Gil Meche: Is He Usable upon His Return?

Fantasy owners are always looking for a late season boost.  Maybe they’ve suffered from injuries and are in need of a little bit of help to fill the gap until their stars are back.  Maybe they have a pitcher who they were depending on who is currently struggling mightily.  Whatever the reason, a replacement is needed.

Enter Gil Meche.

It is easy to overlook the Royals pitcher, who last started on July 11 due to back spasms, thanks to his 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  He had gone 0-4 over his last five starts and in general had just not resembled a usable pitcher in any format. 

There were signs in his peripherals, however, that had hinted towards a potential resurgence.  First of all, his strand rate, which was a below average 68.6 percent.  That has him ranked as the 14th worst rate in baseball and is significantly worse then his career mark of 71.3 percent. 

His luck was due to improve, at least a little bit, which would help to improve that dismal ERA.  Just remember, this is the same pitcher who posted ERAs of 3.67 and 3.98 for the below average Royals, so an improvement should certainly be expected.

The other number that jumps out at you is his walks, currently at 4.08 per nine innings.  That’s the type of number he had been posting while struggling with the Mariners, a pitcher with plenty of talent but had not yet fully tapped into it.  Over the past two seasons, he’s posted marks of:

• 2007 - 2.58 BB/9
• 2008 - 3.12 BB/9

So, which pitcher is he?  Two seasons is a long time to say that it was a fluke.  In fact, he started the season with a 2.61 BB/9 in April, but got progressively worse throughout the season, culminating with a 7.75 BB/9 in July before hitting the DL.

I have to believe that he is going to be able to rediscover the control that he’s shown over the past two years, which in turn will help improve his awful WHIP.

The BABIP is also slightly on the higher side, also contributing to his increased WHIP.  While it is not awful, it is higher then the .297 he’s posted over his career.  He actually has never posted a BABIP above .311.  He’s never going to be a superstar there, posting a 1.30 and 1.32 over the past two seasons, but that clearly is better then what he’s done in 2009.

The rest of his numbers are pretty much right along the lines of what he has been doing in recent years.  Assuming he can improve on these numbers, two of which are strictly luck driven, he should be able to return to the type of pitcher he’s shown capable of the past two seasons.

He’s currently rehabbing at Triple-A, having made his first start on August 3.  He wasn’t great, giving up two earned runs over 3.2 innings, allowing 0 hits and four walks, striking out two.  That just rings true that his control is the ultimate key to his resurgence. 

If he can get that under control and stop handing out free passes, there is no reason that he cannot return to being a useful option in most formats.

I fully believe that will happen, making him worth stashing immediately if you are in need of some help on your pitching staff.  He’s a useful strikeout option (7.25 K/9 this season), to go along with a hopefully improved ERA and WHIP.  Sign me up right now.

What do you think?  Will Meche prove usable this season or do you see him continuing to struggle upon his return?

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