2015 Oakland Raiders Free Agency: An Early Guide to the Market

It was another disappointing year for the Oakland Raiders. The team played better toward the end of the season, but it wasn't enough to make up for the disheartening 0-10 start.

But one of the best parts of sports is that there's always next season. And for the Raiders, the hope is real. The team was better than the final 3-13 record would indicate. Derek Carr, Khalil Mack and Latavius Murray showed real potential, and the team will build around them moving forward.

The biggest issue was the lack of consistent difference-makers on both sides of the ball. Last season, Reggie McKenzie refused to spend big on any one player. But now that the core of the team is starting to come together, it's time for the Raiders as an organization to start making moves that will lead directly to more wins.

And for that to happen, the organization has to be willing to spend its substantial amount of available money on big names.

Here's an early look at Oakland's outlook for the upcoming free-agency period and what the team needs to do to finally return to relevance.

Plenty of Cap Space

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When Reggie McKenzie first took over as general manager of Oakland in 2012, he made sure to point out that rebuilding the organization wouldn't happen overnight. The goal was to turn things around by the third year, and most fans were willing to be patient. The team hadn't had a winning season since 2002, and it looked as if it hadn't had direction since then either.

McKenzie seemed to have a plan, so fans were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for another bad season or two. 2014 was that third season Raiders fans had circled on their calendar. And needless to say, everyone was disappointed. No one expected a Super Bowl run, but everyone expected much better than a 3-13 record.

In his three seasons, McKenzie has compiled a 11-37 record. That alone is not enough to keep his job.

But he has done some good, particularly in regard to the team's finances. Al Davis will always be untouchable within Raider Nation and with good reason. But even the most diehard fans know that he spent the last years of his tenure as owner throwing good money after bad, desperately chasing one more Super Bowl. This left the team financially in shambles, and everyone recognizes the massive damage this did to it.

McKenzie managed to fix that. Oakland entered 2014's free agency with over $60 million to spend. And thanks to McKenzie, the organization will find itself in a similarly ready-to-spend position in 2015. According to ESPN.com's Bill Williamson, the Raiders will have at least $47 million this upcoming free agency, and they could have even more thanks to "some of their easy-to-get-out-of deals."

That's all fine and good, but McKenzie's performance last offseason doesn't inspire much confidence. He brought in a lot of veterans, and it did the team no good. With a a few exceptions, such as Justin Tuck and Donald Penn, none of the free agents made much if any difference.

McKenzie has created plenty of cap room once again. The question is whether he can actually get it to make a difference this time.

Here's a breakdown of what McKenzie's plan of attack should be heading into free agency.

Biggest Needs

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Given that the Raiders finished 3-13, it should come as no surprise that this list isn't a short one. But there are some areas where the organization desperately needs to make major changes. Here's a look at Oakland's top priorities separated by order of importance.

First Priority

Wide Receiver

Second Priority

Defensive Tackle

Third Priority

Cornerback

While the Raiders can use upgrades or reinforcements in many other areas—right tackle, defensive end, tight end, running back, safety—those areas are passable at this point compared to the three listed above.

The team's needs have been prioritized in order of deficiency. In other words, how far away is Oakland at these positions from being good enough? The Raiders are missing a top-tier player who can consistently affect the game at each of these positions, and they have to find one this offseason.

3. Cornerback

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Overview

2014 Cornerbacks
Tarell Brown	Carlos Rogers	D.J. Hayden
T.J. Carrie	Chimdi Chekwa	Keith McGill
Neiko Thorpe	Chance Casey	Taiwan Jones

The Raiders started off the season dangerously thin at cornerback, and it only got worse as the season progressed. Brown and Rogers were brought in to provide a veteran presence for a young and unproven group, and the plan looked as if it might have a chance. But they both were eventually lost due to injury, and none of the young cornerbacks stepped up.

The real hope was that while the veteran additions took the bulk of the responsibility early, Hayden would eventually take his place as the team's top corner. But when he was forced to step in as the No. 1 cornerback, he was unable to do the job.

Carrie proved to be surprisingly effective, and McGill also showed potential over the last few games. But overall, this unit is missing someone capable of going one-on-one with the opponent's top wide receiver every down. To remedy that, Oakland must try to bring in one of the following cornerbacks.

The Options

Top 2015 Free-Agent Targets
Player	Age	2014 Stats			Projected Contract
		Tackles	INTs	Passes Defensed
Antonio Cromartie*	30	48	3	10	3 yrs./$21 mil
Tramon Williams	31	71	3	13	5 yrs./$35 mil
Brandon Flowers	28	52	3	10	2 yrs./$23.5 mil
* Top option

Flowers could be too expensive, even if Oakland does have the money to spend. He is only 28 and entering his prime, which could justify the price tag. But with the other needs the team has, it would be hard for the Raiders to justify spending that much on a player who won't directly lead to many more wins.

Williams could be acquired for a reasonable cost, but the Green Bay Packers won't let him go easily. Even though the Green Bay organization isn't known for overpaying, it's undeniable that Williams has single-handedly improved the entire defense. It would also take a significant amount of money to draw him away from a Super Bowl contender to a team trying to crawl its way out of the NFL cellar.

Cromartie is the the best combination of production and cost. He could also be acquired on a shorter contract, which is more along the lines of what McKenzie has been prone to go with since coming to Oakland. A top-caliber cornerback for $7 million a year would immediately improve the entire defense while not eating up too much of the cap.

Conclusion

The Raiders have some depth and talent at cornerback. But the unit is too thin at the top. With no one to take on the opposition's top wide receiver alone, the defense is left to try and stop him through scheme and by sending help his way. It throws off the secondary's balance, and it creates a domino effect that allows every opposing wide receiver to do damage.

A true No. 1 cornerback will place every other cornerback in a position to actually succeed. It'll also give Hayden, Carrie and McGill more time to develop.

2. Defensive Tackle

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Overview

2014 Defensive Tackles
Antonio Smith	Justin Ellis	Pat Sims
Stacy McGee	Ricky Lumpkin

Solving the cornerback issue in Oakland is important, but that won't do any good if the problem isn't stopped at the source. No matter who's in the secondary, the defense won't be able to stop the opponent's passing game as long as the opposing quarterback continues to have so much time. The Raiders finished 2014 with only 22 sacks, second to last in the entire league.

The run defense wasn't much better. Here are some key stats that reflect how ineffective the Oakland rushing defense was.

		NFL Rank
Attempts Against	481	29
Total Rushing Yards	1911	22
Average Yards Per Game	119.4	22
Average Yards Per Carry	4.0	8
Touchdowns	17	28

Teams ran it against Oakland often, and it proved to be a successful approach.

Both of these problems could be addressed with effective defensive tackle play, but there's no one currently on the Oakland roster who can provide it.

Smith can still contribute, but he's a role player. Sims earned a new contract based on his performance toward the end of last season, but he was unable to repeat that level of play. And while rookie Ellis showed promise, he's still unproven and can't be depended on. This offseason the Raiders have to secure a true difference-maker up the middle.

The Options

Top 2015 Free-Agent Targets
Player	Age	2014 Stats		Projected Contract
		Tackles	Sacks
Ndamukong Suh*	27	53	8.5	5 yrs./$55 mil
Dan Williams	27	32	1	4 yrs./$27 mil
B.J. Raji	28	N/A	N/A	4 yrs./$33 mil
*Top option

It's going to be interesting to see how Raji fares this offseason. He was a free agent looking to cash in last year, but he ended up settling for a one-year deal back in Green Bay. Unfortunately, he missed the entire season due to a torn bicep. He'll once again be looking for a big payday, and his connection to McKenzie could lead to a mutual interest.

However, the Raiders can't afford to spend big on a defensive tackle coming off a major injury and who doesn't have a set position. Is he a 4-3 defensive tackle, or is he a 3-4 defensive end? This is a gamble Oakland can't afford to take.

Williams is a solid producer, but he's not a game-changer, which is what the Oakland defensive line needs. The Raiders can find the type of production he provides for less and possibly from someone already on the team.

The real gem of the group is Suh. With this one move, the entire defense would greatly improve. The Raiders would infuse their defense with a disruptive force both against the pass and the run.

The catch is that Suh's production comes with his character issues. At this point in his career, it has to be accepted that they come with the package. The right coach might be able to stop that, but that's not guaranteed. Still, it's worth the risk for a team like Oakland that's desperate for difference-makers and embraces players with this type of edge.

Conclusion

The single biggest improvement the Raiders have to make on defense is adding production in the middle of the defensive line. The defense has a lot of problems. Fortunately, they can all be fixed or at least improved by adding Suh, arguably the NFL's best defensive tackle.

The price tag will be high, but the Raiders have the money to spend. And at only 27 years old, he's worth the investment.

1. Wide Receiver

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Overview

2014 Wide Receivers
Andre Holmes	James Jones	Brice Butler	Kenbrell Thompkins
Vincent Brown	Rod Streater	Denarius Moore

Oakland's lack of a playmaker at wide receiver was painfully obvious. While the team has some nice pieces at the position, none of them is anywhere near to being a true No. 1 option. The truth is that it's a stretch to say that there's even a consistent No. 2 option on the roster.

Holmes, Jones and Butler should be featured. But the Raiders have to add someone who can consistently take the top off the defense. This will allow the receivers already on the roster to move down the depth chart and play roles they're better suited for.

The Options

2015 Top Free-Agent Targets
Player	Age	2014 Stats			Projected Contract
		Catches	Yards	TD
Demaryius Thomas*	27	111	1619	11	5 yrs./$59 mil
Dez Bryant	26	88	1320	16	5 yrs./$63 mil
Randall Cobb	24	91	1287	12	4 yrs./$35 mil
*Top option

Given his production, Cobb would be a steal at his projected price. The problem is that he's yet to prove that he's a true No. 1 option. He's put up impressive numbers, but he's done so behind Jordy Nelson. He's yet to prove that he can maintain the same level of play without someone else taking the defense's attention away from him.

There's no question that Bryant is a tremendous weapon. However, it's not a good idea to bring in the prototypical diva wide receiver and force your young quarterback to deal with his ego. Derek Carr has already begun to establish himself as the leader of the offense. Bringing in a disruptive player like Bryant could ultimately cause more harm than good.

Thomas is the best option. He's learned to play with Peyton Manning, which means he knows his place on the field and in the locker room: The quarterback is the leader, and the wide receiver takes the role he's given.

The addition of a true No. 1 receiver like Thomas would improve both the running and the passing game. Defenses would no longer be able to cheat up front because they will have to respect the fact that they can get beaten downfield on a consistent basis.

The Oakland offense struggled to score points all season because it was inconsistent on the ground and through the air. The team now has a quarterback and a running back in Latavius Murray. Thomas is the missing piece.

Conclusion

The defense was inconsistent in part because of a lack of talent. But it showed potential. The biggest issue was how often it received no help from the offense. Even when the defense was getting stops, it had to run right back onto the field. Eventually it would wear down.

Improving the offense will help the team on both sides of the ball. And the single biggest improvement will be the addition of a No. 1 wide receiver. Thomas will demand a high price. But given the effect his addition will have on the entire team, it's worth it.

Conclusion

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Oakland has plenty of holes to plug throughout the roster, and that needs to be done both through free agency and the draft. The advantage of picking up a big name through free agency is that the team will add a proven producer.

During the last offseason, McKenzie brought in some nice pieces, but they're all role players. Despite the immense amount of money he had to spend, he had to spread it throughout the entire roster. Now that the roster has been mostly filled, he can afford to spend big on single players.

The Raiders were much better than their final record indicates. The team's flaw was a lack of consistent difference-makers, particularly at cornerback, defensive tackle and wide receiver.

There are going to be proven difference-makers available at these positions. Now is the time to spend big.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats taken from ESPN.com. Contract projections for next season taken from Spotrac (h/t Bleacher Report's Russell S. Baxter).

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