Florida State vs. Oregon: Why Ducks Will Prevail in 2015 Rose Bowl

There are similarities between Oregon and Florida State, and there are major differences. Both teams have a Heisman winner at quarterback, for instance, and each program has reached the national championship game in the past four years. 

However, there are major differences as well.

Oregon has been blowing out opponents down the stretch, for instance, while Florida State has managed to stay perfect by the skin of their teeth. 

The differences in this game tend to favor Oregon. Let's break down a few reasons why the Ducks will triumph in this year's Rose Bowl.

Marcus Mariota is the Best Player in College Football

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Winston was awesome last year but has been inconsistent in 2014, a concern for the Seminoles. Mariota, on the other hand, has been absolutely brilliant all season long for the Ducks. His 4,478 yards from scrimmage and 53 total touchdowns are impressive enough, but it helps that he's only thrown two interceptions this season.

Just to be clear, once again, Mariota has only thrown two interceptions this season. That's insane.

There's no questioning that Winston possesses the clutch gene, but the problem for Florida State is that he's performed poorly early in games. His splits paint that portrait pretty clearly.

Half	Completion %	Yards	TD	INT	Rating
1st	62.9	1,790	14	13	137.4
2nd	68.4	1,769	10	4	158.3

Against Oregon, a slow start could quickly turn into a blowout, as the Ducks have one of the nations's most electrifying offenses.

Maybe Winston is the better fourth-quarter quarterback, but Mariota has generally been good for entire games. That will be a major factor in this contest.

Margin of Victory

Florida State has won seven games by seven points or less, while Oregon has beat every opponent by 12 or more points since losing to Arizona on October 2. Florida State has needed to come from behind in nine games to win this year, while Oregon has won nine games by 15 or more points and is third in the nation in points scored per game with 46.3.

The point is pretty simple—if the Seminole comes out flat, the Ducks will steamroll them. Many of the teams on Florida State's schedule weren't able to punish Winston and company for starting slow and failed to fully capitalize on the opportunities presented to them. 

The Ducks don't need opponents to create opportunities for them. They often do that on their own just fine. The Seminoles generally get better on defense as the game goes on, but against Oregon that tendency might just be their undoing.

Oregon Isn't Soft

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Often in matchups like this, the more physical team is able to push around the "finesse" offense, taking them out of their rhythm and beating them up in the process.

However, according to Florida State's defensive coordinator, Oregon is anything but a finesse team.

Per Bill Bender of the Sporting News:

"

[Oregon's recent] success is enough for Florida State defensive coordinator Charles Kelly to dismiss the notion Oregon is a finesse team. Kelly emphasized that not all spread offenses deserve that tag. He said the Ducks run between the tackles—the ‘A’ gaps—as well as anybody. Finesse teams don’t do that. He’s also heard this line in the same place last year.

'To me, finesse is throwing the ball around the perimeter all the time,' Kelly said. 'They move the pile. Going into the national championship game last year, the same thing was said about Auburn.'

"

That translates to the defense, too. The Ducks have held four of their last five opponents to 19 points or less, and they held an Arizona team averaging 34.8 points per game to just 13 in the Pac-12 title game.

The traditional argument against the Ducks is that they are soft, easily pushed around, shaken if a team gets in their face and hits them hard. However, all indications about the current players suggest they are far more than a finesse team. This is a team that will run the ball right at you, one that has played much better defense down the stretch, and one that has seen the offensive line really come together as the season has progressed. 

Florida State might ultimately win the physicality battle in this game, but it's far from a given. Frankly, don't be surprised if the Ducks push the Seminoles around a bit.