Cotton Bowl 2015: Previewing Biggest Storylines for Baylor vs. Michigan State
One of the beauties of bowl season is the ability to see two teams from vastly different backgrounds that would not normally get a chance to face each other. The Cotton Bowl presents that exact type of contrast this year, pitting the nation's top-scoring offense in the Baylor Bears against a Michigan State defense that has been one of the country's stingiest under Mark D'Antonio.
Both teams have plenty to prove, as they were two of the three highest-ranked teams to miss the inaugural playoff. Along with TCU, the Bears were victimized by the Big 12's lack of a conference championship game, as the absence of a definitive conference champion may have lost Baylor its playoff berth after Ohio State looked so impressive in the Big Ten championship.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Similarly, Michigan State must re-establish itself as one of the nation's premier defenses. That sounds strange to say, but considering that the Spartans' two toughest opponents, Ohio State and Oregon, carved them up for 47.5 points per game, it's clear that their status as a defensive powerhouse is up for referendum against the nation's toughest offensive test.
For fans looking to catch up on a game that is arguably the best non-playoff bowl, check out a full review of the top storylines headed into the Cotton Bowl Classic.
Pat Narduzzi vs. Art Briles
The game will pit arguably the nation's best offensive and defensive coaches against each other. Narduzzi's patented interior pressure schemes, particularly through A-gap blitzes, will dare Bryce Petty to throw the ball deep. That suits Baylor just fine, however, as it hit a whopping 69 passes of 25 or more yards.
Michigan State's well-documented "Quarters" coverage normally puts a lid on the short and intermediate in-breaking concepts seen throughout the Big Ten, but Baylor's propensity for deep fade and switch routes is perfectly designed to beat that coverage. In fact, after a couple hiccups against Texas and West Virginia, Petty's deep ball has catalyzed Baylor's offensive explosion:
At the same time, Narduzzi's zone blitzes have the potential to scramble Baylor's protection and force Petty to tuck the ball down when his initial read is taken away. The Bears gave up 1.58 sacks per game, 32nd in the country, but the Spartans ranked ninth in the nation with 3.08 sacks per game.
Essentially, much of this game will boil down to whether Michigan State can scheme well enough to eliminate the deep ball while also still generating reasonable pressure on Petty. The greater burden probably lies with Narduzzi given Michigan State's regular-season failures against premier offenses, but the increased prep time should even the playing field between him and Briles.
Underrated Running Games
Despite the attention surrounding quarterbacks Petty and Connor Cook, there's a strong chance this game will be won on the ground behind two very different, but effective rushing attacks. Baylor and Michigan State ranked 23rd and 24th in rushing yards per game, respectively. The teams combined for a whopping 82 rushing touchdowns, with the Bears and Spartans ranking fourth and sixth, respectively, in the country.
Shock Linwood led the Baylor rushing attack, notching 1,226 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on 5.1 yards per carry. At 5'9" and 200 pounds, the All-Big 12 first-teamer is an ideal fit for Baylor's speed-based system, though he notes that Michigan State's size and physicality could present a difficult challenge:
On the Spartans' side, Jeremy Langford has compiled 1,360 yards and 19 scores on 5.5 yards per carry behind Michigan State's gap-blocking power schemes. The Spartans figure to run a bevy of pro-style trap schemes to exploit Baylor's quick and aggressive downhill linebackers, potentially opening up the play-action game for Cook.
In many ways, both running games are well-designed to exploit the opposing defense. So while the quarterbacks naturally receive the spotlight, the performances of Linwood and Langford might have just as significant a say on the game's outcome.
Tony Lippett the X-Factor
The nation has fallen in love with old-school two-way players like Shaq Evans and Shaq Thompson over the past two years, but Michigan State's Lippett deserves mention in that same breath. The 6'3", 185-pound Lippett is listed as a wide receiver, and he is easily the Spartans' most valuable receiver, with 60 catches for 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns.
However, Lippett has also become a starting cornerback, ascending to the No. 2 role on Michigan State's depth chart. Despite Baylor's torrid pace, the current plan calls for Lippett to continue his two-way action, which could result in upwards of 100 snaps:
Clearly the bigger issue will be on defense, where Lippett and fellow starting corner Trae Waynes may not receive consistent safety help due to the plus splits that Baylor frequently employs with its wide receivers. That is, the Bears often line up receivers such as Antwan Goodley and KD Cannon far outside the numbers to purposely isolate them in solo coverage against opposing corners.
Lippett figures to have success against a Bears offense that has allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 96th in the country. However, it's his stamina and ability to hold up in his unnatural position that could determine this game's outcome.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
