John Wall on Cusp of Entering NBA MVP Conversation
The Washington Wizards have all the makings of a full-fledged championship contender.
Or, they do whenever MVP-caliber point guard John Wall hits the hardwood, at least.
Behind 24 points, 11 assists and six rebounds from their All-Star floor general, the Wizards picked up their 20th win of the season with a 102-91 victory over the New York Knicks to kick off the NBA's five-game Christmas slate. It was Wall's 17th points-assists double-double of the season and ninth outing with at least 20 points and 10 dimes, both of which are tops in the league.
Wall tied center Marcin Gortat for the team lead with a plus-11 point differential, which basically equates to business as usual for the former. During Wall's 1,011 minutes this season, the Wizards have outscored their opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions. That net efficiency rating is higher than the ones put up by 29 of the 30 teams in this league.
When Wall takes a seat, so does Washington's effectiveness. In the 348 minutes Wall hasn't played, the Wizards have been outscored by 5.8 points per 100 possessions. That net rating would check in at 25th, nestled between the rebuilding Utah Jazz (minus-5.2) and the nine-win Los Angeles Lakers (minus-6.2).
In other words, there may have been more than sentimentality that led Gortat to dub Wall as the NBA's best point guard recently, per Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post:
"He's our leader; he's asked to carry a big load," veteran Paul Pierce said of Wall, per ESPN.com's Michael Wallace. "…He's going to do our scoring. He's going to get assists. He's going to be the defender. … He's asked to deliver. That's what he [does]."
There is no objective definition of an MVP, but the essential requirements involve leading an elite team. And that's the perfect way to describe what Wall has done this season.
He leads the Wizards in points (17.8 per game) and assists (10.4). Entering Thursday's action, he also tied for the team lead with a 101 defensive rating. Considering he helped limit sharpshooting Knicks point guard Jose Calderon to 16 points on 14 field-goal attempts and four assists in 36 minutes, if Wall's defensive efficiency mark moved at all, it only improved.
Wall's game has seen a number of improvements this season but perhaps none as important as the strides he has made on the defensive end. In short, he has learned how to turn his jaw-dropping physical gifts into a devastating weapon on that side of the ball.
"He's a freak athletically, and I thought in the past he used it only on the offensive end," Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers said of Wall recently, per David Daniels of The Washington Times. "And now he's a two-way player, and that makes him a heck of a basketball player."
On the season, Wall has held opposing point guards to a 15.8 player efficiency rating, per 82games.com. Just two years prior, point guards had enjoyed a 19.3 PER against him.
Assuming the Wizards have officially opened their championship window, they have done so on the strength of their defense. Washington's 99.6 defensive rating is tied for the third-best mark in the league, while this offense sits 13th in offensive efficiency.
It's impossible to put all the credit for the Wizards' suffocating defense on Wall's shoulders, but it's equally foolish to ignore his impact on that end. Washington has allowed 96.4 points per 100 possessions with Wall on the floor and 109.9 without him. The former would rate as the NBA's best, while the latter would rank all the way down at 28th.
There is incredible value in what Wall brings. And, as Pierce noted, that value is easily seen on either end of the floor.
Despite the fact that a consistent three-point shot still eludes Wall (32.9 percent), he hasn't allowed that to block his emergence as one of the league's premier point producers.
As a scorer, he has found efficiency where few others have: in that dreaded zone known as the mid-range. Prior to this season, he had never converted more than 38.6 percent of his shots from eight to 16 feet away from the basket. This year, he is knocking down 50.8 percent of those looks, a conversion rate that ranks sixth among the 53 shooters with at least 50 such attempts.
Lightning-quick off the dribble, Wall is also one of the league's best finishers on drives to the basket. He is shooting 53.0 percent on his dribble drives, which slots him ahead of the likes of Monta Ellis (50.3), James Harden (48.8) and four-time MVP LeBron James (47.5).
Wall, who packs a deceptive amount of strength into his 6'4", 195-pound frame, has also started punishing defenders in the post.
Wall is a lethal scoring threat on his own, but arguably his most potent offensive weapon is his ability to create for his teammates.
His assists alone have netted the Wizards 24.5 points a night, a number that trails only that of two-time assists champ Rajon Rondo (24.8). Wall ranks first in the league with 1.3 free-throw assists and second with 2.0 secondary assists.
The way Wall shifts between scorer and setup man is what has really built up his burgeoning MVP campaign. He passes better than a scoring point guard and lights the lamp too frequently to be labeled a pass-first floor general.
He isn't the only one shouldering double duties at his position, but few—if any—have managed comparable production across both categories.
| Stephen Curry | 23.4 | 49.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 26.7 |
| Kyrie Irving | 20.0 | 46.7 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 19.9 |
| Damian Lillard | 21.9 | 46.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 23.3 |
| Kyle Lowry | 20.0 | 44.6 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 24.0 |
| Chris Paul | 18.1 | 49.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 25.6 |
| Derrick Rose | 17.9 | 44.7 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 18.7 |
| John Wall | 17.8 | 45.2 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 20.8 |
| Russell Westbrook | 28.2 | 46.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 32.7 |
Wall isn't the NBA's best point guard, but he's in the discussion.
And the same is starting to be true of the MVP race. There are still a handful of names in front of him on that list, but Wall seems to be gaining ground by the day.
"Washington's All-Star point guard should be a lock for the Eastern Conference starting first five," wrote NBA.com's Sekou Smith. "Wall is...constantly making plays for his teammates, all while creating opportunities for himself to boot. That part of his game is truly as good as it's ever been."
Wall won't take the best statistics portion of the MVP vote—not if guys like Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis and James Harden continue to produce at their current rates.
And the best-player-on-the-best-team segment of the voting populace will turn to the likes of Curry and Marc Gasol before Wall enters the picture.
But if the award is handed out to the player who means the most to his team—which, in my book, would seem to capture the essence of being the league's most valuable—then Wall is quickly giving himself a puncher's chance.
The Wizards are contenders with him and a borderline playoff team without him. If that doesn't highlight the true measure of Wall's value, it's hard to imagine what would.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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