Ed Feng's Week 2 College Football Playoff Standings Predictions
How would the College Football Playoff committee rank teams this week? Which four teams would make the playoff?
We can use analytics to make an educated guess on the committee rankings. The AP poll provides a baseline for the top 25 teams before the committee releases its first poll.
My algorithm then adjusts teams based on the most recent opponent and margin of victory. Teams that win keep their place or make a jump if they beat a higher-ranked opponent, and teams that lose drop, but not as much if they lose to a highly ranked team. You get the idea.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Ohio State still reigns supreme after the Buckeyes' dominant win over Virginia Tech on Monday night.
Here's how the rest of the Top 25 shakes out and a look at the three most interesting Week 1 movers.
| 1 | Ohio State | Won at Virginia Tech 42-24 |
| 2 | TCU | Won at Minnesota, 23-17 |
| 3 | Alabama | Won vs. Wisconsin, 35-17 |
| 4 | Baylor | Won at SMU, 56-21 |
| 5 | Michigan State | Won at Western Michigan, 37-24 |
| 6 | Auburn | Won vs. Louisville, 31-24 |
| 7 | Oregon | Won vs. Eastern Washington, 61-42 |
| 8 | USC | Won vs. Arkansas State, 55-6 |
| 9 | Georgia | Won vs. UL-Monroe, 51-14 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | Won vs. Texas, 38-3 |
| 11 | Florida State | Won vs. Texas State, 59-16 |
| 12 | Clemson | Won vs. Wofford, 49-10 |
| 13 | UCLA | Won vs. Virginia, 34-16 |
| 14 | LSU | Game Canceled vs. McNeese State |
| 15 | Georgia Tech | Won vs. Alcorn State, 69-6 |
| 16 | Ole Miss | Won vs. UT-Martin, 76-3 |
| 17 | Arkansas | Won vs. UTEP, 48-13 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | Won vs. Akron, 41-3 |
| 19 | Arizona | Won vs. UTSA, 42-32 |
| 20 | Boise State | Won vs. Washington, 16-13 |
| 21 | Texas A&M | Won vs. No. 15 Arizona State, 38-17 |
| 22 | Missouri | Won vs. Southeast Missouri State, 34-3 |
| 23 | Tennessee | Won vs. Bowling Green, 59-30 |
| 24 | Mississippi State | Won at Southern Miss, 34-16 |
| 25 | Arizona State | Lost at Texas A&M, 38-17 |
The Battle for No. 2
Alabama beat a ranked Wisconsin team 35-17. The defense showed its typical elite form, and QB Jacob Coker looked solid in completing 15 of 21 passes for 213 yards.
In contrast, TCU struggled to a 23-17 win at Minnesota. Heisman favorite Trevone Boykin didn't have his best game, completing 26 of 42 passes for 246 yards. TCU didn't show the explosiveness of last year's offense, but the predicted committee rankings still have TCU ahead of Alabama.
Why?
My algorithm sets a high bar for a team to jump over another team that also won. A team has to either beat a higher-ranked team or win big over a lower-ranked team.
Alabama was ranked higher than Wisconsin in the preseason AP poll. In addition, the Crimson Tide didn't win by enough (21 points) to jump ahead of TCU. Alabama stays at third for allowing Wisconsin to score its second touchdown in the fourth quarter.
That said, it's splitting hairs between TCU and Alabama right now. They're close, but TCU gets the edge, for the moment.
It's a good thing we have 14 more weeks of football to evaluate these two teams.
Texas A&M Wins Its Way In
Did you predict the fall of the SEC West based on its 2-5 record in bowl games last season? Last year's sixth-place team Texas A&M couldn't possibly beat Pac-12 contender Arizona State, right?
Texas A&M scored a resounding 38-17 win over Arizona State. This large margin of victory over a ranked team moves the Aggies from unranked to 21st in the predicted committee rankings.
Coach Kevin Sumlin has made his reputation with a high-tempo offensive attack. However, the defense has never held up its end of the bargain. This offseason, Sumlin lured LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis to take over his defense, and it has already made a major impact. Brent Zwerneman of the Houston Chronicle passed along Coach Sumlin's thoughts regarding adding Chavis to the coaching staff:
The Texas A&M defense stood out on Saturday night in Houston, holding Arizona State to 3.6 yards per play, well below the FBS average of 5.6.
Alabama and Auburn also scored wins over Power Five opponents this week, making predictions of the SEC West's demise seem premature. As Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee noted, the "SEC re-established its dominance in Week 1":
"But instead of rolling snake eyes in its biggest games, the SEC hit the point with money backed up on the pass line. The wins in big games have changed the narrative back in the SEC's favor, provided a slightly bigger cushion over the conferences nipping at its heels, including the Pac-12, and given its heavyweights a little house money for the conference to play with for the rest of the season.
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The Aggies were the most impressive SEC team on opening weekend. How far will they climb this season?
Is This Notre Dame's Year?
The Fighting Irish have no excuses this season.
Under coach Brian Kelly, they returned every starter, except the quarterback and two offensive linemen, and one could argue they received an upgrade at the QB position anyway.
The season opener against Texas could not have gone any better. Notre Dame won 38-3, and QB Malik Zaire left no doubt about his passing by going 19-of-22 for 313 yards. The junior signal-caller made a statement on Saturday, asserting himself into the Heisman conversation in a big way.
Running back Tarean Folston sustained a season-ending injury, but his backup, C.J. Prosise, ran for almost five yards a carry behind a stout offensive line.
If Zaire sustains anything near this 13.1 yards per attempt against Texas (which includes minus-12 yards from one sack), he will not only become a front-runner for the sport's most prestigious award, but he'll also give Notre Dame a strong chance to make the playoff.
Ed Feng founded The Power Rank and has also written for Grantland and Sports Illustrated. Stats via ESPN.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Ed on Twitter @thepowerrank.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
