Denver Broncos Playoffs: Analyzing Their Potential Divisional Round Matchups

The Denver Broncos will host a playoff game in the Divisional Round of the playoffs for the third straight year. This time, however, they're in a different situation.

After their first four-loss season in three years and an embarrassing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16, the Broncos aren't entering the playoffs with much confidence. They don't have the first seed, and they will potentially have to go through the New England Patriots on the road to win the AFC.

In 2012, the Broncos won 11 straight games by at least eight points before bowing out in their first playoff game. In 2013, they won their last two regular-season games by 24 and 20 points and their first two playoff games by seven and 10 points before losing 43-8 in the Super Bowl.

This year, they were humbled by the Patriots and the St. Louis Rams in 22-point and 15-point losses. After that, they strung together tight wins over the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills and slightly more convincing wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers, but then they ran into the Bengals.

And, once again, they were humbled.

Still, after a blowout win over the Oakland Raiders, the Broncos have a bye to regroup and prepare for their second-round opponent, which will either be the Bengals, the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Indianapolis Colts.

Which matchup would be best for the Broncos, and which matchup leaves the greatest possibility for an upset?

Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver hasn't played Pittsburgh since 2012, when Manning's first game as a Bronco ended with a 31-19 victory that was closer than the score indicates.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 1-3 against Manning, but his lone win came as an upset in the playoffs. Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl rings and a 10-4 playoff record.

After two years of missing the playoffs, the 11-5 Steelers are back. Pittsburgh has beaten contenders such as Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City and Baltimore, and it's won four straight games.

The Steelers don't have the same dominant defense that powered them to their titles in 2005 and 2008. However, they have a better offense, powered by dominant receiver Antonio Brown and powerful running back Le'Veon Bell.

Bell suffered a hyperextended knee Sunday night against the Bengals, and according to NFL.com, he's unlikely to suit up Saturday night. If Bell can't go, Pittsburgh would need to rely on Josh Harris, who has just 16 yards on nine carries in limited action.

In other words, Pittsburgh would be much easier to beat.

As for their defense, it's 20th overall. Its pass defense is a concern, as only five teams have allowed more passing yardage. Pittsburgh is sixth in total run defense, but C.J. Anderson, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, would present a challenge.

If the teams were to play, it would likely be a high-scoring affair. In 2012, Manning posted a 129.2 passer rating against a Steelers secondary that still has three of the starters from that game. 

But now, Manning has Emmanuel Sanders, the former Steeler who caught 101 passes this year and can go deep, and Wes Welker, his safety valve in the slot. With Demaryius Thomas, who finished second in receiving yards, and a rested Julius Thomas, Denver's passing offense could give the Steelers trouble.

On defense, the Broncos are first in opponents yards per passing attempt with 6.0. With Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, who, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), both placed in the top 10 in yards per cover snap, Pittsburgh's high-octane offense could struggle.

Denver has the secondary to stop Pittsburgh's offense, and with its second-ranked run defense, it can handle Bell or whomever Pittsburgh starts. Pittsburgh will score, but it's not going to dominate offensively.

Even if Anderson struggles against Pittsburgh's sound run defense, Manning should generate enough offense to handle the Steelers. Pittsburgh would easily present the greatest challenge, but Denver can take care of business.

Prediction: Denver 27, Pittsburgh 24

Cincinnati Bengals

Out of the three teams the Broncos could play in the second round, the Bengals are the only one to have beaten the Broncos this year.

Cincinnati’s 37-28 triumph over the Broncos shows that the Bengals could beat the Broncos again, even if it is unlikely. In fact, Manning has not lost to the same team twice in one season (including the playoffs) since 2007.

Still, Cincinnati seemed to figure out Manning by forcing him to throw four interceptions. The Bengals took a 20-7 lead and forced the Broncos to throw about 70 percent of the time, which threw the Broncos off.

C.J. Anderson did average 4.6 yards per carry, however, which shows that the Broncos could carve up the Bengals run defense. By giving Anderson the ball more against Cincinnati’s weak run defense, Denver could control the game.

Also, Andy Dalton is easily the worst of the three potential quarterbacks the Broncos could play. He’s 0-3 in the playoffs with just one touchdown and six interceptions.

A.J. Green didn’t catch a pass in the teams’ first meeting, and with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris playing tremendously, it’s unreasonable to expect much from Green, Mohamed Sanu or the rest of the Bengals.

As long as the Broncos can stop running back Jeremy Hill, whom they did reasonably well against after surrendering a long touchdown run, they will be fine. Cincinnati was able to beat the Broncos earlier in the year, but a similar outcome in the postseason is unlikely.

Prediction: Denver 27, Cincinnati 13

Indianapolis Colts

Last season, the Colts were one of three teams to beat the Broncos, and this year, the Colts fell just short of beating Denver.

However, in a game that ended up vaulting the Broncos into second place, the Broncos fended off a furious rally from Andrew Luck and the Colts to win 31-24. Indianapolis lost to Denver and to Philadelphia in Week 2, but it then won 11 of 14 to clinch the AFC South.

Still, the Colts haven’t proved that they can beat good teams. Their most impressive win of the season came against the Bengals, when they won 27-0. However, they are 2-4 against playoff teams, with their only wins coming against the AFC’s two wild-card teams.

Indianapolis lacks a running game and quality weapons for Andrew Luck. The Colts lead the league in dropped passes and, with the exception of dynamic receiver T.Y. Hilton, are devoid of playmakers.

Manning carved up the Colts for three touchdowns in Denver’s Week 1 victory, hitting Julius Thomas on all three for a passer rating of 111.9. An ankle injury has limited Thomas lately, but the bye week will provide him with an adequate opportunity to return to health.

The Broncos struggled to run the ball against the Colts, but that was before Anderson’s emergence. Indianapolis’ run defense is just slightly below average, but Anderson’s average of 4.7 yards per carry suggests that he can handle the Colts.

As for the Colts pass defense, cornerback Vontae Davis has earned remarkably high grades from PFF. However, the Colts lack the secondary depth to contain Julius and Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker.

Indianapolis almost won in Denver, but its poor performance against quality teams indicates that it might struggle against the powerful Broncos. Luck’s a talented quarterback, but he lacks the weapons around him to seriously challenge the Broncos.

Prediction: Broncos 31, Colts 20

The Likelihood of Facing Each Team

Since the Steelers are the third seed in the AFC, they simply have to win to force a second-round matchup with the Broncos. It’s reasonable to expect the 11-5 Steelers to handle the Ravens, who have a horrendous secondary, even without Bell, so a matchup with Pittsburgh is most likely.

If Baltimore knocks off Pittsburgh, the Broncos would face either Cincinnati or Indianapolis. The Colts beat the Bengals 27-0 earlier this year and are at home, but they’ve been struggling lately. They are also 2-4 against playoff teams.

I expect Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to win, which would set up games between Denver and Pittsburgh and between New England and Cincinnati.

Summary

The Broncos can and should beat all of these teams, but the Steelers present a much greater challenge than the Bengals or the Colts.

Pittsburgh’s two-dimensional offense would be hard for the Broncos to handle. Roethlisberger is performing better than Dalton or Luck, and his offense is surrounded with the most talent.

If Denver does play Pittsburgh, expect to see points scored from both teams. If the Broncos play the Bengals or Colts, it’s likely going to be more of a one-sided affair.

However, as the Broncos have learned in the past, taking any opponent lightly can result in a costly loss.