Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Complete Week 17 Preview for Green Bay

It doesn’t get any better than this—a Week 17 showdown with a divisional title and first-round bye on the line.

The Green Bay Packers (11-4) will be gunning for their fourth straight NFC North crown when they square off with the Detroit Lions (11-4) at Lambeau Field on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox).

On the other end of the spectrum, Detroit will be trying to exorcise the demons of years past. The Lions haven’t won at Green Bay since 1991, and they haven’t won the division since 1993, when it was the NFC Central.

And, there’s this from the MetroWest Daily’s Tim Whelan Jr.:

"

Matthew Stafford's #Lions now 0-16 on the road against winning teams.

— Tim Whelan Jr. (@thattimwhelan) November 23, 2014"

Stafford will be playing without his starting center, Dominic Raiola, who is serving a one-game suspension for intentionally stomping Bears defensive tackle Ego Ferguson in Detroit’s Week 15 win at Chicago.

"

Lions center Dominic Raiola is suspended for Sunday's game at Green Bay. Matthew Stafford will miss him: pic.twitter.com/cfKKcL2qfy

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 23, 2014"

The Packers have been great at home all season (7-0, 20.7-point average margin of victory). A win on Sunday ensures at least one home playoff game and only two wins to reach the Super Bowl.

Giddy up.

Week 16 Recap

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

During a players-only meeting the week leading up to Tampa Bay, six recently named playoff captains—Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Julius Peppers, Morgan Burnett, Randall Cobb and Jarrett Bush—spoke to the team about about understanding the opportunity ahead of it, Nelson told Weston Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

But for anyone watching the first few offensive series of the Packers’ 20-3 win over the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium last Sunday, it looked like the message had fallen on deaf ears.

After a three-and-out on the first possession, Rodgers was sacked and lost a fumble on the second, suffering a calf injury in the process. He was visibly limping for the rest of the contest, and his mobility outside the pocket was severely limited.

Rodgers was battling the flu in addition to his calf strain, but he battled through and had an efficient, winning performance:

"

#Packers QB Aaron Rodgers said he pulled his calf on 5th play of game. He finished 31-40 with 318 yards, 1 TD and 108.1 rating anyway.

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) December 21, 2014"

But the MVP of this game was the defense, which sacked Josh McCown seven times, intercepted him once and allowed just 109 total yards, easily the lowest number of the season.

"

#Packers defense allowed no TDs in their past two games. It's the first time they've done that in consecutive games since 2009 season.

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) December 21, 2014"

The Bucs didn’t record a first down until their sixth possession. Running backs Doug Martin and Charles Sims totaled 16 rushing yards on 14 attempts, thanks in large part to a stellar performance from Burnett. And McCown was harassed by Clay Matthews (2.5 sacks) and Julius Peppers (two sacks) all game long.

News and Notes

Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

Home Sweet Home

If the Packers can win on Sunday, they’ll do something only five Packers teams have ever done, according to Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: go undefeated at home.

It happened most recently in 2011, when the team suffered its only regular-season loss at Kansas City, then lost a home divisional playoff game to the Giants, the eventual Super Bowl champions. 

A No. 1 Stunner

There are only three possible seeds in which the Packers can fall after the dust has settled from Week 17, according to the Sentinel’s Matt Montgomery. Green Bay has a 56.3 percent chance at the No. 2 seed, a 32.2 percent change at the No. 6 seed and an 11.5 percent change at the No. 1 seed.

If the Packers lose to Detroit, they are automatically relegated to the No. 6 seed. If the Packers win and the Seahawks fall to the Rams (Seattle is a 13.5-point favorite, per Odds Shark), they would earn the No. 1 seed. But the likeliest scenario, according to the odds, is a Packers win and Seahawks win, with the Seahawks getting the top seed and the Packers with a first-round bye at the No. 2 seed. 

You Down with MVP? 

While Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has vaulted himself atop the leaderboard in QBR and passer rating, the metrics still favor Aaron Rodgers to win the 2014 NFL MVP award, writes Sharon Katz of ESPN Stats & Information.

Katz points to a stat related to QBR, QB PAA, which accounts for efficiency and the number of plays involved (QBR solely relies on efficiency), in making her case for Rodgers. FiveThirtyEight.com’s Neil Paine says the same. 

Injury Report

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Player	Position	Injury Status
Davon House (Shoulder)	CB	Out
T.J. Lang (Ankle)	G	Probable
Clay Matthews (Biceps)	LB	Probable
Mike Neal (Abdomen)	LB/DE	Probable
Aaron Rodgers (Calf)	QB	Probable
Josh Sitton (Toe)	G	Probable

Injury statuses provided via Packers.com. 

As Mike McCarthy said at his press conference Friday, Aaron Rodgers is good to go: 

"

McCarthy on #Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (probable, calf): I don't have very high concern right now. #DETvsGB

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 26, 2014"

Unfortunately, Davon House will miss his third straight game, but McCarthy is optimistic for a quick return: 

"

McCarthy on Davon House (out for Sunday): Making progress. Hopeful for playoffs. #DETvsGB

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 26, 2014"

Everyone listed on the injury report save for House will be suited up and ready to go on Sunday. 

X-Factors and Matchups to Watch

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Travis Swanson vs. Packers Interior Defensive Line

With Raiola sitting out Sunday’s contest due to a severe case of boneheadedness, rookie third-rounder Travis Swanson will see extensive game action for the first time since he filled in at right guard, the Press-Gazette’s Weston Hodkiewicz writes.

And according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the former Arkansas Razorback struggled in each of the four games in which he played extensively, giving up nine quarterback hurries, three QB hits and a sack. To be fair, he started 50 games at center for Arkansas and should hold up better at his natural position as opposed to playing guard.

From the Detroit Free Press’ Jamie Samuelsen after Raiola’s suspension was announced:

"

Here's to you Travis Swanson. A city turns its lonely eyes to you.

— Jamie Samuelsen (@JamieSamuelsen) December 23, 2014"

Ndamukong Suh vs. Packers Interior Offensive Line

Packers rookie center Corey Linsley has played in tough environments (CenturyLink Field, The Superdome, Ford Field) and against tough opponents (Sheldon Richardson, Vince Wilfork, Fletcher Cox) to start his NFL career, Tom Silverstein of the Journal Sentinel writes.

Now Linsley will be playing against Suh for the second time. Thankfully, he’ll be facing him at home this time. "I'm fortunate to have already played him and gained some knowledge on how to play against him," Linsley said Wednesday. "I just have to take what I've learned and apply it and get better.”

Every quarterback worth his salt can step up to avoid pressure coming from the edges, but interior pressure is much more difficult to deflect. If Linsley and his dynamic guard duo of Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang can stymie Suh’s penetration, it’ll go a long way to winning the NFC North.

X-Factor: Calvin Johnson

Megatron has put together quite a resume in his 13 games against the Packers: 77 receptions, 1,245 yards and 12 touchdowns.

But, it took 156 targets for Johnson to get those stats, an inefficient 49.4 percent catch rate. And the Lions are 3-10 in Johnson’s 13 games played against Green Bay.

"

Calvin Johnson asked if he's sick and tired of the Packers: "Of course.... We want to finish things out the right way this year."

— Tom Leyden (@TomLeyden) December 24, 2014"

Johnson put up insane numbers in the 2011 finale (11 catches, 244 yards and a touchdown), but the Packers prevailed 45-41 with Matt Flynn at quarterback. Megatron’s greatest quality might be his ability to draw defenders away from No. 2 WR Golden Tate, who caught five of seven targets for 51 yards in Detroit’s 19-7 win over Green Bay in Week 3.

Prediction

Tom Lynn/Getty Images

There are a lot of stats, streaks and records at stake, but the numbers around which I can’t wrap my brain are zero and 16. That’s the number of wins and losses for Matthew Stafford on the road against teams that finished with winning records.

Basically, Stafford is incapable (thus far in his career) or beating a good team away from Ford Field.

Add that to the Packers’ dominance at home and sprinkle in the emphasis that Rodgers and McCarthy have placed on getting a first-round bye, and it's tough to pick against Green Bay here.

"

Lions last beat the #Packers at Lambeau Field on Dec. 15, 1991. One year and 6 days later, first-round safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was born.

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) December 23, 2014"

Also, this is a chance for Rodgers to cement his status as 2014 NFL MVP. If you watched last week’s win at Tampa Bay, you saw McCarthy call three straight passes at the goal line with less than four minutes left and the outcome of the game no longer at stake. The goal was to get Rodgers another touchdown pass, plain and simple, and I didn’t argue with it.

Look for more of that on Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 34, Lions 17.

Odds by Odds Shark: Green Bay (-9)

Follow me on Twitter @PeterSowards.