College Football Championship 2015: Odds and Projected Winner of 1st Playoff

College football's inaugural playoff is meaningful for a multitude of reasons. For one, there are suddenly three times as many meaningful games. No more talking yourself into BCS-related games that are the difference between finishing sixth and 12th in the final Associated Press poll. I love those games, but the advent of the playoff gives one the opportunity to ignore all but three games.

Because, for once, the true champion will be decided on the field. With respect to TCU and Baylor, the College Football Playoff committee picked the correct four teams. We probably could have gotten a fairer outlook from an eight-team playoff, but it's hard to argue against these being the four best.

Alabama, Oregon and Florida State are givens. Ohio State played itself into that status by taking a baseball bat to Wisconsin's kneecaps. The Buckeyes' gift for their Big Ten championship is a matchup with top-seeded Alabama, a game that gives them the opportunity to prove they belong once and for all.

Urban Meyer's biggest questions begin and end at the quarterback position. Had J.T. Barrett been under center and led Ohio State's 59-0 win over the Badgers, no one would have batted an eye at the Buckeyes' last-second jump. Barrett was a Heisman contender. The Buckeyes turned in one of the most impressive two-way performances of the 2014 season. It would have made perfect sense.

But it wasn't Barrett. It was Cardale Jones, an unproven sophomore making his first start. While Jones performed beyond anyone's wildest expectations, he's still a major question mark. Ezekiel Elliott will not be providing him with a 220-yard cushion against Alabama's front seven, and Nick Saban has long thrived on making life living hell for inexperienced quarterbacks.

"I know against us, he's going to have to do a lot of processing and a lot of thinking," Alabama safety Landon Collins told reporters. "We're definitely going to confuse him as much as possible."

Despite the Buckeyes' greenness under center, neither side expects much to change from Ohio State's perspective. Jones told reporters he'll have as much freedom as Braxton Miller, a veteran who was a preseason Heisman favorite before going down with a season-ending injury. Whether that's true or not is anyone's guess, but Alabama is preparing as if that's the case. 

"Most of their quarterbacks are kind of similar," Collins told reporters. "They run the same scheme offense. We’re just gonna have to watch film on what they do because, I mean, they’re not gonna change the whole offense for one player." 

If Jones performs similarly to Barrett, Ohio State has a chance to put up a fight. The Buckeyes are a legitimate threat on both sides of the ball, one of two teams to rank among the 10 best against the run and pass in Football Outsiders' FEI-plus metric (Alabama being the other).

On the other side of the bracket, Oregon and Florida State know the importance one player can have. Without Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston, neither of their teams are remotely close to Pasadena on New Year's Day. You know, unless they really like parades and Southern California. (Which is totally possible and A-OK in my book.)

Mariota will leave Eugene, Oregon, among the handful of best quarterbacks in college football history. His Heisman stat line has been repeated so many times you'd almost get tired of it if it weren't so great. The junior threw for 3,783 yards and 38 touchdowns against two interceptions, adding another 669 yards and 14 scores on the ground.

What's amazing about Mariota's run is that it's not atypical. He's been nearly this great for three years running. In 1,094 collegiate pass attempts, Mariota has thrown 12 interceptions. For his career, he has 129 total touchdowns and 23 turnovers. 

Senior receiver Keanon Lowe told reporters:

"

Every single day he's not too high, he's not too low. He's a consistent person and treats everyone with respect. He comes to work every day and he works the hardest out of everyone. It's definitely inspiring. You want to to try to outwork Marcus, but you're not going to.

"

To put Mariota's efficiency another way: He has five fewer interceptions in his 1,094 career passes than Winston has in 442 tosses this season.

Winston's 2014 campaign has been defined by its high variance. The polarizing quarterback has at times resembled a more polished, smarter version of the player he was as a freshman. His ACC Championship Game tape against Georgia Tech should be the first his representation touts with NFL scouts. Poised in the pocket, accurate with his ball placement and mistake-free, Winston flashed all the physical tools that could make him a No. 1 overall pick.

Then there were...those other times. Like his abysmal first quarter against rival Florida that nearly cost the Seminoles a playoff berth. Or whatever the hell he was doing in the first half against Louisville. 

Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press

Winston's high-variance performance is a perfect representation of his team. Florida State enters the Rose Bowl with a lucky horseshoe lodged somewhere in some body part on someone. The Seminoles are 7-0 in games decided by one touchdown or less this season, a record that's equal parts enviable and anomalous.

Their penchant for close calls has often been lobbed as a criticism from opposing fans and analysts. Florida State has the odd distinction of being an undefeated team from a Power Five conference that's ranked third in the country—something almost unheard of when there aren't any others in a similar position. For its part, Oregon has been quick to give credit where it's due.

Game	Game	Matchup	Prediction
Sugar Bowl	Sugar Bowl	No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State	Alabama 38, Ohio State 24
Rose Bowl	Rose Bowl	No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State	Florida State 42, Oregon 38
National Championship	National Championship	No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Florida State	Alabama 41, Florida State 23

"While other teams don't finish, they always do," Oregon linebacker Tony Washington said, per Safid Deen of the Tallahassee Democrat. "They always keep coming. They always keep bringing punches. It doesn't matter what the score is. They believe they're going to get it down, and they always do."

We'll get to see whether Florida State can continue its last-second brilliance Thursday. Oregon enters the Rose Bowl with a distinct statistical advantage on both sides of the ball. The Ducks are by most metrics the nation's best or second-best offense, and their defense is much better than advertised, even after Ifo Ekpre-Olomu's injury.

Every objective measure says Oregon should win. But until that lucky horseshoe is located and disposed of, we'll have to see someone beat Florida State to believe it.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter