Fantasy Baseball: Roaming The Outfield

Take the title for what you will, but personally the outfield terminology works in most cases. There are certainly sayings as you go around the infield, but is there any position in baseball that has more euphemisms for what happens during the course of a game than the outfield? Leave pitching out of the equation and it is hard to find a parallel.

The trade deadline saw some movement, but only Matt Holliday has a major fantasy impact across the outfielders. Largely, that becomes more important in NL-only leagues than anything else, as his offense over the last month has left many owners hanging on to their early-round pick. Those that bought low love what they have received, and those that held on to him are getting rewarded for their patience.

Much of this space has been devoted to helping owners find help across their outfield positions, and that seems to be a good way to devote time. With injuries always being an issue, fill-in outfielders need to do more than just take up space on the bench. Additionally, as owners, name attachment does not do fantasy baseball managers any good. Production is production, plain and simple.

With this in mind, the end of the month means owners need to go corporate and look at some blind resumes. All stats over the last 30 days.

Player A:        .420 AVG, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 21 runs, 100 percent owned

Player B:        .356 AVG, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 17 runs, 70 percent owned

Player A is the MVP of July, Holliday. The major point to understand here is that Player B is no slouch in any of these departments. More home runs, basically even in RBI, and the average is not going to hurt many teams over the long haul.

Kendry Morales is brought up here a fair amount, but his production deserves mention. After hitting .273 in April, Morales hit .286 and .282 in May and June, respectively. In July, he went off to the tune of .326 and is at a very impressive .373 since the All-Star break. Owners are starting to take notice, but there is still time to grab him on the waiver-wire before he becomes too scarce to find.

How about a group of three for the next evaluation?

Player A:        .281 AVG, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 17 runs, 5 SB, 100 percent owned

Player B:        .289 AVG, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 15 runs, 2 SB, 100 percent owned

Player C:        .330 AVG, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 16 runs, 2 SB, 20 percent owned

Alright, obviously the point is to get everyone to look at Player C. There are many people that think Player B has been unjustly picked on in this space, but it is more because of his perceived value, and that his value can be found in many other places through waivers than it is because of him personally. Jayson Werth is a fine player, but his stats last month were equaled by Cody Ross, and this month he is no better than the other two players listed here.

Player A was left for dead at one point during this season simply because of a slump. Justin Upton rebounded to perform very well in May and June after a .250 start in April. He slumped over July to the point he hit only .240. Still, he is providing the production and this is by no means an indictment against his ability. He should be owned as widely as he is.

Still, Player C is holding his own in this trio. With the trading deadline having passed, and the movement of Nick Johnson to Florida, Josh Willingham’s place in the lineup for Washington becomes more stable. Willingham has done nothing but hit this past month, and had already won over the job in right field from oft-benched Austin Kearns.

Willingham will likely add first base to his eligibility by the end of the season, as it looks like the Nats will use him there more often than not. It is a complete shame that he is not more widely owned at this point.

On to the next group.

Player A:        .323 AVG, 8 HR, 14 RBI, 14 runs, 5 SB, 40 percent owned

Player B:        .287 AVG, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 17 runs, 2 SB, 100 percent owned

Production value is very close between these two players. One is seemingly in a more productive lineup than the other more than anything. Runs and RBI are created based upon those hitting around a specific player. It is tough to control for that across any player.

In this case, Player A is Garrett Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates while Player B is Adam Jones of the Orioles. Our friend on the Pirates started out of the blocks quickly. He has done nothing but hit, and is even helping to produce in terms of steals. What he is seeing right now stems from pitchers being much more careful because of the lack of punch and power in the Pirates’ lineup.

Garrett Jones has struggled over the last week or so as a result of seeing fewer pitches to hit. Still, owners need to realize that he is hitting in the middle of the lineup and will have the chance to drive in runs in more at-bats than not. When you are looking to replicate production, this Jones is worth taking a look at.

And one more twosome to cover here.

Player A:        .226 AVG, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 16 runs, 2 SB, 100 Percent owned

Player B:        .317 AVG, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 10 runs, 2 SB, 25 percent owned

Now, Player B has been brought up in this space a few times recently, but his ownership cannot seem to crack that 25 percent mark. It was on its way, but an injury derailed the train. It should not have based on the timeline he was going to be out.

Player A is Grady Sizemore. Whether injury or otherwise, Sizemore has had a rough 2009. He hit .239 in April, .211 in May, was on the DL in June, and only rebounded to hit .247 in July. The fact is, after back-to-back season of .290 in 2005 and 2006, Sizemore’s average fell it .277 in 2007 and .268 in 2008. This season, he is sitting at .229 as of this writing.

Is he dead? No. Sizemore still has speed and power. By all accounts, this season could be largely due to the elbow injury that sidelined him for most of June. He could very well come back next season and perform to the levels owners are accustomed to. Sizemore still has 15 home runs and has driven in 64. Largely, some of his problem has been luck. With a BABIP of just .254, Sizemore just is not hitting balls that find the holes.

That still is another statistic that has fallen each season since 2006, when he was at .342. Sizemore’s numbers shifted as the power increased. Fly balls are now 45 percent of his game, and nearly 50 percent this season. He continues to make contact at the same rate, but does not use his speed the way he did just a few years ago.

Player B in this scenario is Franklin Gutierrez. The removal of Mark DeRosa and Victor Martinez from the Cleveland lineup will impact the number of good pitches Sizemore sees and, for the short-term, change whether or not there are players available to drive him in.

Gutierrez does not suffer from that problem. He has done nothing but perform for the Mariners, and is a must-start in the outfield for them because of his defense. While he missed some time at the end of the month with a knee bruise, he did not miss a beat in terms of production. He has struggled in his last 20 at-bats, but is still hitting .291 for the season with 12 home runs and 45 RBI.

Owners may not exactly replicate the production of Sizemore, but the slight drop is going to be made up in terms of average. Gutierrez could potentially be in the mix to score more runs based on the performance of his lineup and the subsequent return of Adrian Beltre from the DL.

The key for owners is to continue to understand that it is not the name on the back of the jersey that equals production. Looking at players in a blind resume shows that there is plenty of offense to be found through the waiver wire. While you should not be dumping studs, look at these examples as cases where you can replicate what some top-tier offensive players have done over the course of a given month.

Continue to ride the hot hands and tweak your rosters. The playoffs are just around the corner.