College Football Playoffs 2015: Latest Odds and Predictions for Semifinals 2015
For the first time in history, college football's highest level will have a semifinal. The Rose and Sugar Bowls will take on even greater significance as they become the final proving grounds for the two teams who will play for the national championship.
The playoff committee couldn't have asked for a more intriguing field of contenders, either.
Kicking off the tournament festivities will be the Rose Bowl matchup of Florida State vs. Oregon. In a rare occurrence, two Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks will face off as Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston try to lead their teams to the title game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Rounding out New Year's Day will be a matchup of two traditional college football powers. Ohio State and Alabama have a long history of being top powers in college football. Their Sugar Bowl matchup will add another chapter to both schools' storied traditions.
Below is a look at the key (non-quarterback) player for each team along with the latest odds and a prediction as to who will wind up playing for the national championship.
Oregon vs. Florida State
When: Jan. 1, 2015 at 5 p.m. ET
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Line: Oregon -9, per Odds Shark
Key Player for Florida State: Dalvin Cook, RB, Fr.
Yes, Winston will be key for the Seminoles. If the 2013 version of their star quarterback can show up, this is a different ballgame. But the key factor for Florida State could be freshman running back Dalvin Cook.
The 200-pound back has become a serious staple of the offense and should play a big role in the Noles game plan against the Ducks. Oregon's run defense is nothing special. The 4.12 yards per carry it allows is good for just 57th in nation, according to CFBStats.com.
That means that Florida State can help itself out by utilizing a steady dosage of Cook. Head coach Jimbo Fisher and Co. turned to the freshman 31 times in the run game against Georgia Tech en route to an ACC championship. He rewarded them with 177 yards and a touchdown.
He also had five receptions for 43 yards for good measure.
In an offense returning playmakers from a national champion, it could be the newcomer who makes the biggest impact for Florida State.
Key Player for Oregon: Chris Seisay, CB, Fr.
The Oregon offense can score. That's a given since the offense has posted 45 points per game this season. The question for the Ducks is whether they can stop the Seminoles from keeping up.
In order to do that, Oregon will need a big performance from an unfamiliar name in Chris Seisay. The redshirt freshman cornerback will be called upon to do that now that All-American cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu has been sidelined for the playoff with a knee injury.
Seisay isn't completely inexperienced, though. He has been involved in the defensive rotation throughout the season and was heavily involved in the second half of the Michigan State game. His 6'1", 187-pound frame gave the Ducks a bigger option to work with in the secondary to go against the Spartans' tall receiving corps.
Oregon defensive backs coach John Neal talked about his confidence level in Seisay even then, via Andrew Greif of The Oregonian:
"You know what happens sometimes is you're with guys for long periods of times and they get to play and you know in the back of your mind, 'If I put that guy in...'
I had (safety) John Boyett a long time ago and when TJ (Ward) got hurt, I put John Boyett in and I didn't blink an eye. I knew he'd do well and I feel the same way about Chris. He'll play more and more, he's a good player.
"
Fast-forward all the way to January, and Seisay will now be called upon to do even more. The Noles aren't nearly as deep at the receiver position as they were last season. After Rashad Greene and tight end Nick O'Leary, Florida State doesn't have any one receiver who stands out above the rest.
However, it's likely that Winston will be looking to find the new starter and test him early and often. Whether Seisay is ready or not could be a huge factor in the early going.
Prediction
It's easy to see why Oregon is a somewhat heavy favorite here—perception.
Florida State has done itself no favors in the eye test this season. The Noles have had a bad habit of playing down to competition, with close games against the likes of North Carolina State and Florida serving as prime examples.
Meanwhile, all Oregon has done is thrash opponents. Even the one team that defeated it didn't stand a chance in a rematch. The Ducks destroyed Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game, 51-13.
However, the one number that doesn't align with Oregon being a heavy favorite in the game: zero. That's how many losses Florida State has this season—and last season for that matter. No matter how ugly, the Seminoles have always found a way to win.
That's why it's difficult to envision them getting completely blown out of the water by Oregon.
Oregon 38, Florida State 34
Ohio State vs. Alabama
When: Jan. 1, 2015 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Line: Alabama -9, via Odds Shark
Key Player for Ohio State: Devin Smith, WR, Sr.
The 2014 Alabama defense isn't as ironclad as previous incarnations. If there's one unit that has proved it can be tested, it's the secondary. The Tide have allowed numerous wide receivers to have big days if those teams had the offensive lines to buy the quarterbacks enough time to throw it deep.
| Jimmie Hunt | Missouri | 6 | 169 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | Auburn | 5 | 206 | 2 |
| D'haquille Williams | Auburn | 7 | 121 | 0 |
| Kevin White | West Virginia | 9 | 143 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | Ole Miss | 3 | 74 | 0 |
The perfect receiver to disrupt the Alabama defense? Ohio State's Devin Smith. The senior wideout is among the best deep threats in the country. As Kevin Weidl of ESPN points out, he's a great combination of athleticism and ball skills:
Smith is coming off an all-time performance against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. With Cardale Jones making his first start at quarterback, the receiver pulled in four passes for 137 yards and three touchdowns.
With Alabama's defense already prone to giving up big plays in the passing game, it wouldn't be a shock to see Smith in the end zone at least once on New Year's Day.
Key Player for Alabama: Austin Shepherd, OT, Sr.
Alabama might be known for its wealth of talent along the defensive line, but it's the recruit that got away who could cause their own offense trouble in the Sugar Bowl. Joey Bosa has been a man among boys at defensive end for Ohio State.
The sophomore has been a one-man wrecking crew this season. He's anchored the defensive front with 20 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. Now, he'll face one of the top offensive lines in the country.
As the right tackle, senior offensive lineman Austin Shepherd will be the one primarily responsible for slowing Bosa down. It's a task he's diligently preparing for.
"I don't really think about who I'm playing against," Shepherd said, via Charlie Potter of 247Sports. "I kind of approach everybody the same way, so I'm not really thinking about the accolades. I'm just trying to look at how I can beat him every play."
Shepherd's mindset may sound a bit arrogant, but it's an approach that's worked for him and his fellow offensive linemen. The Tide's O-line has seen quite a few talented pass-rushers in the SEC this season with strong results.
| Marquis Haynes, Ole Miss | 7.5 (8) | 0 |
| Myles Garrett, Texas A&M | 11 (t2) | 0 |
| Curt Maggitt, Tennessee | 11 (t2) | 1 |
| Derek Barnett, Tennessee | 10 (4) | 0 |
| Preston Smith, Mississippi State | 9 (5) | 1 |
| Shane Ray, Missouri | 12.5 (1) | .5 |
| Markus Golden Missouri | 8.5 (6) | 0 |
| Total | 69.5 | 2.5 |
Shutting down Bosa will be another challenge altogether, but Shepherd is a proven commodity with the ability to test Bosa in a way that few have this season.
Keeping Bosa away from quarterback Blake Sims and the Alabama stable of running backs will be vital for Bama to beat the Buckeyes. It'll be up to Shepherd to lead the way.
Prediction
This is another game in which the line appears to have been impacted by perception. The Buckeyes might be a nationally recognized brand, but it can also claim just one bowl victory in the last seven years and three in the last decade.
That's an established trend. However, there's reason to believe it could be bucked this year—or at the very least, they could come much closer than the wide spread would have you believe.
The Buckeyes sit at No. 2 in Football Outsiders' F-Plus rankings and No. 3 in ESPN's Football Power Index metric. Of course, Alabama sits at No. 1 and No. 2 in those metrics, respectively, but the fact remains that there is objective data that points to these two teams being equal.
That's enough to show that Ohio State has what it takes to make this game interesting. Paired with Devin Smith's ability to get behind the Alabama secondary, the Buckeyes have an opportunity to strike with big plays and even take an early lead.
Still, this Alabama team has shown that it doesn't mind playing from behind. The Tide have won defensive battles along with shootouts. Expect them to come out on top in a game that is closer than expected.
Alabama 28, Ohio State 23
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
