Early 2015 MLB Playoff Team Projections If the Offseason Ended Today
Major League Baseball has had a ridiculously rambunctious offseason so far, what with tons of trades and scores of signings. Now that the book is closing on 2014, it's time to take stock on where teams stand with 2015 upon us.
Despite all the activity, one thing is clear: It's just about anyone's game.
As Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com writes:
"We haven't had a 100-game winner since 2011, and none of the three teams who won more than 94 games in 2014 (the Angels, Orioles and Nationals) were even playoff clubs the year before. All three of those clubs, as well as the Dodgers (the only other team to win north of 90), failed to reach the World Series.
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From 2013 to 2014, only three division winners repeated (Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers), and just two other clubs made it back to October (Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates).
In other words, half of the teams who reached the postseason in 2013 did so again this past year.
And lest we forget, the two World Series participants, the Kansas City Royals and eventual champion San Francisco Giants, were not only non-repeaters, but also gained entry via the wild card.
All of which is to say that getting to the playoffs—or even the Fall Classic—is a legitimate possibility for almost all of the sport's 30 clubs.
Here, though, are the 10 who appear poised to make that happen in 2015, along with notable roster additions and subtractions. At least, at this very moment, as the calendar is being flipped.
AL East Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
1 of 10
Key Additions: 3B Josh Donaldson; C Russell Martin; OF Michael Saunders; 1B/DH Justin Smoak; RHP Marco Estrada
Key Subtractions: OF Melky Cabrera; OF Colby Rasmus; 3B Brett Lawrie; 1B/DH Adam Lind; RHP Casey Janssen; LHP J.A. Happ; RHP Brandon Morrow; 1B/3B Juan Francisco; OF Anthony Gose
Many forget that the Toronto Blue Jays actually looked like the team to beat in what was a wide-open AL East as last July began. The Baltimore Orioles, of course, overtook the Jays and went on to win the division handily by 12 games, while Toronto dropped into third place behind the New York Yankees.
But the Jays have made a pair of acquisitions that make them look a lot better at this stage than either the Orioles, who have been relatively quiet so far, or the Yankees, whose aging, injury-prone roster isn't getting any younger or healthier.
Signing catcher Russell Martin and trading for third baseman Josh Donaldson, two players who do great work on both sides of the ball, without giving up any of Toronto's very top youngsters or prospects makes for a neat trick pulled by general manager Alex Anthopoulos.
Adding those two to the dangerous duo of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, who have as much power as anyone in the game, makes for a scary Jays lineup.
The club will be relying heavily on a quartet of young, up-and-coming arms in right-handers Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and Aaron Sanchez and lefty Daniel Norris. But if one or more of them takes a leap, Toronto has the talent to end what is now the longest current active postseason-less streak in the majors at 21 seasons.
AL Central Winner: Detroit Tigers
2 of 10
Key Additions: OF Yoenis Cespedes; RHP Alfredo Simon; RHP Shane Greene; OF Anthony Gose; RHP Joel Hanrahan; RHP Alex Wilson
Key Subtractions: RHP Max Scherzer; RHP Rick Porcello; OF Torii Hunter; RHP Joba Chamberlain; RHP Jim Johnson; LHP Phil Coke; INF Eugenio Suarez; 2B Devon Travis; LHP Robbie Ray
The Detroit Tigers have owned this division for four years running, but for the first time since 2010, they look a little long in the tooth, if not a little vulnerable too.
This is a team that needs its on-paper talent and big names to perform up to expectations yet again. That puts a lot on perennial MVP candidate (and two-time winner) Miguel Cabrera, the re-signed Victor Martinez and new ace David Price, especially since neither J.D. Martinez's out-of-nowhere 2014 nor shell-of-his-former-self Justin Verlander is all that easy to trust.
After all, losing two-fifths of the rotation in Rick Porcello (via trade) and Max Scherzer, the top free agent on the market—who GM Dave Dombrowski has indicated isn't coming back, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press—is a lot to overcome.
Any sort of slip from the core players or a repeat of the late-inning meltdowns from closer Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria and Co., and the Tigers will have to do more than fight off the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox and reigning AL champion Kansas City Royals—they'll have to fight to keep up with them.
Here's Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required) on what could make for a wild Central:
"The Indians might have the deepest pitching staff, headed by Corey Kluber. The Royals are the defending American League champions, and if Eric Hosmer’s late-season offensive burst becomes a habit, Kansas City is fully capable of making the postseason again. And the White Sox are probably the winter’s most improved team, augmented by the signings of Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson and Melky Cabrera. Even the Twins should be more competitive, given the addition of Ervin Santana and the maturation of their young players.
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For now, though, the division is the Tigers' to lose until they actually do.
AL West Winner: Los Angeles Angels
3 of 10
Key Additions: LHP Andrew Heaney; OF/DH Matt Joyce; 2B Josh Rutledge
Key Subtractions: 2B Howie Kendrick; RHP Kevin Jepsen; RHP Jason Grilli
The Los Angeles Angels posted the best record in baseball with 98 wins in 2014, and they won the AL West by 10 games over the Oakland Athletics, who looked like the best team around as of mid-July.
Much of that success came from a dynamite offense that led the sport with 773 runs scored, thanks to MVP Mike Trout and still-potent Albert Pujols. The lineup could be just as strong in 2015, especially if Josh Hamilton can be even semi-healthy and semi-productive after a year wrecked by injuries.
The Angels, though, really could use an infusion of youth, which is where the likes of slugger C.J. Cron and lefty Andrew Heaney (acquired in exchange for longtime second baseman Howie Kendrick) come into play, with the former providing some punch at the plate and the latter some upside on the mound.
Speaking of pitchers, that's the area that could give L.A. most of its problems, as a lot is riding on the return to health of Garrett Richards, who was a Cy Young candidate until a torn knee ended his 2014 in August.
Otherwise, the Angels are going to be relying way too heavily on declining vets like Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson or Rookie of the Year runner-up Matt Shoemaker, who can't possibly go 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA again.
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AL Wild Card No. 1: Boston Red Sox
4 of 10
Key Additions: OF Hanley Ramirez; 3B Pablo Sandoval; RHP Rick Porcello; LHP Wade Miley; RHP Justin Masterson; C Ryan Hanigan
Key Subtractions: OF Yoenis Cespedes; RHP Rubby De La Rosa; RHP Allen Webster; C David Ross
As currently constituted, the Boston Red Sox don't quite have the personnel, primarily in pitching, to pull their worst-to-first trick for the second time in four seasons. But they have enough talent, both newcomers and holdovers, to get back to October again.
The splurge to land Hanley Ramirez, who will play left field for the first time, and Pablo Sandoval, who will handle third base, makes the Red Sox's offense instantly better.
And there are three still relatively new players who have all kinds of upside in shortstop Xander Bogaerts and outfielders Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo, who signed for $72.5 million out of Cuba late in the season.
If Boston can get those three to play anywhere close to their potential while also getting the usual production from David Ortiz and healthy seasons from Dustin Pedroia and Shane Victorino, this offense should be dynamic and significantly improved from last year, when the team finished tied for 11th in the AL in runs.
The men on the mound, meanwhile, remain a bit of a weaker link, but at least GM Ben Cherington has solidified the staff by adding three proven innings-eaters in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson.
Should the Sox's deep farm system provide a boost or be used to concoct a deal for an ace (Cole Hamels? Johnny Cueto?), Boston might need to be bumped ahead of the Jays in the East.
AL Wild Card No. 2: Seattle Mariners
5 of 10
Key Additions: DH Nelson Cruz; OF Justin Ruggiano; LHP J.A. Happ
Key Subtractions: OF Michael Saunders; 1B/DH Corey Hart; 1B/DH Kendrys Morales; OF Chris Denorfia; RHP Chris Young
The Indians, White Sox, Yankees and Orioles comprise some of the main competition for the AL's final playoff position, but it's the Seattle Mariners taking the second play-in game spot as of right now.
The core of this club is strong, thanks to stalwarts Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma leading the five-man and Kyle Seager now teamed with 2014 arrival Robinson Cano and 2015 newcomer Nelson Cruz.
"I want to win, you know? That’s my goal," Cruz said at his introductory press conference, via Nick Eaton of SeattlePI.com. "I've been in the playoffs a few times. I've been in the World Series a few times, and I think we have what it takes to go to the World Series and win it. That made the decision [to sign with Seattle] more easy."
What the Mariners need to make it to where they haven't been since 2001—that is, the playoffs—is a strong and, more importantly, healthy campaign from either (or ideally, both) righty Taijuan Walker and/or lefty James Paxton.
Of course, a full year from midseason acquisition Austin Jackson should help too, as would any sort of development from former top prospects outfielder Dustin Ackley, catcher Mike Zunino and shortstop Brad Miller.
The Mariners missed out on October by but a game last season, and their window to win is right now.
NL East Winner: Washington Nationals
6 of 10
Key Additions: N/A
Key Subtractions: 1B Adam LaRoche; 2B Asdrubal Cabrera; RHP Rafael Soriano; OF Steven Souza; LHP Ross Detwiler
No division seems as open and shut as does the NL East, which the Washington Nationals won by an MLB-best 17 games in 2014 and look poised to do rather easily yet again next year—even though they have yet to make any significant adds.
The lineup is deep, dynamic and dangerous, what with leadoff man Denard Span, perennial 20-20 candidate Ian Desmond, steady Jayson Werth, hopefully healthy Ryan Zimmerman and breakout stud Anthony Rendon. Oh, and maybe, juuust maybe, 2015 could be "the year" for one Bryce Harper after his impressive postseason.
The bullpen lost Rafael Soriano, but he had fallen out of the closer role by the end of last season, anyway, and veterans Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard are two of the best late-gamers around.
Plus, Washington is going to be tough to top as long as it still has arguably the best rotation in baseball lined up in Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark.
Sorry, Mets, Marlins and Braves fans, but your teams are fighting for a wild-card spot at best. The Nationals own the East.
NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
7 of 10
Key Additions: OF Jason Heyward; RHP Jordan Walden; 1B/3B Mark Reynolds; RHP Matt Belisle
Key Subtractions: RHP Shelby Miller; OF Oscar Taveras; INF Daniel Descalso
The St. Louis Cardinals made their one big move very early in the offseason, swapping mid-rotation righty Shelby Miller for the steady Jason Heyward, who may yet have another gear as he enters his age-25 campaign.
GM John Mozeliak could do nothing else the rest of the winter, and the Cardinals still would have a very good shot at making it to October for a fifth consecutive season, which would tie them with the Tigers for the longest active streak should both clubs get there again.
St. Louis will need more of the same from its consistent, heart-and-soul players in catcher Yadier Molina, right-hander Adam Wainwright and outfielder Matt Holliday.
That said, those three form an aging trio that now must be supported even more so by steady third baseman Matt Carpenter and shortstop Jhonny Peralta, as well as up-and-coming first baseman Matt Adams, second baseman Kolten Wong and righties Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez.
If the youngsters take the next step, the Cardinals' drive for five in a row will be on.
NL West Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 10
Key Additions: SS Jimmy Rollins; 2B Howie Kendrick; RHP Brandon McCarthy; C Yasmani Grandal; LHP Brett Anderson; OF Chris Heisey; RHP Joel Peralta; RHP Chris Hatcher
Key Subtractions: OF Matt Kemp; SS Hanley Ramirez; 2B Dee Gordon; RHP Josh Beckett; RHP Dan Haren; RHP Roberto Hernandez; RHP Kevin Correia; RHP Jamey Wright; RHP Brian Wilson; RHP Chad Billingsley
It's been quite an offseason already for the brand new front office, headed by President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman (formerly of the Tampa By Rays) and GM Farhan Zaidi (formerly of the Oakland Athletics). Heck, just look at the "Key Additions" and "Key Subtractions" up top.
The decision-makers have been extremely busy remaking a Los Angeles Dodgers team that has won the past two NL West titles but also sported a bloated payroll and plenty of excess personnel.
While the trades of Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon, as well as the loss of Hanley Ramirez in free agency, leave the roster with a much different and more streamlined feel, it's hard to say at the moment whether the Dodgers actually are better than they have been in 2013-14, at least in terms of talent.
"We obviously traded away some very good players," Friedman said via Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports after his trade fest during the winter meetings in December. "But we feel with the totality of the moves ourselves, we made ourselves a better team."
With Kemp out of the picture, a lot more of the offensive burden will fall on the mercurial Yasiel Puig, as well as young and exciting—albeit unproven—Joc Pederson, the rookie center fielder who put together a 30-30 season at Triple-A. And despite being veterans, Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick make up an entirely new middle infield that will have to adjust, too.
The pitching is as strong as ever, thanks to reigning Cy Young Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke atop the rotation, followed by steady Hyun-Jin Ryu and newbies Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, both of whom could be ideal No. 4/5 starters if they can manage to stay healthy.
The NL West rival San Francisco Giants just won it all and can hold that over the Dodgers, but the champs haven't done all that much and still have some holes to fill. If they don't, L.A. could make a run at three consecutive division crowns.
NL Wild Card No. 1: Pittsburgh Pirates
9 of 10
Key Additions: RHP A.J. Burnett; C Francisco Cervelli; 1B Corey Hart; INF Sean Rodriguez; LHP Antonio Bastardo
Key Subtractions: C Russell Martin; RHP Edinson Volquez; 1B Ike Davis; 1B Gaby Sanchez; LHP Justin Wilson; SS Clint Barmes
Having officially turned the corner from laughingstock to model franchise with two straight postseason appearances, the Pittsburgh Pirates are likely to be better than you think yet again in 2015.
With center fielder Andrew McCutchen, the 2013 MVP and 2014 finalist who is one of the five best players in the game, the Pirates have a stud in his prime who knows how to lead this squad.
Beyond that, Pittsburgh should benefit from a full year of health for ace-in-the-making Gerrit Cole and raw but super-skilled outfielder Gregory Polanco in his second season.
The return of righty A.J. Burnett, who turns 38 in January but who excelled with the Pirates in 2012 and 2013, should only help matters too. Same goes for a more consistent Starling Marte, the left fielder who was one of the best players in baseball over the second half, along with out-of-nowhere savior Josh Harrison.
The big question right now is how much the loss of backstop Russell Martin will be felt now that he's in Toronto. After all, the Pirates only stopped their record losing-season streak once he came to town.
But this team has the talent already on the 25-man roster to reach October for a third straight time, and there's a good chance the Pirates will get some young midseason reinforcements in the form of top prospects like right-handers Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham and possibly Tyler Glasnow, as well as first baseman-outfielder Josh Bell and infielder Alen Hanson.
NL Wild Card No. 2: San Diego Padres
10 of 10
Key Additions: OF Matt Kemp; OF Justin Upton; OF Wil Myers; C Derek Norris; 3B Will Middlebrooks; RHP Brandon Morrow; RHP Shawn Kelley; SS Clint Barmes
Key Subtractions: RHP Jesse Hahn; SS Everth Cabrera; C Rene Rivera; C Ryan Hanigan; RHP Joe Wieland; INF Jace Peterson
The defending champion Giants, Marlins, Mets, Reds and, yes, even the Cubs are some other teams in the mix for what could be a wild wild-card race in the Senior Circuit.
But the pick here is the San Diego Padres. Because, well, why not?
New GM A.J. Preller has been on the job barely five months, and already he has completely rebuilt the lineup, which was historically bad in 2014.
If outfield imports Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers, as well as All-Star catcher Derek Norris, can make the offensively inept Padres into even an average club with the bats, that will be a huge boost to San Diego's playoff hopes.
And there's still a chance that Preller isn't finished yet. He has excess outfielders (Cameron Maybin, Will Venable, Seth Smith and Carlos Quentin, anyone?) and hasn't given up any of his very tippy-top prospects (Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe, Matt Wisler and Rymer Liriano), despite all of the wheeling and dealing.
The Padres recently have been linked to Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels, according to Ryan Lawrence of Philly.com, and adding him to the haul of talent already in tow would make San Diego an even more likely contender.
But even as currently constituted—which is the point of this column—the Padres look like a potential postseason team in 2015, anyway.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
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