Too Brave a Hope? Why The Playoffs Are Doubtful For The Atlanta Braves

The 2009 version of the Atlanta Braves have proved to be an enigma. One week you think they have turned things around, and then the next week they lose a series they should win.

After all, the team that started out after the All-Star break winning six of seven games have won just six of their last 13 games.

Currently the Braves sit in third place in the NL East, six and a half games behind the Phillies and in fifth place, five games back in the Wild Card.

This is the point in the season that every Braves' fan starts to wonder whether their favorite team has any chance of making the playoffs.

As difficult as it is for me to admit in early August, the Braves have very little chance of making the playoffs this season.

Consider this: In the 20 games the Braves have played since the All-Star break they have gained exactly one game on the Wild Card leaders and have lost half a game on the Phillies. With only 54 games left to play this season, it leaves very little room to make a run.

Let's first consider the Braves chances of winning the Wild Card. Right now the Braves sit five games back in the Wild Card race behind four teams: San Fransisco, Colorado, St. Louis, and Florida.

In the previous seven seasons, only the 2004 Houston Astros were able to overcome such a deficit to win the Wild Card.  Not one of the other 13 Wild Card winners in the last seven seasons faced more than a four game deficit as of August 6, and none climb over more than two teams to get there.

Checking with Baseball Prospectus doesn't give the Braves much hope either. They calculate odds for each team making the Playoffs by running thousands of computer simulations and they give the Braves a two percent chance of winning the Wild Card this year.

In my opinion, the Braves best hope for making the Playoffs still lays in the NL East. Despite being in third place in the NL East and further from the front than the Wild Card, the schedule helps the Braves here. Of their final 54 games, 19 are against either the Phillies of the Marlins.

Unfortunately, history has not been kind to the Braves' hopes in the division either. Not one of the last 42 Division winners has conquered a deficit of more than five games at this point in the season to win the division.

Can the Braves make history and come back to make the Playoffs? While unlikely, I will be rooting them on as hard as I can.

What do you think? Am I right on or am I crazy? Comment below and let me know.