Sugar Bowl 2015: Examining Key Stats and Matchups in Alabama vs. Ohio State

Alabama and Ohio State have established themselves as arguably the two most successful programs of the 21st century.  The two schools have combined for 290 wins since the turn of the century, with Nick Saban and Urban Meyer spearheading top recruiting classes year after year.

Thus, it's only fitting that the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes meet as part of the inaugural College Football Playoff.  'Bama rolls into the Sugar Bowl as a 10-point favorite over Ohio State, which is down to its third-string quarterback in Cardale Jones.  However, as their 59-0 whitewashing over Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game illustrated, Ohio State has as much top-end talent as any program in the country, and it still has the horses to run with the Tide.

In determining how the semifinal might play out, let's take a look at some telling numbers and key matchups.  The team that can exploit the majority of these factors will hold a significant upper hand toward advancing to the national championship in Arlington.

Key Stats

Ohio State: 17.1 Yards per Attempt

That number represents Cardale Jones' yards per attempt in the Big 10 Championship Game, as the Buckeyes' third-stringer showed no appreciable drop-off from J.T. Barrett.  Though the callow sophomore has still thrown just 34 passes this season, Jones demonstrated eye-opening confidence in his physical abilities:

Indeed, while his individual talent and experience is a drop-off from that of Barrett and Braxton Miller, Jones receives the benefit of playing with one of the nation's premier offenses.  

Based on Football Outsiders' FEI plus rating, Ohio State's offense ranked fourth during the regular season.  Moreover, at 6'5" and and 250 pounds, Jones possesses a linebacker's frame and will be load to bring down for a Crimson Tide defense that just struggled against dual-threat quarterback Nick Marshall in the Iron Bowl.

Ohio State's ability to generate a respectable running game is of the utmost importance, as Alabama allowed the fewest rushing yards (88.7) and yards per attempt (2.8) in the country this season.  Jones passed just 17 times against Wisconsin because of the huge lead the Buckeyes established, so there's no evidence that he could handle a heavy load as a dropback passer.

Still, Jones did toss three scores of 39 or more yards in that game, so the threat of the big play exists.  It's difficult for any offense to move deliberately against 'Bama, so hitting those quick chunks again will be critical for the Buckeyes.

Alabama: 88.3 QBR

Blake Sims' adjusted QBR ranked second in the country this year, per ESPN.com, behind only Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.  The fifth-year senior wasn't even the projected starter in the preseason, as Florida State transfer Jacob Coker was a much more ballyhooed option.  

However, in transforming Alabama's historic offensive identity, Sims has emerged as one of the season's biggest surprises and won over scouts who doubted his viability:

With star tailback T.J. Yeldon hampered by ankle and hamstring injuries down the stretch, it's unclear how much impact the Tide's running game will have against an Ohio State defense that allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this season. Thus, Sims will likely have quite a bit on his plate.

However, that hasn't proved problematic for Sims this season.  In the SEC Championship Game against Missouri, when Yeldon had just 14 carries for 47 yards, the senior was uberefficient in completing 23 of 27 passes for 262 yards and a pair of scores.

Derrick Henry will be around, so it's not as if Alabama's running game will be invisible.  Still, Sims has not attempted fewer than 25 passes in a game since Oct. 11, indicating the Tide's willingness to open the game plan for him.  It's no given that Ohio State's offense can remain multidimensional, since Jones is still an unknown, but Sims has stabilized the 'Bama quarterback position better than anyone could have imagined this season.

Top Matchups

Ohio State D-Line vs. Alabama O-Line

If the underdogs are to pull the upset, this is a matchup the Buckeyes must win.  While Alabama does not have any glaring weaknesses on offense, this is Ohio State's biggest strength, and winning in the trenches will allow them to create unfavorable down-and-distance situations to dictate the action to Sims. 

Sophomore defensive end Joey Bosa is the star of this unit, and his matchup against 'Bama right tackle Austin Shepherd is arguably the game's most critical.  A unanimous first-team All-American, Bosa compiled a whopping 13.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss, establishing himself as arguably the best defensive lineman in a season where the position is deeper than usual.  

However, Bosa himself acknowledges that Alabama is a different challenge from the Big 10 lines he has devoured this year:

If Bosa can win against Shepherd and force consistent double-teams, that could open up interior-pressure opportunities for Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington.  The defensive tackle duo combined for 9.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss, and they will thrive if given consistent one-on-one matchups on passing downs.

Though 'Bama has been able to keep Sims clean this year, Ole Miss did have six tackles for loss when the Rebels upset the Tide in the regular season.  There is a precedent for flustering Sims, as rare is it may be, and the Buckeyes are as well-equipped as any team to repeat that feat.

Amari Cooper vs. Doran Grant

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

The best matchup on the perimeter will see Heisman finalist Amari Cooper go up against Ohio State's best corner.  The senior Grant has largely been excellent this year, with his best performance coming when he shadowed Michigan State star receiver Tony Lippett and limited him to five catches for 64 yards.  Current indications are that Cooper will receive similar shadowing treatment:

Grant and the Ohio State secondary have been excellent this season, allowing just 188.2 passing yards per game, 11th best in the country.  But they have yet to see a player of Cooper's caliber, as the junior All-American has scored 14 touchdowns and recorded fewer than 80 receiving yards just twice all season.

Cooper's versatility is his biggest trait, as the Tide will line him up at all three receiver positions (split end, slot and flanker) while also giving him carries on jet sweeps and draws.  Grant can cover him on conventional passing plays, but it's truly a team effort to spy and bracket Cooper.

It's difficult to imagine what kind of coverage the Buckeyes might use.  Playing single-high means that Grant will not receive consistent safety help on Cooper, but two-high coverages could leave them light in the box and vulnerable to Yeldon and Henry.  Regardless of what they choose, this matchup will largely determine Alabama's ability to keep possessions alive and cash in when it reaches the red zone.