's.
The Crimson Tide have a first-round pick on the defensive line, Robinson, and probably another one in Allen. Ohio State has a great D-lineman, too, Joey Bosa, who has a J.J. Watt motor. The defensive lines are going to be worth watching all night, especially when Ohio State gets into that frenzied mode with Bosa and Michael Bennett.
5. You can't bet against Alabama because of the quarterback situation. You just can't. The Crimson Tide are going to have smoke and mirrors all night for Jones, who has thrown 36 passes in his career.
He is supremely confident. He gets good coaching, but is he going to make that 3rd-and-8 throw? Alabama, on the other hand, has Blake Sims, who can scoot from trouble with his feet and convert third downs.
The Pick: Alabama 24, Ohio State 17
The Buckeyes are on the doorstep and with J.T. Barrett at QB might have won this game.
Ray Glier covers college football for Bleacher Report.
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