Biggest Surprises and Disappointments for Oklahoma City Thunder
This has been far from an ideal start to the season for the Oklahoma City Thunder, but things are starting to get back on track. They still have a strenuous battle ahead to lock up a playoff spot, but it’s not too early to think about some of the preliminary observations we can make about this year’s Thunder—both positive and negative.
The most glaring disappointment so far has obviously been the brutal injury bug that has plagued a good chunk of OKC’s roster, including Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Without those two on the court, the Thunder predictably struggled and got off to a disappointing start.
Furthermore, while the play of Reggie Jackson was a bright spot, it was somewhat disappointing to see that Serge Ibaka could not continue to expand his offensive game and become more of a focal point for the offense in the absence of the two stars.
Additionally, that period seemed like a perfect opportunity for head coach Scott Brooks to incorporate more ball movement on offense, but those preseason promises have not come to fruition.
It has not been all doom and gloom, of course. With a healthy Westbrook and Durant, OKC has quietly strung together the wins and moved up the Western Conference standings. Westbrook has been the main catalyst, putting up career numbers and playing with impressive efficiency.
Moreover, even though it didn’t translate to wins, Reggie Jackson was superb as the team’s go-to guy and has made a smooth transition back into his sixth man role.
There is still plenty of time for these trends to regress to the mean (or to the expected), but here are some of the most notable surprises and disappointments from OKC’s 2014-15 season.
Surprise: Russell Westbrook’s Efficiency
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Nobody doubts Westbrook’s ability to fill up the box score, but his critics have always pointed to his poor field-goal shooting and decision-making as chinks in his otherwise indestructible armor.
There are still some concerns with Russell Westbrook's performance (e.g. turnovers), but complaining about them is unnecessary nitpicking if he continues at his current pace.
He’s shooting better than ever before (46 percent from the floor and a true shooting percentage of 57, both career highs) despite a ridiculously high usage rate of 39.1 that leads the league by a significant margin.
That usage rate will go down as Durant continues to recover, but the general trend is for shooting percentages to increase when usage decreases, as players don’t have to force the issue as much.
Not only is Westbrook shooting well, but he’s taking care of the ball (relatively speaking) and only committing turnovers on 14.1 percent of his possessions (second-best mark of his career). Also, he’s assisting on an absurd 50.5 percent of teammates’ field goals when he’s on the floor.
His per-36 minute stats (31.6 points, 6.3 rebounds and 8.3 assists) are extraordinary. How extraordinary? According to Basketball-Reference, the only other player in NBA history to post per-36 minute numbers better than a 30-5-5 line is some guy named Michael Jordan.
I’m not comparing the two because Jordan is in a league of his own as a player, but we need to appreciate just how phenomenal Westbrook has been so far. Only “His Airness” has put up these numbers before.
Disappointment: Injuries
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This is the most obvious negative aspect of OKC’s season so far, but hopefully, the team can remain in strong health moving forward. It would be crippling for any team to lose its best player, especially when that player is the reigning Most Valuable Player. But it would be absolutely earth-shattering for any team to be without its best two players for an extended stretch, and the Thunder had to face that scenario early in the season.
As if losing two superstars wasn’t bad enough, Coach Brooks was also forced to play without Anthony Morrow, Andre Roberson, Perry Jones III and Mitch McGary for varying lengths of time.
Not only did OKC have to pick up the pieces without Durant and Westbrook, but it had to do so without its full bench group as well. Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams are the only players to suit up for every game, which is a pretty astonishing factoid considering that we aren’t even halfway through the season.
Westbrook’s excellence has already been discussed, and he seems to get stronger with every surgery. Durant, on the other hand, has missed a few games with a sprained ankle, which is cause for concern. Hopefully, the injury is unrelated to the foot fracture that caused him to miss the start of the season, but injuries are a source of angst hanging over the Thunder.
Surprise: Kendrick Perkins’ Rejuvenation
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Even factoring in Kendrick Perkins’ toughness, defense and leadership, it was hard to make a case for him to remain the starter while the promising Steven Adams lay waiting in the wings. Indeed, Adams earned the starting job this season, and we were left to wonder whether Perkins would even remain as a reliable rotation piece as his athleticism (which was never a strong suit to begin with) was waning.
Lo and behold, Perkins looks rejuvenated this season and has been an unsung hero for the squad. He has never been a box-score standout, but it’s easy to see the difference in the big man’s play this season.
He has looked more agile, which has resulted in a stronger defensive performance from the wily veteran. Last year, he was a tough low-post defender, but he struggled at times when defending speedy guards on the pick-and-roll. He’s been much better in that regard this season, and overall, he’s just playing with more energy.
Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman has been impressed with Perkins’ play, and she makes a good point that his offensive improvement is likely the result of playing against backups:
"The guy is a really good backup center. Of course, I’ve always thought he was a really good starting center on the defensive end. Of course, his offensive game lacked against other starting units. But against the reserves? We’ve seen Perk’s offensive game be rejuvenated. Thunder fans even seem to be warming up to Perk.
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Whether it’s playing against reserves, the extra motivation of losing his starting job or the incentive of a contract season, Perkins has been very good for the Thunder, and his professionalism in the face of demotion is another reminder why his presence in the locker room is so important.
Disappointment: Serge Ibaka’s Lack of Offensive Growth
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Serge Ibaka has done a tremendous job of improving his offensive game each and every offseason, and it’s clear that he’ll never be a reliable low-post scorer. At the same time, it’s pretty disappointing that he hasn’t made substantial advances as an inside scorer, and that fact was painfully clear when Westbrook and Durant were on the bench in suits.
The hope was that Ibaka would be able to take on a bigger role in the offense, and as Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman noted, that didn’t require an increased scoring output:
"Can't score with your back to the basket? Fine. Initiate offense from inside. Face up and shoot the short jumper. Pump fake, use one or two dribbles to get to the basket and finish or get fouled and go to the free throw line. Command a double team and find the open man. And for God's sake, rebound. Get second chances for your team and putback opportunities for yourself. All of that falls under the definition of a low-post game and none of it requires Serge to have his back to the basket.
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Ibaka has improved in other areas (which we’ll get to on the next slide), but it’s disappointing that the best low-post player on the team is probably Steven Adams (second year) or maybe even Mitch McGary (rookie).
Surprise: Serge Ibaka’s Three-Point Stroke
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If I am going to criticize Ibaka for not developing as a low-post player, it’s only fair to credit him for becoming a deadly shooter who now has range extending beyond the three-point line.
He’s almost hit more treys this season than in his previous five seasons combined, and he’s knocking them down at an impressive 37 percent clip. That places him among the ranks of the NBA’s best shooting bigs (e.g. Chris Bosh, Kevin Love and Ryan Anderson), and none of those players come close to him as a defensive force.
His elite rim protection makes him the best two-way stretch big man in the game, and his expanded range adds another dimension to the OKC offense and gives it more perimeter shooting and floor spacing—something it desperately needs.
Ibaka’s sweet shooting stroke is a double-edged sword because it does take him away from the rim and prevents him from doing some of things outlined in the previous slide. Nevertheless, there’s no point trying to make him do things he’s not comfortable with, and he’s clearly exceptionally comfortable as a spot-up shooter. His improved range makes him a dangerous weapon who defenses have to account for.
Disappointment: Jeremy Lamb’s Consistent Inconsistency
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If there’s one thing you can count on from Jeremy Lamb, it’s that he’s going to frustrate you with flashes of brilliance interrupting spurts of mediocrity. That’s hardly the prized piece OKC was hoping for in exchange for James Harden.
Lamb is still young, talented and athletic enough that it would be silly to give up on him, but the Thunder may have to get used to the idea that he will never materialize into the player they thought they were getting.
It would almost be better if he were always bad so that OKC could make peace with the fact that he should not be in the rotation right now and find other options. The reality is that he puts together stretches that are inspiring enough that he has to receive consistent minutes. Unfortunately, you never really know what you’re going to get from him.
For example, he put together a five-game stretch where he made 26 of 35 shots (74 percent), including 12 of 16 threes (75 percent). Those numbers are obviously unsustainable, but he followed them up with a seven-game stretch where he made only 11 of his next 39 shots (28 percent), including an ice-cold 6 percent from downtown.
Lamb clearly has the talent to be a useful scorer off the bench (at the very least), but it’s terrifying for a championship hopeful to have to rely on him to produce for an extended playoff run. We’ve seen that he can give the Thunder enough offense and playmaking to make the bench mob a tough foe for any opponent, which is exactly why it’s so disappointing to see him struggle to find any kind of consistency.
Note: All statistics are accurate as of December 24 and are courtesy of ESPN and Basketball-Reference.
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