Which of NBA's Unwanted Goods Has Most Value?
Josh Smith might need a pick-me-up.
So here's one: He is the best of the NBA's undesired assets. Cut loose by the Detroit Pistons for what head coach and team president Stan Van Gundy called "shifting priorities," per Vincent Goodwill Jr. of The Detroit News, Smith represents a real value to the right team.
We'll come back to J-Smoove later. First, let's run through the other misfit toys on offer.
The Brooklyn Trio
The price tags on Brook Lopez, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson are hefty, and the lengths of their contracts are daunting.
| Deron Williams | 2016 | $48 million |
| Brook Lopez | 2016 | $32 million |
| Joe Johnson | 2017 (player option) | $62 million |
But a lack of on-court results (and a looming luxury tax bill) have the Brooklyn Nets looking to move all three, according to a Dec. 10 report from Marc Stein and Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com.
Brooklyn has had the most traction with a Williams deal, but according to a report by Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, it sounds like the Sacramento Kings aren't interested unless they can get Mason Plumlee in the exchange. Williams could help the Kings and plenty of other teams, though he's no longer the superstar his salary says he is.
Lopez represents the biggest risk-reward proposition of the three. Recurring back and foot injuries are bad things for a big man, but the 26-year-old center's contract is the most manageable of Brooklyn's available big names.
Remember, we're only two years from a 2012-13 season in which Lopez posted a massive 24.7 player efficiency rating, per Basketball-Reference.com, and made the All-Star team. His durability (he played just 17 games a year ago) and defense make him an imperfect player, but even the slim prospect of his physical recovery should intrigue potential suitors.
Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio reports the Cleveland Cavaliers, very much in need of size, have interest in Bro Lo.
Then there's Johnson, who doesn't fit the modern mold of the three-and-D wing who scores with limited touches. His salary is the least palatable of all, but he can create his own looks, hit threes (he's shooting 39.6 percent from long range this year) and his size makes him a tough matchup for most guards.
Each of Brooklyn's costly vets has something to offer, but none of them can rightly be called "values" because of their age, injury risks and inflated contracts.
The Gunning Guards
Instead of dollars, it's production and attitude issues that should scare buyers away from these shot-slinging backcourt pariahs.
Smith was the first casualty in Detroit, and if Van Gundy's serious about cleaning house, you'd have to assume Brandon Jennings will be swept out next. His situation is a little different than Smith's; the Pistons don't have a backcourt logjam like the one they had up front.
Still, in macro terms, it's really hard to field a functional offense when the starting point guard shoots 36.8 percent from the field and 32.7 percent from beyond the arc. There's always the chance some team will be persuaded that a change of scenery might snap Jennings out of his funk, but this isn't a funk.
"Anyone know if Sad Van Gundy had any comment on @BrandonJennings layup to contested midrange jumper play? http://t.co/VFZAg4jYVT
— Haralabos Voulgaris (@haralabob) December 18, 2014"
He's shot over 40 percent from the field in only one season of his career, so it's safe to assume we know who Jennings is. On the hook for one more year after this one at $8.3 million, the Pistons probably don't want Jennings anymore.
Problem is, nobody else should either.
Cavaliers shooting guard Dion Waiters is another story.
Ball-stopping tendencies and declining production make Waiters a dangerous buy. But he's only 23, and if a team could get him to embrace a Jamal Crawford-type role, it's easy to see Waiters as a potent second-unit scoring leader.
Stein mentioned Waiters as part of a possible trade for a big man on Dec. 7, but he noted the difficulty Cleveland might face in moving him:
"Sources say that the Cavs are well aware landing a quality big man likely depends on selling on potential trade partners to take back polarizing shooting guard Dion Waiters. Cleveland rates Waiters' talent highly, but sources maintain that the Cavs have let a number of teams know they are prepared to surrender him if they can acquire a difference-making center in return.
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Scorers with upside—on rookie contracts, no less—don't hit the market all that often. Waiters has more value than anyone we've mentioned so far.
Woe Is Lance
The Charlotte Hornets are on a three-game winning streak (their longest of the year), and it may not be a coincidence that the modest surge started when Lance Stephenson went down due to a groin injury.
His failure to perform and the disappointment it has brought about in Charlotte are among the saddest stories of this NBA season. Making matters worse, we're now getting reports like this one from Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe:
"According to league sources, Stephenson has clashed with teammates, and coach Steve Clifford has placed the onus of Stephenson’s adjustment on the team’s veteran players, hoping they could police themselves and convince Stephenson to become more of a team player.
"
That's a bad sign.
Here's a worse one:
Like the other guards already mentioned, Stephenson stops the ball on offense, often seeking his own shot or a highlight assist, bogging things down. He's hit 15.1 percent of his threes and has gambled far too often on defense, compromising Charlotte's perimeter integrity.
Stephenson is 24, and his contract (three years, $27 million) isn't a cap-crippler. We know he can be part of a good defense if the system is strong and there's star power on the roster to keep him in line. At this point, though, it's beginning to look like there's no market for his services at all.
Smoove Operator
Having waded through the muck, we return to Smith, a player who could shift the NBA balance of power if he were to end up on the right team. Mercurial, frustrating and stubborn as he is, Smith's mixture of size and athleticism makes him the most intriguing talent available.
Better still, once he clears waivers, he'll be a bargain. The contending teams interested in Smith aren't flush with cap space, which means he'll likely wind up playing on a short-term deal for the veteran's minimum or, if he's lucky, a mid-level or biannual exception.
The Houston Rockets view themselves as front-runners to land Smith, a source told USA Today's Sam Amick.
As much heat as he's taken for his cold shooting and lukewarm effort, Smith could set the Rockets on fire...in a good way.
The worries are obvious: In his 11th year, Smith's athleticism may be declining. But his block, steal and rebound rates are all up from last season, per Basketball-Reference.com, a good sign he's still springy.
Houston could desperately use Smith's interior game and defense at the 4. There, he could rebound, line up alongside Dwight Howard and Trevor Ariza in a terrifying front line and take advantage of the defensive attention drawn by James Harden.
If the Rockets can get Smith to put aside his jumper, it's easy to see him ducking in from the weak side on Harden-Howard pick-and-rolls, gobbling up offensive boards and cutting from the wings. He'd also be another fearsome weapon in Houston's transition attack.
The Dallas Mavericks could use a big to replace Brandan Wright in the rotation, and owner Mark Cuban has said Smith is the kind of asset the team typically targets. The Memphis Grizzlies might want some insurance for Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph up front. Throw the Los Angeles Clippers in there too.
Really, any team in the brutal West needs to be looking at Smith as a way to improve its rotation. In a conference this competitive, every little edge counts—even if it comes with some risk.
The Rockets have a potential trump card that could factor into Smith's decision. He's pals with Howard, who's been pitching his friend on life as a Texan:
No player on the market is more valuable than Smith, and nobody has the capacity to alter the landscape of the championship race like he does.
Houston is very good right now. Smith, maligned and cast off though he may have been, could make it great.
